Bush loses to Kerry in November - Book it!

[kanrok]

I'm making my prediction here today, April 7, 2004. Bush will lose to Kerry by 8 percentage points or more. Yes, 8 percentage points or more! How do I know this? I feel it in my bones. The tide is turning and Bush is not only losing credibility, but he's losing core constituents. I've talked to at least 10 people in the past 3 weeks who I NEVER thought would vote for a Dem, and they are all disenchanted with Chimpy. I predict that we will all be wondering why we were worried about Bush and Rove. They will be crushed in November. The truth will out and we will arise victorious. Mark My Words.

[freetobegay]

1. But will he lose the ability to have the election fixed?

eom

[codegreen]

2. Bush won't win one state!

[forgethell]

8. Oh, he'll get Alabama

count on it.

[NNadir]

15. Possibly not.

Reality sometimes trumps ideology, even in Alabama.

I'm looking for Kerry to carry all 50.

[forgethell]

22. When

was the last time that anybody carried all the states? Kerry may well win, he might even have a landslide, but he won't carry Alabama. Think Dukakis.

[jsw_81]

29. Don't hold your breath

This will be a very close election. We might even see a situation where Bush wins more states than Kerry while Kerry prevails (narrowly) in the electoral vote.

[FrankBooth]

20. Hey forgethell, you going to vote for Roy Barnes?

NM

[forgethell]

21. No,

unless there's another Roy Barnes that I am not aware of, he's in Georgia. I vote in Alabama.

[FrankBooth]

25. For Prez?

We do that in every state.

[forgethell]

31. Is he running?

I missed it somehow. No, I'll probably go for Kerry

[FrankBooth]

33. You can just write him in

NM

[forgethell]

37. Why waste a vote?

What is the advantage of voting for this fellow?

[liberalpragmatist]

34. Do you mean Roy Moore?

Roy Barnes was the Dem governor of Georgia through 2003 - he lost the '02 election to Sonny Perdue. Incidentally, he was being talked abt as a possible Presidential contender. I don't think he would have, but even had he planned to, obviously his prospects declined some after losing in Georgia.

[AlinPA]

14. Bush* will carry a lot of the south. And Rocky Mt states. n/t

[elperromagico]

3. So, what would you predict as the percentages?

Kerry - 52%
Bush - 44%
Nader/Other - 4%

Something like that?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. One possibility:

Kerry - 51%
Bush - 46%
Nader - 3%
Other - 1%

:kick:

[elperromagico]

11. If Kerry gets a majority (rather than just a plurality), I'll be happy.

After 12 years of Presidents elected with less than 50%, and one President "elected" without so much as winning, over 50% of the vote could confidently be referred to as a mandate.

[kanrok]

7. That'll work.

I'll go with that. Is Vegas making book on this? I'm so freaking confident that I'll put up good money on this one.

[MSgt213]

4. Kerry can't count on it though. He needs to step it up!!!

[fearnobush]

5. Don't lose resolve, We need a 10% margin to overwhelm the stolen

Diebold BBV machines in November. Fight for Kerry as if your life depended on it.

[kanrok]

12. My resolve is strengthened, bolstered and rock solid.

I'm not taking anything for granted, I'm just totally confident that we are right and we will win.

[neverborn]

24. I'm 17 -- My life DOES depend on it

[kanrok]

27. You got that right.

[apnu]

35. Hell yeah

We need a massive voter turn out in November. The more people vote the less of a chance there it that extremist nutters will be in office.

[Striker Davies]

9. Correction: Kerry will probably have 8-10% more voters...

..voting for him, but the machines will record a strong win for Bush.

This whole "election" is nothing but a tatty pavane being danced out for the gullible who still think the US is a democracy.

You've got Bush for another 10-15 years, until he's removed by military force, not ballots.

[JaySherman]

10. They're starting to crack

With all the Nazi comparisons flying around, they're starting to look like the Nazi party post-Stalingrad 1944. Desperate, ineffective, and screwing up at every turn. Their whole grand neocon scheme, of which Iraq was the centerpiece, is collapsing around them. They're turning on each other to save their own skins (see Perle's new book, Howard Finemans's editorial today). They're still very dangerous though. I wouldn't put anything past them when their backs are up against the wall. We're not going to be safe until they're up against the wall in handcuffs.

[Layman]

30. The Bush Aministration Perp Walk and Historical Perspective

IMHO we need to look back to when Jack Kennedy had his run-in with the C.I.A. and the faction surrounding Allen Dulles. Instead of firing the lot JFK should have imprisoned them. We know from history the price he paid for his naive benevolence. These traitors need be brought to justice for our own survival or they'll come back to bite us on the ass or worse.

[Auntie Bush]

38. And a dozen little holes pointing at them.

[BeatleBoot]

13. It Ain't Over Until His Brother Counts The Votes

Like the bumper sticker says...

We really need to stay vigilant and dilligent between now and November 2nd.

Seat belt on...helmet on...here we go...and we go together...

Time to take our country back!

[jfxgillis]

16. I booked it in March 2003:

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_VS.html

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/DConv04.html

And that's Kerry SPECIFICALLY over Bush in November.

[kanrok]

19. No Joke?

I can put my money where my mouth (and heart)is?

[jfxgillis]

23. Yeah. I'm surprised you never heard of IEM

It's the granddaddy of all the "political futures" markets.

It's kind of hard to make a winning bet on Kerry now because the November "contracts" are based on percent of popular vote and even if he wins he won't get much over what he's paying now. But they'll issue "winner take all" contracts after the conventions, for which you can double your money approximately.

[RC]

17. What makes anyone even think

there will be any elections? And if there are and bu$h loses, that those elections will not be set aside because you can't change leaders in the middle of a war.

[kanrok]

18. Reminds me of my favorite political button:

Don't change Dick's in the middle of a screw: Vote for Nixon in '72.
On edit: I'm a "glass half full" kinda guy.

[katieforeman]

26. Totally agree.

Bush didn't really win the first time and he has turned off more people than he has won over during the past 3 years.

The information in the 9-11 commission reports make for a dmning case against Bush. He certainly can't run on 9-11 anymore.

He has done a terrible job in Iraq. he has pushed through an exterme agenda that most Americans disagree with. The deficit has exploded.

People don't trust him anymore. He can't claim to be a compassionate conservative or a uniter not a divider.

This could be a landslide. The race really is Kerry's to loose.

[GalleryGod]

28. Waist Deep in Big Muddy!

Oh-you want to ssee some group "trash" the White House??? Wait'll you see This Crowd!? They'll have bon fires on the South Lawn destroying documents and "Delete that Memo Marathons" on the inside.

PUNKS just a bunch of PUNKS

[ArkDem]

32. Your sample is bigger than some from Zogby!

.

[Nederland]

36. Win? Yes. By 8 pts? Not gonna happen.

This will be a very close election. I'm betting you only think that Bush is doomed because all your friends are liberals.