My predictions for the rest of the primary season.

[Drunken Irishman]

Wyoming: Obama 7, Clinton 5
Mississippi: Obama 22, Clinton 11
Pennsylvania: Clinton 81, Obama 77
Guam: Obama 2, Clinton 2
Indiana: Clinton 39, Obama 33
North Carolina: Obama 63, Clinton 52
West Virginia: Obama 15, Clinton 13
Kentucky: Clinton 28, Obama 23
Oregon: Obama 31, Clinton 21
Montana: Obama 10, Clinton 6
South Dakota: Obama 10, Clinton 5
Puerto Rico: Obama 31, Clinton 24

This would mean, out of all the contests, Obama nets + 37 delegates over Clinton.

Obama's total, not factoring in superdelegates who have not committed, would be 1,851 to Clinton's 1,715 or a lead of 136. That would put Obama within 173 delegates of the magical number and Clinton at about 309 of the magical number.

Now this does not factor in superdelegates that could come on board in the future. However, for Clinton to win the nomination through superdelegates, she would need to net 136 more than Obama (and, of course, 309 total). There are an estimated 357 superdelegates who have not endorsed, so that means -- if neither Clinton or Obama superdelegates flip -- Clinton would need to win 87% of the uncommitted superdelegates to win the nomination. On the flip side, Obama would only need to win about 48% of those superdelegates who remain uncommitted.

Basically, if Clinton is going to win this, she will need to start cleaning Obama's clock, but if she keeps trading victories (in fact, she may only win 3 of the 12 states post-Texas/Ohio/Rhode Island/Vermont), it will be very difficult for her to make the case she deserves the nomination, especially when she's down over 300 delegates when it comes to reaching the number needed.

[DeadManInc]

1. I say no way he wins West Virginia.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Then flip the results, it doesn't change anything.

Clinton will still be almost 150 delegates behind Obama and over 300 delegates short of the needed count to reach the nomination.

Which means Clinton would still need to win over 80% of the remaining superdelegates.

[pkz]

11. you just may be wrong there

Obama has been endorsed by Rockefeller, Rahall and the Governor is not able to comment at this time, he is a super, and holding to his vest for now....but I do know which way some of his family is leaning ;)

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. on a completely unrelated note

have the DU clocks been set forward? I should be able to start a thread, but it says I'm not able to, even though it's past the 24 hour mark for my last post.

sorry for interrupting.
:)

[loveangelc]

4. why would he win pr?

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I think having the support of the governor there will be huge.

[Zachstar]

6. Great topic!!

Thank you..

[XemaSab]

7. My predictions:

Mississippi 55% Obama
Pennsylvania 55% Hillary
Guam 70% Obama
North Carolina 55% Obama
Indiana 50% tie
West Virginia 55% Hillary
Oregon 60% Obama
Kentucky 55% Hillary
Montana 65% Obama
South Dakota 60% Obama
Puerto Rico 55% Hillary

This plus half the SD's would take Obama to 2,053 and the nomination. :)

Hillary would have to get this plus 75% of the superdelegates to win it.

[stop the bleeding]

8. HRC predictions for the rest of primary season.

Only certain states matter. End of discussion.

[Scurrilous]

9. Good job!

K & R :thumbsup:

[TheDoorbellRang]

10. Did you base your results on polls?

If so, where'd you find 'em?

I'm in the process of doing some number crunching with remaining races.
Right now, if we don't factor in the uncommitted 34 from previous contests, the 26 pledged to Edwards, and keep MI and FL out of the mix, Obama needs 229 of the remaining 599 PD's, or 38%; Clinton needs 371 of 599, or 62%.

Your guesstimates above (excluding the WY #'s that I already have included in my number crunching), show Obama gaining 317 and Clinton gaining 282. She would need 89 PD's (371-282=89) above and beyond what you've given her to beat Obama in PD's.

GObama!

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Some on polls, some guessing.

Obama should win Mississippi by 15+, North Carolina by 10+. Those are the only two I used polls for, however. The rest were just speculation based on how he did in neighborhood states (for Montana, South Carolina and Oregon) and Clinton strongholds (Indiana, I guess and Kentucky -- though Kentucky does have a pretty good black population).