show me a state hillary can win in the general election that obama can't

[unblock]

seriously, just because hillary won massachusetts, do we really think that massachusetts would vote for mccain over obama if it came to that???

cf: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4987045&mesg_id=4987045

[Starbucks Anarchist]

1. The state of denial.

[Jackpine Radical]

32. Every goddam time.

Jumped again.

[dsc]

2. Arkansas

[Cha]

27. Yeah, ol' hilary will be out campaigning for

mccain in Arkansas. I can see that.

[XemaSab]

44. That's the only one I can think of

:shrug:

[Hippo_Tron]

55. That's fair, I think there's a reasonable argument that it's semi-home turf

[rug]

3. Indiana.

With Bayh.

[tokenlib]

7. Even with Bayh Indiana is doubtful...n/t

[saltpoint]

14. Agree. He's won several state-wide ballots but the general election in

the Hoosier State is a whole nutha smoke.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

23. Evan Bayh and Bill Nelson.

Great company.

[Hippo_Tron]

58. Not a chance in hell

Obama ain't winning there either. Bayh is reasonably popular but not enough to carry the state for someone else in a national election.

If you've ever watched the West Wing you might be familiar with the quote "Indiana is voting for Ritchie. If there were anybody less competent on the ballot than Ritchie, that's who Indiana would be voting for." Substitute Ritchie for Bush or McLame and you have the basic idea.

[tokenlib]

4. The media pundits are real fools on that question....

..and the Clinton big state argument is idiotic.

[ruggerson]

5. florida

[MonkeyFunk]

Arkansas, New Jersey,

maybe Florida.

[ruggerson]

9. yep, New Jersey

Ohio as well

[CTLawGuy]

57. New Jersey consistently overpolls republicans

remember when Sen. Menendez was "going to lose" two years ago?

[NJSecularist]

28. Just stop

Obama is not losing New Jersey! Period!

It's not going to happen. Neither Democrat will lose New Jersey.

[MonkeyFunk]

39. I'm just going by recent polls

which is at least SOME evidence. Your opinion isn't evidence.

[NJSecularist]

40. Every 4 years at this point New Jersey is close in the polls

And every 4 years the Democrats always take the state.

[Hippo_Tron]

61. It's not even every four years, it's every year

Forrester was going to beat Lautenberg, Forrester was gonna beat Corzine, and then Kean Jr. was gonna beat Menendez. Forrester got his ass kicked twice and Kean Jr. got destroyed.

[boston bean]

6. Yes, McCain may win MA. I hate to keep repeating myself, but

if you don't live here, you have no idead how un-liberal we really are in most of the state.

Plus add in an unpopular governor who Obama's campaign mimicked and you have a real battle that he will lose.

[unblock]

16. i have lived there in the past, my parent live in worcester, and i'm in nearby ct

and i'm very sorry to say i actually voted for weld once upon a time.
i'll never vote for a republican again, notwithstanding the fact that he was running against john attila the silber.

i know what you're talking about, but they still ain't voting for mccain.

[papau]

22. With O western Mass is a lock for McCain - 495/Worcester/Boston is Hill -not O - country

[gaspee]

43. That's what worries me about Ma

The Massholes I know have huge buyers remorse over Patrick. It does not bode well for Obama in the general. Their campaigns are similar, right down to the rhetoric.

And they're called Massholes for a reason - like RI'ers, they are not what I'd call "nice" people. Down to earth and would give the shirt off their back to family and friends, but not especially nice or "hopefull." And all the ones I talk to are not about to fall for the "hope and change" rhetoric again. Fool me once and all that.

My best friend lives in Mansfield and every time I talk to her, she bitches about the state government. I'm in MA a lot - since I live about 8 miles from the border and gas is 10 cents cheaper a gallon. It's the same all over the state. And I've never met a Masshole who loves Kerry and Kennedy - so I must be hanging in the wrong crowd. You're more likely to find me in Taunton, Rehoboth, Seekonk, Mansfield Worcester or Southie than you are to find me in Cambridge or on the Cape or Vineyard.

MA is not a lock for Obama.

Get West of Worcester and he'll be lucky to get 40% of the vote.

[Hippo_Tron]

59. McCain ain't winning Massachusetts, you're just making shit up

[redstate_democrat]

60. So Mass is in trouble with Obama

And I guess Kennedy, Kerry, Duval, won't have any influence there at all?


:rofl:

[sniffa]

8. Some electoral map on another thread

shows Obama losing NJ, PA, and such. :rofl:

[papau]

10. PA and Ohio and Wisconsin and Michigan and Florida and Tennessee and NJ, CA, ARK - perhaps- or at

least she would have larger margins

[tokenlib]

11. Michigan????

Yeah we Michiganders who are bleeding are about ready to cut the other wrist as well.

[papau]

15. Last I looked (I don't trust Ras) Hill polled better than O in the general

[Quixote1818]

13. Accept for the fact that she would bring out the Republican base

in record numbers, while Obama might actually win some Republicans and independents. Comparing what she won in the Dem primary to the General, is apples and oranges. Obama clearly has an advantage across the board in most states in the General.

[papau]

17. Like women and seniors would not be more likely with Hill than with O?

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

38. I don't really see McCain being a big draw for women.

Seniors, maybe. But not women.

[papau]

51. OK - women over 40 then - I agree the under 40 crowd would be Obama'a

[unblock]

21. and there's a key difference. obama would energize the democratic party

while hillary would energize the republican party. even if hillary polls better, obama would get us better turnout.

[papau]

24. college energy for Obama can't be denied - but in past it dies during fall mid-terms

[Cha]

26. And if her tricks get worse she might even

have others sitting home in record numbers. There's been enough cheating the last 8 years but hilary, penn, wolfson, and all her other little surrogates haven't quite glommed onto that yet..and it will be just deserts if Obama wins and they're left holding a bag of moldly hilary smoke and mirrors.

[thoughtcrime1984]

62. Wisconsin? Now I know you're on something....

No chance. NJ, CA- will go Dem anyway. Don't count on OH, FLA, or TN at all for her. MI will be better for Obama, PA may surprise the crap out of you in six weeks. I disagree with pretty much your entire post, save for AR.

[maddiejoan]

12. okay

Florida, Ohio and Arkansas

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. There are very few states one COULD win but not the other

The real discussion centers on which states Clinton or Obama are more likely to win. For Clinton Arkansas is one she would win and Obama would lose. Clinton would win New Jersey, it is possible Obama would lose there. Clinton has a good chance of winning West Virginia, Obama does not. Clinton has a good chance of winning Florida, Obama does not. Clinton has a good chance of winning Pennsylvania, that is problematic for Obama. Clinton is more likely to win New Mexico away from Republicans than Obama is, with strong hispanic support there. Clinton is a long shot to win Oklahoma, Obama has no chance there.

[progressive_realist]

48. Oklahoma isn't going to go Dem

In this general election. It is one of the few states I consider impossible for the Democratic candidate to win this year, along with Utah, Wyoming, and Alabama. I fully support the 50 state strategy for the benefits it will bring down the road, but in terms of OK being in play in 2008 -- no way. Neither Clinton nor Obama has a snowball's chance.

I am skeptical of Florida, too, thanks to the entrenched Republican corruption there. I doubt the election will be any more fair than it was in 2000. I could be pleasantly surprised, but any strategy which banks on winning Florida is foolish.

Clinton definitely would pick up AR and Obama won't. This is the one state I am willing to unequivocally put in this category.

I think either Dem wins NJ and NM.

I am very interested to see how things play out in PA and WV in the next weeks, because right now I think Obama's biggest GE weakness is in the OH/PA/WV region. He needs to raise his appeal there. If he is able to do so, it will substantially increase my confidence going into the GE.

Of course, you didn't mention the flip-side: Obama is likely to carry VA, IA, WI, CO, and NV, all of which look dubious for Clinton.

[Hawaii Hiker]

50. I'm an Obama supporter, but I do think Clinton could win Florida because

of all the New Yorkers that either have a second home there, or former New Yorkers than live permanently in FL. now...She'd make that state very competitive, & could realistically win it....

[kentuck]

49. Fooled again.

When was the last time a Democrat won over 50% of the popular vote, excluding Al Gore? It was 1976 with Jimmy Carter. Unfortunately, Bill Clinton never won 50% of the vote. Thanks to Ross Perot and other factors.

The point is that Democrats do not win the popular vote very often in presidential elections. It would not be wise to think the next election would be much different. Since the Civil Rights Act of 1965, the Republicans have controlled the South in most elections. Could Hillary win anywhere except maybe Arkansas? Could she really win OH, TX, and FL? Could Obama really win Georgia, NC, or AL?

It's all guesswork. Nobody knows. We can be cautious and vote like the last time or we can vote our consciences. Many voted for John Kerry because they thought he was a war hero and he could match up well with the "war President", George W Bush. Little did we know that he was actually a "traitor". We found that out after the Swift Boat Veterans got thru with him.

[557188]

19. Ohio and Florida

The two most important states in November.

[LisaL]

20. OH.

[WVRevy]

25. Ohio?

You honestly think Ohioans are going to choose a rabid free trader in McCain?

That's funny.

[557188]

35. Yes

Its incredible that people ignore the truth and facts about Ohio.

OBAMA WON'T WIN THIS STATE PERIOD.

Obama got utterly destroyed and humiliated with all the momentum going into March 4th. Had the weather been better I think Hillary's MOV would've been even larger.

And you'd have to be a hardcore Kool-aid drinker to think Obama would have a shot in Florida.

Obama cult members can bury their heads in the sand about these states, or big state strategy, but the fact is that is what the system dictates for the Democrats. Hillary wins these states and Obama doesn't. Those are the simple facts.

[LisaL]

47. OH for sure. I don't think either can win FL.

But I think Hillary can win OH. And I don't think Obama can win OH.

[joshcryer]

29. Yep.

[redstate_democrat]

63. IF we keep spreading this FALSE

meme, that Ohio and Florida or the most important states, then we will fucking lose in November. I don't understand why some Democrats basically follow the lead of Republicans EVERY CHANCE THEY GET. While Dems were looking at Florida in 2004 thinking it was an "important" state because of 2000, Repugs were BUSY stealing Ohio. They play to win. They are playing to POACH states from us, while we're playing to a couple of "big states" and Ohio and Florida for God's sakes. Stop looking over there when you should be looking over THERE. They want Dems to unnecessarily put ALLL of our eggs in the Florida and Ohio baskets, while they go pick off a state we weren't even thinking about. We should be directing our attention to states that we could possibly have a good chance of flipping. We can't win if we keep the same damn strategy we've used for the past 16 years. It won't work.

[Sulawesi]

30. Illinois?

[jalynn]

31. Tennessee

[TriMetFan]

33. o.k. I'll play.

Lets start with Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida and then I have to say the state I was born and raised in Texas. I think Texas will be close but crazy McCain will win that by 8%.

[Fresh_Start]

34. arkansas and florida nt

nt

[newfie4]

36. NJ, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, possibly Ohio & Florida

[PM7nj]

37. New Jersey? haha

I saw that poll too, Obama and McCain were tied. John Kerry and Bush were tied a few times in early NJ polls too, SUSA even had bush up in one. I would be amazed if Obama didn't win NJ. I could see him getting way more NJ independents (which is like... 60% of the state) than Clinton or McCain. Also, if McCain keeps trying to push his social conservative credentials, he will lose lots of NJ republicans, who are usually socially liberal.

[NJSecularist]

41. Yup, it's the same thing every 4 years...

New Jersey is the ultimate GOP fools gold...

[newfie4]

45. they came closer in 04 though

And Obama is not going to play well in the middle to upper middle class suburbs and with the soccer moms. These voters would be held by clinton but are vulnerable to mccain if obama is on the ticket.

[NJSecularist]

46. He'll do no better than GW Bush in 2004

And he may do worse. Going all the way back to Reagan, and that includes both Bushes (but not Dole) they have traditionally done well in the suburbs that you have mentioned, which include Monmouth and Ocean County. I don't seeing McCain doing as well there, simply because he is not as conservative as those areas would like.

[fujiyama]

42. I'm an Obama supporter but contend that she has the edge in the following states:

Ohio, PA, WV,FL, and AR.

I don't seriously believe NJ is in play. But her margin of victory would likely be greater than Obama's in that state.

[Awsi Dooger]

64. Very good list

Of course, it depends on the national margin. This year the partisan index (state relationship to national percentage) will be more volatile, but overall I'd estimate the Obama weakness in Ohio and Florida is worth about 2-3 points to Hillary. That's how far I think he needs to be above her in the national margin to offset his vulnerability in Ohio and Florida.

DUers and Democrats need to realize that. The national comparison between Hillary and Obama vs. McCain shouldn't be evaluated at point zero. That's incompetent handicapping. If you are in danger of forfeiting the two most vital swing states it's a severe uphill climb to 270 electoral votes. The odds of sweeping the lesser states is dramatically worse than annexing either Ohio or Florida.

If I were certain Obama could withstand the general election scrutiny and maintain an edge of many points nationally, at least 3-5, compared to Hillary, vs. McCain, I'd be much more comfortable with Obama as the nominee. But since I prefer Hillary in regard to the economy, and I'm always skeptical about quick risers in sports or politics, I'm very uneasy about Obama in November.

He apparently fares better demographically than Hillary in Virginia and Colorado. That shouldn't be discounted, since adding either state partially offsets weakness in Ohio and Florida. But I would caution that Colorado and Virginia have been many points more red on the federal level, compared to the national average, than Ohio or Florida. It is a wild leap of faith to assert Obama, or anyone, could pull states we have trouble with, while faring worse in the high populous pivotal states. It's something I'm not ready to do.

And Obama's edge in Colorado and Virginia is negated somewhat by Hillary's superior chance in Arkansas.

If someone could show me national polling in late September, accurately evaluating where Hillary would be vs. McCain at that point, and where Obama would be, this becomes a simple evaluation. Minus that knowledge I'm more comfy taking a chance on Hillary, in a cycle with Democrats owning the generic advantage. I use late September because that's the typical foundation point in a general election. Late comebacks in presidential general elections are not something you want to rely on.

[fujiyama]

65. I hate to admit it but I agree

Unfortunately, for various reasons I can't get behind Clinton at this point but I'll readily admit the advantage she has in those states compared to him.

However, I think she may playing more defense in IA, WI, and OR. Granted, the other more electoral-rich states listed would offset that.

I think it is great we are seeing states generally not having a voice in the primary process having their votes count, but I also fear a greatly divided Dem party, especially if the nominee does not win the most number of pledged delegates. It would make me feel uncomfortable for sure.

[joeprogressive]

52. Fairytaleland, it is just west of Dreamworld n/t

[nonconformist]

53. The prize in the GE... Ohio. nt

[woolldog]

54. Detailed analysis on this:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/212016/8597

[theredpen]

56. I posted some data here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4992323&mesg_id=4992323

Others have added to it

[VotesForWomen]

66. maybe FL for starters? you're old enough to remember 2000, aren't you? nt