Yes, Mr. Bush, there is indeed a well documented "misery index."

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0412.html



Change in the
Middle-class
Misery Index

Carter  6
Reagan -5
Bush I -12
Clinton 23
Bush II -13

Record Deterioration in the Middle-Class Misery Index
Among the Largest Increases in Health, Tuition, and Gasoline Prices in Decades

April  12,  2004

For Immediate Release


The loss of 2.6 million private-sector jobs under President Bush is a serious challenge for the American economy.  Less noted but perhaps even more important is the fact that middle-class families are increasingly being squeezed by the rising cost of health care, college tuition and gasoline – at the same time that wages and incomes are stagnating and personal bankruptcies are at record levels.  This report describes and analyzes a new measure of the pressures faced by American families – the Middle-class Misery Index.  The Middle-class Misery Index combines seven different indicators:  median family income, college tuition, health costs, gasoline cost, bankruptcies, the homeownership rate, and private-sector job growth.  The data used to compute the Middle-class Misery Index are available from 1976 through 2003.

KEY FINDINGS

1. The Middle-class Misery Index Worsened 13 Points In the Last Three Years – the Largest Three-year Fall on Record and the Worst Record of Any President Ever.  Six of the seven indicators included in the Middle-class Misery Index deteriorated between 2000 and 2003 – resulting in a 13 point deterioration in the Middle-class Misery Index.  The four largest contributors to the declines in the Middle-class Misery Index from 2000 to 2003 – in order – were rising college tuition, falling private-sector jobs, rising health premiums, and declining family incomes.

2. Incomes Have Declined $1,462 Under President Bush.  Under President Bush the typical family has seen its income decline by $1,462 based on the most recent data showing the change from 2000 to 2002.

3. 2003 Witnessed Record or Near-record Jumps in the Cost of Healthcare, College Tuition and Gasoline.  The following are the inflation-adjusted increases for some of the major components of the Middle-class Misery Index from 2002 to 2003:

• Wages down 0.2 percent
• College tuition up 13 percent – the largest increase on record
• Health premiums up 11 percent – the largest increase since 1977
• Gasoline up 15 percent – the second largest increase since 1980

4. George Bush’s policies have contributed to the middle-class squeeze; John Kerry’s proposals—including $225 billion of middle class tax cuts for health and education-- address all aspects of the middle-class squeeze.  John Kerry has policies that address declining incomes and the rising costs of healthcare, higher education, and gasoline.

Historical Changes in the Middle-class Misery Index

The Middle-class Misery Index is based on median family income, college tuition, health costs, gasoline cost, bankruptcies, the homeownership rate, and private-sector job growth.  All seven of these series enter the index with equal weights.  (Note, unlike the original Misery Index, a higher index indicates that people are better off.)

GEORGE BUSH’S ROLE IN THE RISE OF THE MIDDLE-CLASS MISERY INDEX

George Bush does not seem to even understand the middle-class squeeze let alone have a strategy to deal with it.  Here’s the role he has played in exacerbating the middle-class squeeze and worsening the Middle-class Misery Index:

• Job-killing and job-neglecting policies have hurt jobs and incomes.  George Bush has presided over the worst job loss of any President since Herbert Hoover.  Under his presidency America has lost 2.6 million private sector jobs.  In February 2002 – after 9/11 and the recession – his Council of Economic Advisers predicted that we would create millions of new jobs.  Today we are 7 million jobs short.  George Bush has created record deficits without the stimulus needed to restart job growth and an exploding long-term deficit that undermines confidence today.

• State deficits have led to record tuition increases – and George Bush has opposed fiscal relief or additional education support.  George Bush’s reckless fiscal policies have led to the largest state fiscal crisis in fifty years.  In an effort to balance their budgets states have been forced to shift the burden onto higher tuition for American families.  Last year public universities increased tuition by 13 percent adjusted for inflation – more than twice the 5 percent rate of increase at private universities and clear evidence that a major part of the problem is the state fiscal crisis.  At the same time that tuition has been rising at record rates, George Bush has opposed state fiscal relief and refused to propose increases in the maximum Pell Grant.

• George Bush has passed tax cuts to help the wealthy pay their health costs while neglecting everyone else.  George Bush’s has no solution to the rising cost of health premiums and instead has pushed for medical savings accounts that would only help the wealthiest Americans while undermining the employer-based insurance system, potentially reducing coverage and increasing costs for older and sicker workers.

• Under George Bush the gas tax has gone up by $24 billion.  Americans are paying $24 billion more for gasoline just this year alone.  The average family is spending $300 more for gas than they would have if the price stayed at the level when Bush first took office.  George Bush has failed to fulfill his promise to jawbone OPEC into increasing production while fighting for oil company profits and against conservation.

JOHN KERRY’S POLICIES AND THE MIDDLE-CLASS MISERY INDEX

John Kerry’s entire agenda is directed at addressing the middle-class squeeze – including restarting job growth, pushing for more than $225 billion in middle-class tax cuts, and a series of policies aimed at reducing health care premiums, helping families pay for college, and reducing gas prices.

• John Kerry’s jobs and income agenda.  John Kerry has a comprehensive agenda to restart job growth including ending the tax benefits for companies that move jobs overseas and providing tax credits for companies that create jobs in America; reducing the long-run deficit to increase confidence and job hiring; and investments in the industries of the future.  More and better jobs mean rising incomes – and a falling Middle-class Misery Index.

• John Kerry’s agenda to promote universal access to college—including $50 billion of tax cuts for college.  John Kerry has proposed a $25 billion State Tax Relief and Education Fund that would reduce the pressure on states to balance their budgets by raising tuition for working families.  John Kerry is also pushing for a College Opportunity Tax Cut – substantial tax relief to help families pay for college.

• John Kerry’s agenda to promote more affordable health insurance for all Americans—including $177 billion in tax credits for health insurance.  John Kerry has proposed a series of tax credits and other measures to ensure that healthcare is more affordable for American families.  Kerry’s policies would reduce health insurance premiums by up to $1,000 and improve health outcomes.

• John Kerry’s agenda to promote energy independence.  John Kerry supports a comprehensive agenda to advance the use of renewable fuels, including hydrogen, and promote more fuel efficient cars and houses – reducing the pressure over the long run.  To immediately relieve the pressure on gas prices he would temporarily suspend filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, would work more effectively to ensure that OPEC increases production, and would enact a simpler and cleaner national fuels strategy.

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

The Middle-class Misery Index is based on median family income, college tuition, health costs, gasoline cost, bankruptcies, the homeownership rate, and private-sector job growth.  The growth rate of the index is formed by adding up the growth rates of these seven series – weighting them by the inverse of their standard deviation to ensure that each series contributes equally to the overall index.  The index is set at 100 in 1976.

Median family income.  Median family income is from the Bureau of Census’ Income in the United States report.  It is adjusted for inflation.  Census has not released the 2003 income data yet; this study constructs the 2003 number by assuming that income grows from 2002 to 2003 at the same rate as Usual Weekly Earnings reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

College tuition.  College tuition is the average tuition and fees for public four-year universities adjusted for inflation from the College Board’s Trends in College Pricing 2003..

Health premiums.  Health premiums are for private health insurance available from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.  CMS has not release the 2003 data yet; this study constructs the 2003 number using the Kaiser Family Foundation’s estimate of 2003 health premium growth.  All data is adjusted for inflation.

Gasoline prices.  Gasoline prices are the average national price for unleaded regular gasoline from the Energy Information Agency, adjusted for inflation.

Homeownership.  The homeownership rate is available from the Bureau of the Census.

Private-sector job growth.  Available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Personal bankruptcies.  This is non-business bankruptcies and it is available from the American Bankruptcy Institute.

[swinney]

1. something amiss??Misery Index--Low is good High is bad.

Someone explain.

[rinsd]

2. Low was good, high was bad....

but now high is good and low is bad.

BTW, whose on first?

[rinsd]

3. Gas tax?

Is that referring to the rise in gas prices or revenues from some tax? It seems to be the former.

[notbush]

4. OK I'll bite

This isn't the same misery index that's been used since the 70's....right?