If Obama wins the popular vote and pledged delegate vote - is that as a 100% lock on the nomination?

[RiverStone]

OBAMA 13,000,655
CLINTON 12,411,705

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

The current popular vote count is from all the legal primaries/caucuses.

I can't fathom the Super Delegates going against the double whammy of popular vote lead and delegate count lead (which he has already won).

[galaxy21]

1. If the do, they;ll be riots in the streets.

I don't mean that as a threat. I mean it in a factual way. People will riot.

[K Gardner]

3. Yes, we will :-)

[hueyshort]

20. if that happens he will be the LAST black candidate

we will see for the next couple of centuries

[anonymous171]

27. Who said anything about being black?

It has nothing to do with race and has everything to do with the will of the people being ignored by party insiders.

[alteredstate]

32. WTF?

[alteredstate]

35. Obama cultists will riot only if their preconditions are met.

Obamamaniacs demand that Starbucks kiosks be placed at convenient intervals throughout the site of their civil disobedience, so they can keep their caffeine levels up with expensive lattes. Overturning and burning police cars is hard work.

[yourout]

2. Depends on how good Hillary is at blackmail and how good her lawyers are.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Not if Hillary decides his delegates don't count because they are from states

that don't count.

:sarcasm:

[shaniqua6392]

5. The Super Delegates can do what they want.

They are not there to necessarily go along with the popular vote. They are there to be a deciding factor if the national party leaders disagree with what the people have said. That is why they were created in the first place. Because the people can not be trusted to make this decision. What a stupid system. It makes about as much sense as the electoral college.

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. Let them nominate Hillary

And then lose 55-45 to Mccain. Then say I told you so.

[galaxy21]

9. Because the people can not be trusted to make this decision

Yeah, who needs a silly thing like democracy?

[shaniqua6392]

11. It is incredibly insulting, but true.

Here is a good link for an explanation. I found it helpful when I was trying to figure this crap out.
http://www.kptv.com/politics/15065561/detail.html

[hueyshort]

22. the states he is pulling are RED.

Wyoming is going for McCain. Miississippi is going for McCain.
Texas is going for McCain.

Figure it out.

[Joe the Revelator]

28. He's won 29 states so far. If they all go red, then Hillary has no chance at all

Or did I forget that her 13 states can tip the nomination in the face of a 30 state onslaught. :eyes:

[wileedog]

33. The Superdelegates are there

to safeguard against a dangerously unqualified or unhinged candidate somehow sneaking through the process. They are not there to play Kingmaker. They are CERTAINLY not there to ensure that the the party elite can hand pick a nominee. If you believe that Putin has just the party for you.

You would have a hard time proving that Obama is completely and totally un-electable given what he has done the past few months.

[joshcryer]

6. It'll be his to lose, yep. As long as he doesn't blow up and seats FL and MI in solidarity.

He's fine then.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

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[KittyWampus]

10. unless you can prove that includes Wyoming & adjusted totals from California, they're wrong

[leeman67]

12. umm...that's including Michigan and Florida which do not count...

Keep in mind that Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan.

[bigtree]

14. Obama supporters say votes cast don't count

great strategy.

[RiverStone]

18. The never ending arguement...

MI is a joke to include because Obama was not EVEN ON THE BALLOT!

FLA was nothing more than a beauty contest - and Hillary won the name recognition battle. But 1000's of folks did not vote because they were told IT WOULD NOT COUNT. Of course, we have articulated this on both sides countless times!

The only way we will ever solve this is for a re-do for both states. I think that is fair to both candidates and the voters.

But to count MI/FLA in th3e current popular vote totals is like counting spring training games in baseball as "officially" part of the legit MLB schedule. NOT!

[krawhitham]

19. Yeah when your not on the ballot they do not count

and Florida should not count too, I hear HRC supporters bitching it was the repugs that moved up the primary date Florida, but truth be known it passed 132-0 in the state congress, the Dems voted for it too

[leeman67]

29. great strategy?

yeah, right up there with agreeing to rules, and then trying to break them when things don't go your way.

[bigtree]

13. thanks LulaMay

link?

[SoFlaJet]

15. here ya go sweetie pie

THE MATH – March 8 – After Wyoming

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 8:
Hillary Clinton – 1,475.5 (549.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,598.5 (426.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 948.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/8/08)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Hillary Clinton – 1,230.5
Barack Obama – 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/8/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 245 (Source: CBS 3/8/08)
Barack Obama – 210 (Source: AP 3/8/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 340

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated.

Scenario 1 - Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%

Scenario 2 - New elections in FL and MI
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%

Scenario 3 - MI seated as is, FL seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%

Scenario 4 - FL not seated, New election in MI
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%

Scenario 5 - MI not seated, New election in FL
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%

Scenario 6 - FL seated as is, MI not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%

Scenario 7 - FL seated as is, New election in MI
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%

Scenario 8 - MI seated as is, FL not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%

Scenario 9 - MI seated as is, New election in FL
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%

[tandem5]

21. it is likely that *neither* will win on pledged delegates alone...

so if its left up to super delegates to decide, why should they go with the pledged delegate count over the overall popular vote if it turns out they differ? Since they (super delegates) have complete discretion why would they consider pledged delegates over the overall will of the voters?

[angie_love]

24. wheres the link liar? I haven't heard that on ABC or NBC

[fujiyama]

25. How are they getting the vote numbers for "registered democrats"?

Some states don't even have a party registration. On primary day here in MI, we had a Dem ballot or a repuke ballot. Anyone can chose either. Indies can go whichever way.

Also, it's deceptive to even include MI (and FL to a lesser extent) in the vote totals because Obama wasn't on the ballot in MI! And FL voters were told a while back their vote would not matter anyways.

[MojoMojoMojo]

16. Republicans should not pick the Democratic candidate.

Thats what the pop vote and assigned delegates represent.
Go by the # of registered Democrats only.

[fujiyama]

23. I don't think that necessarily works

Some states don't really have anything in the way of party registration. For example in MI, you aren't registered one way or the other, but you simply chose the ballot you want - republican or democrat.

[Zynx]

17. We'll see after May what the popular vote looks like.

[scheming daemons]

30. Obama will win NC by more votes than Hillary wins PA by.....

...net gain for Obama.


He'll also win Mississippi by more votes than she wins Indiana... another wash.


The rest of the states are too small to make a dent in the popular vote lead.

[Rageneau]

26. Not if he plays by the rules, it isn't.

A lot has been said about "playing by the rules" when it comes to Florida and Michigan. Well, the convention has rules, too, and they should also be played by.

The rules say no candidate can be nominated unless he or she receives 2025 delegate votes. It doesn't matter who won the most states, or the most caucuses, or the popular vote, or which candidate is coolest.

What matters is the rules. Obama or Clinton both have to find some way to get 2025 delegate votes.

[scheming daemons]

31. Exactly right... and if he's ahead in pledged delegates and popular vote, the superdelegates will ..

vote for him to maintain the integrity of the primary system.

[Johnny__Motown]

36. It isn't a lock in the sense that SDs Can't vote against him. It is a lock that they Won't overturn

that type of a lead.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

34. I'd Say The PV Would Have To Be Above 1% And The Delegate Split Above 100.

If both of those things fail, then I think it's all up in the air.