Bush Leads by 9 in Colorado, Salazar Dominates Field

[mobuto]

Presidential Race

Rocky Mountain News/News 4 Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R). March 31-April 1, 2004. N=400 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.9:

General Election Trial Heat:
Bush Kerry Nader Unsure .

% % % % .

3-4/04 49 40 4 7

http://www.pollingreport.com/sub/co2004.htm
(Subscription Required)



Senate Race:

Rocky Mountain News/News 4 Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R). March 31-April 1, 2004. N=197 likely voters statewide:
.

General Election Trial Heats:


KenSalazar Bob Schaffer (R) Unsure .

% % % .

3-4/04 49 34 17 .

Ken Salazar Dave Liniger(R) Unsure .

% % % .

3-4/04 55 24 21 .




Note:

1. The poll was conducted by a Republican polling firm. This may or may not be significant, because data from the same poll, released yesterday, shows Democrat Ken Salazar with a commanding lead over his prospective Republican opponents. Any poll that shows Salazar leading by 15 over Schaffer and by 21 over Liniger doesn't seem too biased for the Republicans. But you don't know.

2. Nobody knows what Public Opinion Strategies considers a likely voter. They don't, as far as I know, release their formula.

3. The sample size is ridiculously small.

[LittleApple81]

1. But their acronym is POS...does that tell you something? n/t

[SaveElmer]

2. Only down 9 in CO at this point

Is not too bad. That means that 40% of Coloradans are willing to say they won't vote for Bush, even before the race between them has hardly begun.

And those are great Senate numbers

[PATRICK]

4. the hidden factor in polls

Is the "mushiness" number. That makes polls inherently sloppy and useless so they avoid the reality of the soft decision. The actual negatives against Bush may in fact be the the hardest factor in the race so far, with Kerry still in the process of creating and shoring up his positives. That could be good news both ways even with months to go but the polls won't yield such information willingly.

That is only a partial comfort since so much mush, besides getting people to the polls, makes any real prediction impossible. But it stands to reason that once a person distrusts and opposes his president that person is lost as a voter for Bush. That is the bleeding heel they will keep the spotlight from so shaky is Bush's deluded core and so intimidating his abusive power and extorted money. Additionally, no President has been so exposed with expectations of dirty politics(right down to names and methods)to actually running a tainted campaign(no matter what the spin is).

Only delusion or some unexamined crisis or Dem self-destruction can sustain even the possibility of a Bush victory. The economy is maybe his only real secure positive point and in that field many may be working against his illusion of "success" there as well.

The fact that American never voted for Bush in the first place remains the most formidable cause for our optimism. Carter after all partly lost his victory base. Bush cannot win by hanging onto his and has disaffected many of those too. Also(not to start a flame!) Nader also cannot possibly actually poll better than last time as too many national polls routinely show him doing(which calls those polls very much into question on the primping side).

Power is being brought to bear to help a weakling steer clear of the reefs, but the solution of taking him from the wheel has not happened yet. Like a bad super bowl much is brought to bear in keeping this contest a "close" one when the verge of a blowout might become very very apparent in the fall.

[Robb]

3. Colorado is going to blow everyone away

...when we go blue in November. And take a Senate seat. :thumbsup:

[rockymountaindem]

5. I don't know if we're going blue

but we're definately getting that Senate seat.

I'm a little skeptical of the polls in CO because there are so many registered republicans as compared to un-registered liberals and left-leaning independents. I think if we're going to win CO we need Kerry and Clark to go campaigning in military garb at Ft. Carson and Peterson AFB. But hey, that's just because I live in Colorado Springs and everyone I see is either a vet or on active duty. Perhaps I have the wrong impression.

[Touchdown]

6. Kerry can have a micro-brew in Denver!

Courtesy of our new micro-brewing Mayor Hickenlooper.:9

Then it's up to the slopes so he can call someone else an asshole. Just kidding!:evilgrin:

[Robb]

7. I know out here on the Western Slope

...most of the Dems I know changed parties to vote in a Republican primary a couple years back; they're showing up to help at the Caucuses, but of course can't actively participate because they forgot to switch back in time. :)