Will California go Red this November?

[flaminlib]

Just looking at the recall and some of the polling maps and it looks like there is a distinct possibility that we could lose it in November. Any information or stats to the contrary? Was the recall a fluke?

[Caution]

1. Bush's numbers if cali are dreadful

I believe that last I saw he was at 38% in california.

[eyesroll]

2. People like celebrities, remember that

I think Gov. Arnold could have won if he ran as a Socialist, ran as a Klansman, whatever. It's a fluke.

[onehandle]

3. Bull.

Bush currently has the lowest numbers in history in Cal.

I hope Rove wastes tens of millions there.

[TN al]

4. California didn't vote for a republican...

...they voted for the terminator. It was only after this dreadful act did they realize he was a republican

[AndyTiedye]

6. Arnie got the Diebold Vote, Bush* could too

We cannot be complacent about any state, even California.
We have no safe states anymore, and if we lose California it's all over.

[AP]

12. The risk is that Arnold makes people see Bush as being more like him,

and less like a Republican.

[still_one]

5. NO

the only reason Arnold won in the recall was because of the disdain for Davis

There is a major dislike for bush in California

[WI_DEM]

7. No

Latest Pew Survey gives Bush an abysmal 38% approval rating in California--well below his national numbers which are slipping into the low 40's.

Iraq is proving to be a major problem for Bush and the economy despite the rosy picture being described is still thorny as the economy would have to create alot of jobs in the next few months to make up for the 2.5 million lost under Bush. Consumer confidence which is a indicator of where the economy may go in the months ahead is also heading down--this too is tied to Iraq.

As for Arnold, as others pointed out--his election was not a victory for party but for personality. Dems far outnumber Reps in California and George Wimpy Bush is no Terminator.

[LynneSin]

8. Yep, I can see California going Red.....

.....red as in RED-faced ANGRY at that idiot Bush. :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

However, they'll vote blue

[Christ was Socialist]

9. yep

as soon as alabama goes secular blue

[WilliamPitt]

10. No. Bush is polling at 38% in CA. That number is dropping like a brick.

[AP]

11. If it weren't possible, Kerry wouldn't be spending so much time in CA.

[rockymountaindem]

13. Kerry was in CA for other reasons

He was in SD to talk about high gas prices because they have the highest in the nation and it was good political hay. He was also there for that fundraising trip because that's where a lot of the rich liberals with loose wallets live (think Hollywood). It's not because he thinks he might lose it.

[cally]

14. Kerry's in Cali to raise money!!

As always, California is used as the cash register. The latest Pew poll showed * has abysmal ratings in Cali. He was only one percent ahead of Kerry in very conservative, Republican counties surrounding LA. I forget the actual numbers, but most Californias think he lies. Kerry will win Cali unless * wins in a landslide in the country.

[mobuto]

16. Kerry's been spending a lot of time in DC too!

In fact, just yesterday, he delivered a major policy speech at Georgetown University.

If Kerry's in Washington, he must be in trouble - after all, DC Democrats outnumber Republicans by a factor of almost 10:1!

Or maybe you're missing something - Kerry's in California to raise money, he's in DC to catch the eye of the press corp and also to raise money (nice fundraiser last night at the Omni Shoreham) and he goes to Ohio to campaign.

[JI7]

24. he comes to California to raise money

[frylock]

15. never happen. too many dead marines from pendleton..

lots of stories on the news here in SD about all the Marines from Oceanside that have been killed over the last week.

[rinsd]

17. Doubtful....

Though Arnie and McClintock got a big majority of the vote, you have to weigh Arnie's celebrity as the biggest factor.

At this point Bush is not polling well in CA.

[elperromagico]

18. A note about election/polling maps.

Republican candidates typically win the majority of the state's land mass (remember that this site reverses the colors; Red is D, Blue is R):

2002 Gubernatorial (Dem: 47%, Rep: 42%):


2000 Presidential (Dem: 53%, Rep: 42%):



1998 Gubernatorial (Dem: 58%, Rep: 38%):


Yes, the map of the county vote for the second half of the recall vote looks bad for us, but we must remember that Schwarzenegger was competing with as many as four viable candidates (Bustamante, McClintock, Camejo, Huffington), and won several counties with less than 50% or even less than 40% of the vote - counties he might not have won had the race been between only two viable candidates.

A better view of our chances is provided, IMHO, by the first portion of the recall vote - in that situation, a county could only be won by gaining over 50% of the vote. Green is Yes on recall. Red is No.:

2003 Recall (1st section) (No: 45%, Yes: 55%):


Here, the counties fall far more into line with the previous results posted. I don't know if that tells you anything, but perhaps it will help.

[AntiCoup2K4]

22. While these county maps look threatening....

.... it's also worth remembering that the heavier populated areas of California are all on the western side of the state, and with the notable exceptions of San Diego (huge Navy presence) and Orange County (crazy enough to elect Bob Dornan) are solid Democratic areas.

The recall election was a fluke because you not only had Camejo, Bustamante, and who ever else dividing up the left of center vote, you had people voting for Ahnold the movie star, or even possibly folks thinking "well, he's married to a Kennedy, so how bad could he be".

The odds of any of the above voting for Junior aren't very good. And the Nader factor would even be less than last time, since he doesn't have the Green party behind him.

Diebold is the only thing which could turn California to Junior.

[Trajan]

19. Read the polls ...

That is all ..

[ButterflyBlood]

20. maps don't mean much

hell, * won more area in New York in 2000 yet still lost the state by 25 points. With *'s approval ratings at 38% and disapproval at 50%, there is no chance of him winning California.

[Democat]

21. Will Texas go Democratic?

You know the answer.

[Beetwasher]

23. Hahahahaahahaahahahaha! Yeah, right, keep dreaming!

And believe me, Kerry's not stupid enough to fall for this obvious bullshit either and waste his resources, but I sure do hope that Bush is stupid enough to try...

25. Possible, but not bloody probable!

California has been screwed by the national Republican party, even if they have a RINO Governor.

[aldian159]

26. Yes!

on a technicality. The incumbent gets blue, the challenger red. The GOP will be blue this time around.

[West Coast Democrat]

27. Not even close to being a swing state

and you know it.

[mot78]

28. No it won't go "red"

California is a safe blue state, and Ahhnold's election was just a fluke. Californians blame * just as much for their economy as Gray Davis. * job approval ratings in California are 38%!!!

[Piperay]

29. NO...

it's NOT going to happen. I live in CA and don't let it fool you that the groper got in, that was a fluke and the only way he got in was because the Democratic Governor was so disliked but repug and Democrats alike. (I couldn't even stand Gov. Davis myself, I had to hold my nose to vote against the recall)

[Zynx]

30. Not a chance.

If state and local elections meant a thing nationally, we would have chances in Kansas, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Indiana. Your analysis is nonsense.

[drumwolf]

31. We have a Republican governor for the following reasons:

-- Ahnold is a movie star, and that brought out a lot of non-political folks who just thought, "Yeah! Cool! The Governator!"

-- Ahnold is widely considered a RINO.

-- Governor Davis was EXTREMELY unpopular, and the Democratic alternative to Schwarzenegger, Bustamante, came off as a Davis clone and a charmless asshole.

The fact that we voted in a GOP governor does NOT mean we'll be voting for Bush this year.

[genius]

32. Shelley's doing his best to deliver it to Bush

He hasn't yet de-certified machines that changed the outcome in one race according to one county's registrar of voters.

[ronnykmarshall]

33. What?

Kevin Shelley is a liberal democrat from San Francisco.

[genius]

34. Kevin Shelley is the reason Bush is on our ballot.

Kevin Shelley is the reason we have electronic voting in California. He's certainly acting like he's on Bush's side.

[ronnykmarshall]

35. Yeah, that's it

Kevin Shelley, long time liberal democrat is really a Bush supporter.

Uh huh, yeah.