**With Wyoming Obama's magic number drops to 453

[grantcart]

A combination of primary/caucus delegate successes(187), additional superdelegate endoursements (11), and realignment of the California Delegate distribution (2) have netted Senator Obama with a total of 200 delegates this week, reducing the number of delegates he needs for nomination from 653 to 453. An additional Mississippi (40).

Even with Clinton's victory in RI and Ohio Obama has netted a +5 in delegates from a week ago. Missisppi should add to that lead.

Senator Obama needs 46% of all the remaining pledged delegates and undeclared super delegates to get the nomination.

Senator maintains a lead of delegates by 101.
1) UpComing contests


Mar 11 Mississippi 33 delegates

Apr 22 Pennsylvania 158 delegates

May 3 Guam 4 delegates
May 6 Indiana 72 delegates
May 6 North Carolina 115 delegates

May 13 West Virginia 28 delegates

May 20 Kentucky 51 delegates /

May 20 Oregon 52 delegates

Jun 3 Montana 16 delegates
South Dakota 15 delegates

Jun 7 Puerto Rico 55 delegates

Total Remaining Pledged Delegates 599 Obama currently has 1571 Clinton currently has 1470


2)Total Remaining Super Delegates 274 Obama currently has 203 Clinton currently has 244

Total Delegates Remaining 980

3)Obama's magic number is 453

Clinton's magic number is 554

4)Obama's required percent of outstanding delegates is 46%

Clinton's required percent of outstanding delegates is 57%

5) Results from Tuesday: The allocation of delegates from March 4th primaries and caucuses

. . . . .Obama . . . . Clinton . . .Net Gain for Obama


Vemont . . 9 . . . . . . .6 . . . . . . .+3

R. Island. 8 . . . . . . .13 . . . . . . .-5

Ohio . . .65 . . . . . . 74 . . . . . . .-9

Texas. . .98 . . . . . . .95 . . . . . . .+3

NBC's projection is that Hillary will have a net of + 8 Delegates from all four states



6) SuperDelegate update for March +11 for Obama

3/6 DNC Thurman (IN) REP Rehall (TX)DNC Thompson (NV)

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/2008...
http://www.wsaz.com/news/headlines/16339466.html
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgraham...


3/5 DNC McLin (OH) DNC Kidd (GA) Burnett (IL) +3

http://1290whio.com/includes/news/indepth/5279860_Dayto ...
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/news/stories/2008/03/...


3/4 DNC Fowler (SC) Long (GA) Brooks (TX) +3

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgraham ...
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/news/stories/2008/03/0 ...
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgraham ...


3/1 DNC Weinike (WI) and Burkhalter AL for Obama +2

http://www.madison.com/tct/news//index.php?ntid=275115
http://www.al.com/newsflash/regional/index.ssf?/base/po ...


6) Endorsements by Office

Senators Obama 11 Clinton 10
Govenors Obama 15 Clinton 13
Congress.Obama 70 Clinton 72




Sources DemcomWatch http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ohio-texas-verm ...

NYTimes http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results ...

http://calitics.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5248

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Hillary has no path to the nomination

All she is doing is helping her buddy McCain.

[Barack_America]

3. Well, there is still ONE option...

[ProgressiveEconomist]

7. Clinton has 1470 Pledged Delegates? theGreenpapers says 1229:

From http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-PU.phtml :

"2008 Democratic Pledged and Unpledged Delegate SummaryNeed to nominate: 2,024.

Candidate_ ... _Total_ ... Pledged ... Unpledged
Clinton,_H_ ... 1,473.5 ... 1,229.5 .... 244.0
Obama,_B .... 1,573.5 ... 1,370.5 .... 203.0"

In your lead-in, I think you substituted TOTAL for Clinton and Obama PLEDGED.

Your Superdelegate estimates match theGreenpapers data.

For the past 10 days, most of the media have been saying Obama is about 140 ahead in pledged delegates (from primaries and caucuses) and 40 behind in Superdelegates, for a net advantage to Obama of about 100. Your figures imply a net advantage of only 60.

[Egnever]

2. So what does she have to achieve in PA to significantly close the gap?

to gain say + 60 delegates?

[earthlover]

5. Her goal in PA is not to win the nomination....PA is a critical state in November...

She knows that all the character assassination she does of Obama in PA now will have lingering effects in November when Obama is the nominee. So PA will be harder to win for the Democrats. And this would make the Democrats less likely to win the presidency in 08. So that makes it more likely for Hillary to be able to run in 2012.

Other than that, I have no clue why she wants to make PA voters think Obama is baaaaad.

[grantcart]

6. It literally cannot be done

What many people don't understand is that most of the delegates are awarded on a district by district basis,

A district that has 3 delegates will always split 2-1 - you would have to get 86% to get all 3. If you got 51% or 63% it would still split 2-1

A distict that has 4 delegates will almost always split unless someone gets 76% in that distict and then it would split3-1

A district that has 5 delegates will split 3-2 unless someone gets 80%

And so on. In addition the only one that gets the really high percentages is Obama because his AA districts have so much concentrated support. Also there is a bonus based on how the district voted in the last couple of elections. This again tends to benefit Obama. (For example in Texas the AA districts didn't vote for Bush 4 years ago but the Hispanic ones did.) There really is no possible scenario where Hillary can significantly reduce the margin of delegates. MSNBC was projecting that a strong Hillary win in PA would probably net her 10 delegates, or less.


Clinton's key advisers know this and have basically accepted it.

Schumer also suggested that the current system of awarding pledged delegates is flawed. "The delegate counts are so close, and you can win a state by quite a lot and you still don't win the delegates by quite a lot,” he said. "Maybe that's a flawed system. But that will be for the next election, not this one.
http://www.observer.com/2008/schumer-avoiding-self-destructive-end-clinton-vs-obama
"I think if you win a district 55 to 45," he said. "The delegates shouldn't be three to three. Yes, I think proportional representation makes some sense but they sort of overdid it."

[Egnever]

8. A strong win would be ??

63%?

[grantcart]

10. That would be a fantastic win for Hillary. I think they were thinking 57%

but the point is that the difference between 57% and 53 % might not add a single delegate unless some of that was really concentrated in a few important districts.

[Egnever]

15. So for giggles we give her the 63 %

the delegate spread at that point would be roughly what? 20? 30?

[TexasLady]

14. Grantcart, Im glad You understand all of this

because it drives me batty. So nice to have you break it down for us mathematically challenged souls.

[XemaSab]

17. Here's a simple site that lets non-math people do the math, such as it were

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

[skids]

4. +1 IL-14 Rep Bill Foster

...almost certainly will endorse Obama, since Obama's endorsement/ad/ground game just won him the election tonight.


... and I didn't read -- have you counted the "pickup" delegates elected by the delegates at their convention?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4968647

[grantcart]

19. Foster did announce for Obama link below

Rather than keeping a seperate tally I just post the latest net numbers from DemconWatch. So there may be gaps between my numbers but the actual net numbers are very good and scruitinized by a large group of people who are watching all the details. They have extensive discussions for example if a superdelegate says, "I like Obama", if that is an indication of endoresement or not.

They also follow all of the follow up of the delegate distribution process and scruitinize it with other sites doing the same.

Me? I cut and paste. And as in the example shown down thread will manage to get that wrong as well.

[Major Hogwash]

9. I guess Hillary will just have to give 110% in order to win then, huh?

Maybe she can get in touch with that old gym coach of hers who used to give that speech.

LoL

[grantcart]

11. Ever since I was in junior high I have hated that expression lol

what do they want me to do have an out of body experience and steal 10% from the guy next to me lol I would love a coach that would say normally you morons do about 55% but if you go out and do 60% we will have a blow out.

[bigbrother05]

12. K and R

[Petrushka]

13. "3/6 DNC Thurman (IN) REP Rehall (TX) DNC Thompson (NV)" ? ? ?

"REP Rehall (TX)"?

"Rehall"?

"(TX)"?

:shrug:


Make that: REP Rahall (WV)



Now . . . :eyes: . . . take a gander at a few images from THAT super-delegate's congressional district:

http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=mountaintop+removal+mining&btnG=Search&Images&gbv=2

[grantcart]

16. tks and I didn't think anybody actually read the details lol

http://www.wsaz.com/news/headlines/16339466.html

[grantcart]

18. With Bill Foster's amazing victory Foster (IL) for Obama

FOSTER:

Thanks Obama and lets this zinger go -- "For those of you following the election closely, there's one more pledged superdelagate today."

Foster is done talking.

You can read a discussion thread that is really quite humorous that follows the returns and the reactions between Foster and his opponent, a dairy owner termed the "milk dud" here

http://blogs.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconblog/2008/03/coming_election_night_live_blo.html#comment-36614

[grantcart]

20. morning kick

[grantcart]

21. magic number now 451.5

With Foster's election the number of delegates increased by one and the magic number increased by 1/2 to 2024.5

An additional SD has been added for Obama


-9-08 - Added DNC Mary Jo Neville for Obama


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/politics/bal-ho.politics09mar09,0,6928829.story

[bicentennial_baby]

22. FYI, PR is now June 1st

:hi:

[IndianaGreen]

23. Obama has a good shot at winning Indiana

Hillary is much despised in here, and the GOP can't cross over to the Dem primary.