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There has been alot of yapping about the trouble Obama will face because he (barely) lost some traditional Democratic strongholds. As if California and New York were going to suddenly turn Red because of the intense enthusiasm for Sen. McCain to become Hot-Headed-Old-Coot-in-Chief.
But 2008 is not 2004. The last Presidential cycle was marked by intense enthusiasm to elect Anyone-But-Bush vs. a heavy turnout of religious fundies praying that they could ban gay marriages.
However, this time around, the fundies have no great love for McCain, who doesn't really have a whole lot of hot buttons to press without giving up his straight talk reputation. So either he pleases the base and alienates the independents or vice versa. The Rove coalition is dead.
After 2006 showed the GOP as the corrupt den of snakes and hypocrites that they are, and people understand the difference between tough talk and an actually effective foreign policy, there is little enthusiasm in the conservative ranks. The cognac conservatives (sort of) wanted Romney, the Jesus freaks (kinda) wanted Huckabee, and they all got stuck with Old Man McCain in the Middle.
GOP turnout, despite a wide open race, was pathetic even when it was competetive. Meanwhile, Dem turnout has broken record after record.
Despite polls showing relatively close proximity between the two Parties, with an edge for Dems, the enthusiasm gap - measured by turnout and fundraising - is enormous.
Obama broke all fundraising records in February - even the one he set in January. Do you really think that McCain is going to compete with him dollar for dollar?
Obama bridges between his base and independents. McCain is standing on a fault line between the two. And the GOP base is seriously looking at being the minority Party for the next quarter of a century.
For the record, here are some key turnout stats:
Nevada 117,559 (D) 44,315 (R)
California 4,416,779 (D) 2,565,761 (R)
Colorado 120,001 (D) 65,400 (R)
Illinois 2,000,000 (D) 880,000 (R)
Massachusetts 1,244,133 (D) 496,171 (R)
New Jersey 1,108,044 (D) 558,727 (R)
New York 1,800,000 (D) 630,000 (R)
Louisiana 384,243 (D) 161,151 (R)
Maryland 760,314 (D) 286,843 (R)
Virginia 973,931 (D)475,484 (R)
Wisconsin 1,099,661 (D) 403,568 (R)
Ohio 2,233,156 (D) 1,018,865 (R)
Rhode Island 186,036 (D) 26,970 (R)
Texas 2,865,945 (D) 1,384,563 (R)
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