Why Obama will do better in the General Election

[Quixote1818]

Comparing how the candidates do in Democratic Primary states to the General Election is bogus. It's like comparing apples and oranges.

1. Obama will likely pick up most of the votes Hillary got just like Hillary will likely pick up most of the votes Obama got.

2. Hillary will bring out the Republican base in record numbers while Obama might actually win some Republicans. I suspect many Republicans will stay home if Obama is the nominee because he doesn't get their blood boiling like Clinton does.

3. Hillary will not win independents, Obama will. They were not a factor in most Democratic primaries but will be in the General.

4. Obama is bringing out younger voters in record numbers and people who have never participated before. If he is out then those voters will vanish perhaps forever.

5. Blacks will come out in record numbers for Obama. They may stay home this time after the below the belt campaign Hillary ran. Even if they do come out, it won't be anywhere near the numbers Obama is getting.

[featherman]

1. Very succinct and very true

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. I see it. You see it. But...

[papau]

3. sigh - women aren't more "energized" over Hill? -GOP will stay home with O? - "HOPE" is now defined

[Upton]

4. Agree completely

the GE and the primaries are two different things. The Clinton people have got to grab on to something, even if it's illogical.

[yourout]

5. My best guess is he will do 10 points better than Hillary in the GE.

Thats one in ten people that will vote for Obama but not for Hillary.

[pbca]

6. Exactly

given the state of things some Hillary supporters won't come vote for Obama, and many Obama supporters won't come vote for Hillary

The difference is that Obama brings in Independents, moderate Republicans, youth and black voters - Hillary doesn't bring in anything extra: Only die hard dems who she hasn't completely pissed off.

[Swamp Rat]

7. You are assuming that the KKK, and every bigot will suddenly lose their passion for their own hatred

I think racists will turn out in droves, like an invasion of cockroaches, to vote against Obama... AND Hillary.

[Quixote1818]

9. I think the KKK is just as prejudice against women as they are against blacks

I just read an article today in the NYT's that suggests that their is much more bigotry for women than blacks these days. Obviously nothing to be proud of but it certainly puts Hillary in a more difficult situation than Obama.

[Swamp Rat]

12. Wouldn't suprise me one bit. n/t

[Quixote1818]

21. .

[EFerrari]

16. I think the Klan hates women just as much and Hillary a little more.

That's quite an achievement, when you think about it.

[Swamp Rat]

20. estoy de acuerdo

I recently saw a photo of neo-nazi youths holding and pointing 9mm guns at the camera, AND the girlfriend of one of the thugs. If I recall correctly, he had her in a choke hold, and was pointing a gun to her head.

[OzarkDem]

8. I wishes were horsed, beggars would ride

Bottom line, it comes down to winning the electoral vote in the GE - and Obama can't do it.

[Mags]

10. No he can't

[Quixote1818]

11. I just made the case why he can and Hillary can't. What is your case? nt

[FrenchieCat]

13. That is reality......

Yet many Hillary supporters are comparing apples to oranges.

Their logic that because Obama didn't win California or Mass during the primary, he cannot win these states during the GE is warped at best. It's like saying that because McCain won Wisconsin in the primary, he will win it in the General Election. Or because Romney won Utah, McCain will lose Utah in the GE. :crazy:

And to those who are "concerned" of running a Black man, please know that Obama will bring out more than enough new and young voters who are very much color blind when it comes to Barack, Blacks who in the past have not bothered voting just cause they didn't care enough to, and Independents who are anti-Iraq war and will not vote for McCain, but don't care at all for Hillary. This fact plus Obama's gift at GOTV organization (and with apparatus already set up in just about every state), and his clear powerful message that Hope wins over fear will more than overtake whatever the number is of racists who still inhabits this nation (most of which you'd think won't be voting Democratic anyways, regardless of who the Democrats put up).

And in terms of those who believe that White Women will stay home with Barack on the ticket, and not their beloved Hillary; they won't. If there is one thing more important to them then voting for a Woman for President, it is to safeguard theirs and their daughters right to choose. Staying at home on election day for such women is not an option considering the possibility of McCain being the one to select 1-3 Supreme Court judges.

And as far as White Blue Collar workers not coming out to vote for Barack (as stated in a hateful thread currently up on DU), most are not racists and they will vote their pocketbook and their best interest, and if they voted for Hillary during the primaries, they will most certainly vote for Barack Obama...and to believe that they are so racist that they might not, is saying that many Democratic men are not sexist but are racist. I don't believe this lie being perpetuated by the media as well as by Hillary supporters.

In terms of the Hispanic vote, again, they are not voting out of prejudice against Black people, they are voting for the familiarity and history that Hillary represents. To believe otherwise is to underestimate the intelligence of our Brown brothers and sisters and the discrimination that many have had to endure.

and so yes, primary apples and General election oranges simply should not be used as a measure as to who would win the GE because it isn't logical.

[Quixote1818]

15. You don't think McCain can win Wisconsin?

Come on! Give him more credit! He can do it! He has Hillary behind him!

[FrenchieCat]

19. well, IF Hillary is the nominee......

certainly there is that chance.....which is part of her overall problem.

Because unfortunately, as unfair as it might be, there are more people out there who don't like Hillary than there are people out there who don't like Barack and McCain. And considering how Hillary has ran her campaign to date, she has increased those numbers, rather than decreasing them. It is a sad fact for Hillary Clinton, but a fact nevertheless.

[EFerrari]

14. I think you are exactly right. n/t

[LibertyorDeath]

17. Thanks sane analysis

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/11/12/obama_wideweb__470x418,0.jpg

[mikekohr]

18. Obama Will Lift the Ticket, -Clinton will energize the darkside-

The Republican base will fall in line (as they are now behind Senator McCain). Our party regulars will get behind our nominee, regardless of whether that person is Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.

It will be the swath of the demographic that is Senator Obama's strength that will decide who wins the White House. This same demographic shows affinity for Senator McCain, as it has shown in the past for Ross Perot, and Ronald Reagan. It's support put RapMaster Ronnie over the top in 1980 and 1984 and it's support for Perot in 1992 and 1996 allowed Bill Clinton to slide past his Republican competition.

I live in a county that has been dominated by the Republican Party since 1832. Senator Obama is attracting support among people here, and across the nation, that have never shown desire to support any Democrat.

We will make big gains in the Senate and in the House this fall. But like it or not, to win the White House, and to lift the entire ticket even higher will require the ability to attract support among independents, moderates, and to be able to peel away that thin sliver of reasonable Republicans. Senator Obama has demonstrated that ability. Senator Clinton, not so much.


mikekohr

[CyberPieHole]

22. Obama WON'T pick up ALL the voters who back Clinton...enough will stay away or vote McCain...

to make the difference. But, then, Obama doesn't need Clinton's voters. Obama can "Hope" to win without them.

[Quixote1818]

23. And Clinton won't pick up all the voters who back Obama. Including me

someone who use to support her.