Clinton 142 Del Deficit; Obama 252 Away From 50%+1

[Khaotic]

As it stands right now Hillary has to make up a delegate deficit of 142.

Link: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Even with wins comparable to "Super Tuesday II" she'll barely put a dent in it.

Why is it that soooooo many Hillary supporters forget that with every state both Hillary and Obama win delegates?

The only way for Hillary to pick up delegates is for her to win HUGE.

Huge is winning a state by 60%+ ... and she's only done that once, in Arkansas.

Barack has done it several times throughout the race, and with WY he did it AGAIN!

Does anyone remember thread after thread after thread here at DU about how Bush ignores Science? How * just refuses to see it.

Are Hillary supporters refusing to see Math?

If Obama pulls out Miss. w/ a huge margin and makes it another 60%+ win then what?

Even if Obama doesn't gain at all in the polls in Penn., and after the primary there the reality is exactly as the polls stand now, 52% - Hillary, 37% - Obama; then essentially it's a huge loss for Hillary.

Here's something Hillary supporters need to admit, the MSM is in her back pocket right now.

They want the Democrats to wage war against each other until August. That's what they want, that's where the ratings are.

The MSM aren't talking math right now ... AT ALL! Do you think the math somehow escapes them?

No way!

They know that Obama is only 252 pledged delegates away from getting to the 50%+1 mark. They know this, and they know how HUGE that is once he gets to it.

He will get there before Hillary. The only way she can't prevent it is to win at least some of the remaining states the way Obama won Hawaii. H-U-G-E!!!

I mean really ... are there ANY Hillary supporters on DU who realistically believe Hillary will win an upcoming contest (any of them) by more than 70%???

Maybe, just maybe, she'll pull that kind of win out of Puerto Rico or Guam, but not a real state.

After Obama reaches 50%+1 then it's reality time with the knowledge that Obama has finished with more pledged delegates than Hillary and the ONLY way for Hillary to win is with Super Delegates.

I really believe that the Democratic Party won't let that happen and even with HUGE MSM Hillary support and "momentum"; Hillary will be asked (behind the scenes she'll be ordered) to quit.

The party doesn't want this thing decided by Super Delegates ... period.

Even at that, Hillary's lead in Super Delegates is under 40. When Obama gets 50%+1 any remaining lead Hillary has in Supers will be gone as the Supers waiting for that to happen will go to Obama.

Like it or not, there are a pretty good group of Supers simply waiting in the wings to endorse the candidate who wins the pledged delegate count.

Now, before Hill supporters throw Mich. & Fla. in to the debate. The reality is still the same, and know the reality that she will not win either state by more than 60% ... not even Florida. Obama hasn't even stumped down there yet (during the primaries) because he choose not to break the rules like Hillary. Once he stumps there (if there's a revote) then he'll bring her advantage under 60%.

It's all about the math, unless of course 2+2 doesn't equal 4. Maybe that's true in Hillary-land.

[FreakinDJ]

1. Are Hillary supporters refusing to see Math? - LMAO

So true it is hysterical

[Uben]

2. What is 50% + 1

How does that factor in?

[Spider Jerusalem]

4. Fifty percent of total pledged delegates plus one.

Which makes it mathematically impossible for Hillary to even hope to EQUAL Obama's lead, much less surpass it (not that she has a realistic chance of doing either).

[Uben]

12. Oh, I see.......

.....if you get more than half the pledged delegates, you win. I musta read the rules wrong. I thought it said you had to have 2025 delegates to win, and anything less triggered a brokered convention. Learn something new every day!

[Spider Jerusalem]

14. The nomination will likely be decided on the first ballot.

And the odds are that the superdelegates will vote to confirm the winner of the most pledged delegates through the nominating contest process as the nominee. Enough have already indicated that this is their intent to make it the most likely scenario. Which means that it's increasingly unlikely that Hillary is going to be nominated.

[SwampG8r]

26. menken quote

omg thats so cool can i use it?

[Khaotic]

5. 50% + 1

1,627 is fifty percent plus one of the 3,253 democratically selected delegates to the Democratic nominating convention.

Once a candidate has 1,627 of these "pledged" delegates, he or she will win the nomination -- unless the 796 superdelegates overturn the judgment of voters.

And that's not going to happen.

[papau]

8. LOL - so now he needs only 1627 elected delegates? - love the new rules

[PM7nj]

9. neither can get to 2025

Even if Hillary wins 100% of the remaining pledged delegates she will only be at 1840
Even if Obama wins 100% of the remaining pledged delegates he will only be at 1980

[papau]

16. true - very true

[UALRBSofL]

10. With Hillary winning the popular vote

The suderdelegates will have to endorse her. Popular vote counts for more then pledged delegates. Then again, if and when we have a revote florida will push the popular vote way ahead for Hillary over Obama. Those senior citizens will come out in mass for her.

[Selatius]

17. Howard Dean has been pretty stern with Florida here. He won't recognize a re-vote.

He puts the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Florida legislators who changed the law. I don't see his position changing anytime soon, but the future is hard to predict.

[dorktv]

20. Chairman Dean himself has stated that the credentials committee

can overrule him.

So it is perfectly plausible that they will be seated in part regardless of what happens with the supers.

[madfloridian]

22. He said that committee is not very likely to vote against party rules.

[dorktv]

25. Oh probably not but the outside chance is there.

[stahbrett]

18. No way will the superdelegates override the pledged delegates

Also, Obama, not Hillary, has the popular vote lead.

Giving the nomination to Hillary when Obama has the most pledged delegates would be suicide to the party - the outcry from such a travesty, especially by the most loyal Democratic voters (which are backing Obama overwhelmingly), would guarantee that (a) McCain wins, and (b) Hillary would be considered little better than Lieberman.

[Selatius]

23. It would cause the party to splinter along pro-Super Delegates and Anti-Super Delegates.

If that came to pass, whatever happens, the Super Delegate system would likely be removed in future reforms entirely to avoid this situation ever again.

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Another thing people fail to realize about the popular vote.

And why it won't be used:

Nevada, Maine, Washington and Iowa do not count -- that's a huge number of people right there. Plus, caucus votes do not automatically equal popular vote.

[PseudoIntellect]

21. Oh, so now pledged delegates don't matter.

Popular vote matters, because it favors Hillary, and PD's don't.

The fact is that if the caucus states Obama won were primaries, he'd have even MORE of a lead in the popular vote. Think about it...either the caucuses stay, and HRC gets an artificial lead when factoring in the two uncontested primaries, or the caucuses go, and BHO gets a larger lead in popular vote.

[SwampG8r]

28. obama quote

using this quote i have to wonder if you really are a hillary supporter
the truth of it is so obvious
reagan was an inspiring man and changed americas direction
you may not like the way he pointed it but point it he did
bill did not move america much did he ?
we spent too much time dealing with bills ME problems
anyway you may want to rethink that quote because it makes you think and i dont think your candidate can afford people thinking for themselves right now

[Spider Jerusalem]

3. Recommended.

And RCP has the delegate lead at 155; I think it's safe to say it's somewhere between 140 and 160, given the spread on the nubmers I've seen.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

6. maybe they watch to much Main Stream Media?

Especially the Clinton News Network, (CNN) or Timmeh on MSNBC.

[PM7nj]

7. If she wins 62% in every state left...

Check here... http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

If Hillary gets 62% in every state left (high unlikely) she will still be behind by one delegate.. 1605/1604.

[Quixote1818]

11. I agree but there is no changing their minds. They are in a cult like trance. nt

[UALRBSofL]

13. This really doesn't help your argument calling Hillary supporters a cult

and as such this type of post is not taken serious.

[Quixote1818]

15. Just giving them some of their own medicine. It was the Clinton campaign that

initiated the idea that all Obama supporters were in a cult. I guess they can dish it out but can't take it.

[Arkana]

19. 50+1% isn't enough.

That's Hillary's strategy.

[CyberPieHole]

24. Neither one can get to 2025...the magic number. "50%+1" is a number you pulled out of your...

Hat.:evilgrin:

Neither candidate has or will have the requisite 2025 delegates before the convention. Not Clinton. NOT Obama. Those are the facts. Super-delegates will be forced to decide this. I hope Hillary and Bill use everything in their power to make the numbers move her way.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

29. On what basis do you think Hillary can convince the SD's to vote in her favor?

Assuming Obama holds on to the pledged delegate and popular vote leads, which looks likely. I don't think anyone is disputing that the superdelegates will decide the nomination, I just don't think they can justify going for Hillary if she doesn't hold the lead in the primary vote.

[PseudoIntellect]

32. ...on the basis of wishful thinking contrary to superdelegate trends 80% in favor of BHO.

[Khaotic]

30. Nope, no bunny in the Hat trick here.

Just facts.

The Real Magic Number is 1,627

1,627 is fifty percent plus one of the 3,253 democratically selected delegates to the Democratic nominating convention.

Once a candidate has 1,627 of these "pledged" delegates, he or she will win the nomination -- unless the 796 superdelegates overturn the judgment of voters.

And that's not going to happen.

It's pretty simple.

Guess simple isn't simple in Hillary-land.

Using the Slate delegate resource, here's my predictions for the rest of the race.



Obama will get 50%+1 with the inclusion of North Carolina; if not he'll have it with Oregon. On May 20 she'll pick up a good chunk of delegates, but so will he.

It's about the net delegates at this point and she can't net enough to catch him. Even when she gets some net, he still makes gains toward the 50%+1 figure.

When it comes to gettin' nothin', but net ... Obama has been there far more times than Hillary.

It's a race, it's about the whole season, not just the home stretch. This is a lot more comparable to baseball than a NASCAR. Of course, Hillary and her supporters can continue to hope Obama hits the wall, but he won't.

Go Obama!!!

[proud2BlibKansan]

34. If you knew anything about elections,

you would know that "50%+1" is the magic number it takes to win any election. This is taught in Candidate 101. Anyone who has ever worked on a campaign or has run for office knows exactly what "50%+1" means.

Of course, keyboard commandos who blog and don't work on campaigns would most likely not know what "50%+1" means and they would be more likely of accusing someone of pulling it out of their . . .

[apocalypsehow]

31. Excellent OP. K & R.

:thumbsup:

[Satyagrahi]

33. "How can you win the nomination when the math looks so bleak for you?"

Q: How can you win the nomination when the math looks so bleak for you?

Hillary: It doesn't look bleak at all. I have a very close race with Senator Obama. There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we're going to follow the process.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/120062/output/print

Power trumps math in Hillary-land.

[GeorgeGist]

35. Your subliminal headline ...

might lead some to think that Hillary is closer to the nomination (-142) than Obama (-252).

[Yossariant]

36. When will Obama's supporters ever understand the RULES?

The RULES require 2025 delegates.

Is Obama asking the DNC to change the RULES? :evilgrin:

[Khaotic]

37. No

But when will Hillary supporters realize that the Supers will support whoever gets to 50%+1 first?

50%+1 + Supers = Nomination.

The candidate who gets to 50%+1 WILL be our nominee ... period. Mark my words, that is the way it will go down.

Any other way involves spilting up the party.

[dorktv]

38. That is saying a lot about the Supers.

Never know how they will vote.

Either way they are going to catch hell.

And stop with the "split the party" nonsense. The party is in fine shape.

[Johnny__Motown]

39. THE PARTY IS IN FINE SHAPE??? OMG WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZsYWiywdCA&feature=related


Hillary is destroying it

[dorktv]

41. I was just at a YDA meeting and there were no fist fights, in fact

it was the most well attended in the few I have had a chance to go to.

And the last time I was at a state party function, it was also well attended. The primary vote numbers are up from 2004.

So exactly where is the party being destroyed? The fact that people in states that have never had much campaigning get to have a chance to vote in a Presidential campaign? Oh no! The horror!

[joeprogressive]

40. Great analysis and way too logical for HRC supporters n/t