Clinton advisers think the superdelegates may pick Gore, neither candidate may win on first ballot

[Herman Munster]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/119851/page/1

What happens if the superdelegates are just like the rest of the voters—i.e., they can't definitively decide between these two candidates? "What happens if they split the superdelegates?" asks an adviser to the Clinton campaign. The roughly 350 superdelegates who have not yet endorsed are all free agents. There's nothing that says they have to act in concert, and they'll work to avoid anything that fuels conspiracy theories. "My real worry is there is no back room," says this adviser. Clinton says she'll go all the way to the convention in August. If there's a stalemate, the superdelegates could decide to pass on the first ballot to test the candidates' strength at that juncture. We could then be way back to the future, the first time in the modern reform age that a candidate is not chosen on the first ballot.

If that happens, the convention could turn to a compromise candidate. Al Gore is the most obvious and perhaps the only contender who could head off a complete meltdown in the party. After all, he already won the popular vote for the presidency. It was only because of a fluke at the Supreme Court that he was denied his turn at the wheel. No one could deny that he's ready on day one to assume the presidency. "It's the rational choice if this turns into a goddamn mess, which it could," says the Clinton adviser, who doesn't want to be quoted seeming to waver about Clinton's chances of securing the nomination.

Gore has kept his silence throughout the Democratic nominating season. But his name will surely surface as his party ponders the possibility that they will not have a nominee by the time the convention rolls around—especially since John McCain enjoys a huge head start in launching his general-election campaign. We have the Ted Kennedy forces to thank for the freedom of choice that all delegates enjoy, not just the supers. In 1980, Kennedy argued for an open convention, while President Carter was determined to keep convention delegates bound. With a 600-delegate margin over Kennedy, Carter prevailed. As a result, any delegate voting against the candidate he or she was elected to represent could be replaced by an alternate and thrown off the convention floor. The rule was strict and enforceable. Kennedy couldn't dislodge any of the Carter delegates. Two years later, after Carter lost the election, the phrase "in all good conscience" was inserted into the rule, belatedly giving delegates the latitude Kennedy had sought.

What does that phrase mean? In the eyes of the Clintonites, it holds the promise of some room to maneuver en route to the nomination. By the time August rolls around, if public opinion polls show John McCain beating Obama by 15 points, then what does a delegate or a superdelegate "in all good conscience" do? This week's general-election matchups with John McCain have Obama up by 12 points and Clinton up by 6, but that could change with Clinton pounding away at Obama's inexperience on national security. She's shameless, telling a military audience this week that she and McCain bring a lifetime of experience to the job of commander in chief, while all Obama brings is a speech. An unbloodied Obama fares better against McCain, but where will he be after Clinton is through with him?

[KittyWampus]

1. Clintons have insulted and ignored Democrats in too many states. She won't get 50% Supers and she'll

be behind in pledged delegates by about 100-150

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Once again Chicago '68

and I am sure the republicans are chumping at the bit

By the way what part of Al Gore ain't interested are people purposely missing?

[deadmessengers]

6. He's not interested in running in the primary.

That doesn't necessarily mean that he wouldn't be willing to be drafted and run in the General. And, he'd positively WAX McKeating in the General election.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. He is NOT interested, something about a recovering politician

and quite frankly, I respect that, and understand it.

So stop dreaming

And trust me, I WISH he did... but he will not and I doubt that ANY Gore will ever run again, even for dog catcher

[Florida22ndDistrict]

27. RE: He is NOT interested

If you think that Al Gore has no interest in become POTUS then consider this. Al Gore has been pushing to get a new global treaty on climate change into effect by 2010. In order for such a treaty to be successful, the United States will need to sign on and comply to its terms. The president of the United States is the only individual in the world that can send such a treaty to the Congress to be ratified. Many scientists, have stated that we must begin to act by 2010 if we want to be able to mitigate this situation. Then you have statements by Gore like this:

“I am under no illusions that there is any position in the world with as much influence on the course of events, then the position of the president of the united states. So if one were interested in influencing events as I am, you would have to take that into account.” - Al Gore 5/25/2007 Charlie Rose Show

If he has no interest in being POTUS, why then would he say things like this:

“You know, I haven't ruled out the idea of getting back into the political process at some point in the future,” Gore said. “Don't expect to, but if I did get back, it would be as a candidate for president, not in any other position.” - Al Gore 12/10/2007 CNN International

If he has no interest in campaigning this year, why would he release his positions on many of the hot button democratic issues that are so widely discussed this primary season:

Universal Health Care
http://current.com/items/84987281_health_care_is_a_right

Iraq War
http://current.com/items/84986481_get_the_troops_home

Forth Amendment Rights /FISA
http://current.com/items/84986911_americans_deserve_more_protection

Separation of Church and State
http://current.com/items/88283801_no_official_role_for_government

Abortion
http://current.com/items/88817754_who_makes_the_decision

Gay Marriage
http://current.com/items/88817757_gay_men_and_women_should_have_the_same_rights

You are right to feel that Al Gore is turned off by the process, but make no mistake he is definitely interested. I think Gore, has been waiting for something like a brokered convention. His main issues with campaigning seem to be how the media frames the debate. He takes issue with the horse race, how the media focuses on things like a candidates heir cut, what they are wearing, and how much they weigh. He takes issue with the fact that debate moderators chose questions that avoid policy positions and how they chose entertainment over facts and reason. What he seems to be waiting for is the people of the United States. He wants us to stand up and demand that our issues be addressed. I think he would gladly except a draft by the people of the United States, if we proved we would stand with him, and demand congress focus on the issues, but the question of course seems to be are we ready yet.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. At this point I am willing to take bets

that he WILL NOT be the POTUS or even the candidate.

Trust me, I wish he was running. I wish he was the POTUS, I wish this nightmare was not real.

But my reality based person tells me...that as much as I WISH he ran (and yes he could beat the tar feathers of the GOP candidate), it ain't gonna happen. That is WISHFUL thinking

And if he is hoping for a brokered convention... be careful of what you wish for.

[Renew Deal]

3. I would take Gore-Obama in a heartbeat.

That would be an amazing ticket.

[skater314159]

8. THAT would be FUCKING AWESOME.

And it would go a looooooong way to making repairs to all that Bush Co. has done to our country and the world over the past eight years.

[Exilednight]

11. Don't say it - I don't want to get my hopes up. .....

Damn, now I can't stop thinking about it and it's all your fault.

[TheDebbieDee]

4. Interesting...........

But, if drafted, would Gore serve?

[joshcryer]

15. Yeah, he has insisted that he has not made a Sherman-esque statement.

;)

[TAWS]

5. Will people stop spreading the idea of a compromise candidate, it will never happen n/t

[deadmessengers]

7. Why? n/t

[MonkeyFunk]

24. Because the only problem we have

is that BOTH remaining candidates are too popular. There's no reason to pick a third candidate who has no money, no organization, and no expressed desire to run.

It would be almost impossible for him to put together a campaign organization in the time after the convention, and millions of Democrats would give up on the party if they do this.

[skater314159]

9. Why? Because you say so? nt

[MadBadger]

10. IF and I say IF that were to happen, it would be a Gore/Obama ticket.

But it wont.

[Selatius]

12. If Gore rejected running for 2008, he probably rejected for a reason he feels is good.

If it's as good as he thinks it is, why would tossing delegates at Gore make him see any different? It's rhetorical, of course. Only Gore could answer that.

[IndianaGreen]

13. Yep. and a Martian invasion force will land in Grover's Mill, New Jersey

All of these scenarios miss one point, the superdelegates will not go against the voters, and the voters choose Obama.

[ProSense]

14. "Clinton advisers"? They've been so right and honest about things to this point.

What a joke!

[tekisui]

22. Just the latest "Hill Mary".

[Larkspur]

16. If Clinton pounds on Obama's experience and keeps praising McCain

she also severely hurts her chances of winning in Nov. McCain will cream her on experience.

[Beregond2]

17. Gore

Oh good grief. Fantasyland.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

25. RE: Fantasyland

I'm curious why you think that concept is off in fantasy land. Neither candidate was strong enough to decisively win the primary/caucus process. Super delegates can vote however they want to, as can the pledged delegates (even though they are expected to vote the way they are pledged for the first vote). All you have done with your vote, has been to elect a delegate to represent you at the convention. If there is no winner after the first ballot then, Gore could easily be drafted at the convention as could many other compromise candidates. I hope I don't need to explain the reasons why Gore's name bounces around so much.

[Chasing Dreams]

19. Gore is rusty

While I think he would be the best President our country could possibly have, he hasn't been on the campaign trail in a long time. One major gaffe - a distinct possibility for a rusty politician - could throw it McCain's way. No, the Supers will go with the popular vote and pledged delegate winner, the one who proved his coattails tonight in the Special Congressional Election to replace Hastert in Illinois: Barack Obama.

[loveangelc]

20. what is this "first ballot" thing? what does that mean?

[Florida22ndDistrict]

21. RE: what is this "first ballot" thing? what does that mean?

Most years, one candidate is able to acquire a majority of the delegates through the primary/caucus process. This year both of the leading candidates have failed to complete their objective, so the decision will be made at the convention. We the people are represented at the convention by pledged delegates (accept Florida & Michigan at the moment). The convention assembly is also partially composed of super delegates. Some of these supper delegates represent us indirectly, being that they hold elected office positions, while others are basically party royalty.

This year no determined winner will enter the convention so the convention will be contested and candidates will fight to be the party's elected candidate. Pledged delegates while not legally bound to vote for the candidate they are pledged to represent are expected to represent the will of their state. Candidates can remove delegates they feel may be disloyal so the pledged delegates usually vote the way they are expected to for the first vote. If no candidate wins the first vote, pledged delegates are released and can vote freely. Other compromise candidates can be introduced onto the second ballot to try and reach a resolution. The voting goes on until one candidate emerges with the required number of delegates. To give a little perspective, in 1924 it took 103 ballots to nominate the parties candidate.

What many people are considering is the possibility that neither of the two front runners will emerge the winner after the first vote. This could happen if the super delegates split oddly so that neither candidate reaches the number needed. Maybe a majority of the super delegates will vote for John Edwards on the first ballot, making it numerically impossible for either candidate to win the nomination on the first go. They could theoretically do that if they feel voting for either of the two would lead to a loss in November for what ever reason (there are many reasons to consider).

[Skidmore]

23. The Clinton machine throws another pile of stink against the wall

and prays that it sticks.

[MaineDem]

26. This is ridiculous

There is too much nonsense being thrown around. Unbelievable!