The Problem With National Polls, And Why Obama Is The Stronger Candidate

[Exilednight]

National polls give you a percentage of voters, but we do not elect our President by popular vote - Just ask Al Gore.

In the current SurveyUSA poll, Obama has a greater chance of winning the nomination.

The first map shows Hillary v McCain


Solid Clinton--77 (eleven or more points): AR, DC, IL, MA, NY, RI
Lean Clinton--126 (six to ten points): CA, CT, FL, ME, MD, OH, VT
Toss Up--135 (five points or less): DE, HI, IA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NM, OR, PA, TN, WA, WV, WI
Lean McCain--136 (six to ten points): AL, CO, KS, KY, LA, MS, NV, NH, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA
Solid McCain--65 (eleven or more points): AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY

This map shows Obama v McCain


Solid Obama--163 (eleven or more points): CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, NY, RI, VT, WA, WI
Lean Obama--66 (six to ten points): CO, DE, MA, MN, NM, OH, OR
Toss-up--186: (five points or less): AK, FL, MI, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NC, ND, PA, TX, VA
Lean McCain--25 (six to ten points): IN, MO, MT
Solid McCain--98 (eleven or more points): AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY


Obama has 163 solid electorals from 12 states. Hillary on the other hand has 77 solid electorals from 6 states.

Remember, it's electoral votes that matter, not how many people vote for you.

[lastknowngood]

1. He can win the nomination but not the GE all red states would

remain red and many blues will go red, I love my country but is racists and sexist. Obama will lose 47 states and Hillery will lose 40. All the Mclame has to do is stay vertical and he wins.

[bhikkhu]

9. "too racist and sexist"...so they would make you believe

the repugs, that is.

Spend awhile watching the rallies and caucuses and looking at the massive turnouts for a woman and a black man. Then decide how racist and sexist the country is - not based on something a neighbor or family member said, but based upon what every single state is demonstrating:

the combined enthusiasm of democrats and independents and even repugs for our female and black candidates surpasses any enthusiasm for any white candidate I have seen in my lifetime.

Don't let them convince you otherwise, though they will certainly try.

[powergirl]

2. This has been my point too

I want a Democratic president - not a nominee. That is why Obama should be the nominee.

[MadBadger]

3. I think in the end of the day, Obama would win NJ as well for sure.

[goldcanyonaz]

4. It's BS to include Nevada and Michigan in the Obama column but not in Clinton's.

[Quixote1818]

6. Why? Thats what the polls showed. Winning against a Democrat is much different than against a

Republican. Of course Obama is going to win most of the Democrats that Hillary will and he will pull in some Republicans and more Independents.

[LisaL]

5. Those polls are useless so far ahead the GE.

Republicans haven't even started their negative campaign yet.

[suston96]

7. Pretty pictures and they all over the internet...but...y'all better do some serious demographics...

...consider the percentages of women voters, non-whites, hispanics, voters under 35 years old, 35 t0 50 years olds 50 and over... IN EACH STATE.

These numbers are available but not quite as exciting as the red and blue coloring book in the OP.

And yes, it's the electoral votes that matter, but those votes in each state are determined by the popular vote IN EACH STATE.

[Exilednight]

8. I'm sure they have already done that. SurveyUSA has been the most accurate ...

throughout the election cycle.