Breaking: New ARG poll out of PA-52-41 Clinton

[Tropics_Dude83]

This is good news, especially if you look at the breakdown of the demographics for Obama. Sure, Obama starts 11 points down in PA, but if he runs a good campaign in PA, he can win. I'm telling you. If Obama can put Clinton on the defensive, win the news cycles going into PA, and adjust his campaign stump speech to address the voters of PA, he can win and knock the senator from New York out of her misery.

Here is the poll:

March 9, 2008 - Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Preference

Pennsylvania
Democrats Mar 7-8

Clinton 52%
Obama 41%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 6%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 59% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 63% to 27%.

Clinton leads 63% to 29% among white voters (78% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 7% among African American voters (18% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 47% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (55% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 58% to 37% among voters age 50 and older.

16% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 28% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

Add the undecideds and already Obama has 47% in the pool that could back him. If he swings younger voters his way by 10-15 points, he can win the state.

Remember he was down by 9 in Wisconsin just 2 weeks out.

Obama CAN win PA!!! If the media doesn't shill for it's darling, Hillary Clinton.

[pbca]

1. That's an improvement

of +4 for Obama and -11 for Hillary over the last poll I looked at.

[maddiejoan]

2. Cos ARG has been sooooo accurate

:shrug:

[MadBadger]

3. Actually, recently they have.

[tandem5]

4. hillary clinton - media darling. hmmmmm

[Cali_Democrat]

5. Doesn't Clinton need 65% or more in this state

The majority of the states remaining are not favorable to her. She needs a PA blowout.

[NJSecularist]

6. It is a very winnable state for Obama

However, he needs to cut down the rallies and start doing more town halls. He has 6 weeks to meet each and every person in the state. Rallies will not work in PA.

[OzarkDem]

9. Then why isn't he winning?

Please. I'm beginning to realize how ignorant Obama supporters actually are of GE presidential politics.

[NJSecularist]

20. I am certainly not ignorant of GE presidential politics

I have acknowledged over and over again how Ohio and Florida are very important for us in the general election and HRC gives us the best chance to win those states.

But what are you inferring? That Obama will lose PA in the general election?

[MadBadger]

25. Dont feed the animal, Ozark is having a moment.

[OzarkDem]

30. Sorry to disrupt your fantasy

but you're going to have to explain how Obama can win PA in the GE if Clinton beats him there in the primary.

[MadBadger]

34. Go look at SurveyUSA's current polls for NV, OH, NM, CA, NY, MA, RI, NH,

Just because you win it in the primary doesnt mean your opponent cant win it in the GE. Not to mention, just because Obama lost in the primary in lets say Nevada, doesnt mean Obama isnt favored to win there while Hillary is favored to lose.

[OzarkDem]

37. Already did and debunked the Ohio one

it was taken BEFORE the primary and even then he was even with Clinton. Show me a poll taken AFTER the primary that shows Obama with a higher chance than Clinton of winning Ohio.

Leave nothing to chance, why gamble on an inferior candidate just because he's a man?

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OzarkDem]

44. Sorry you lost the argument

[apocalypsehow]

47. That's rich. And false. Typical of the bilge I see spewed on a regular basis.

n/t.

[apocalypsehow]

45. True story.

:thumbsup:

[MadBadger]

46. If I had a thread I'd highlight just how idiotic this person is.

[Gore1FL]

53. Juts a couple of notes...

1> Since it your assertion, the burden of proof is on you to show a more recent poll that changes the outome in a way that supports your statement.

2> The Survey USA study shows 3/6 -- That was Thursday--two days later.

[Hepburn]

41. ....

<snicker> :dunce:

[OzarkDem]

28. Yes, Obama will lose PA

The polls seem to indicate that is likely.

They also seem to indicate that Clinton has a better chance of winning PA in the GE than Obama.

Evidence based politics.

[MadBadger]

31. It's Seven weeks away. That is an eternity in politics

[JoFerret]

59. True

.

[OzarkDem]

62. You guys said that about Ohio, too

Didn't happen.

As info, many of the women who worked on Hillary's Ohio campaign are organizing to work in PA.

[MadBadger]

63. We did? Prove it

Two weeks is a lot different than seven weeks.

[NJSecularist]

You would need evidence that Hillary won PA

And you don't have any evidence of the sort. Because the reality is that the Pennsylvania primary hasn't happened yet, and won't take place for another 7 weeks.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[ExtraGriz]

58. obama has no chance in Penn.

its very similar to ohio x2.....clinton will maintain her lead there and obama may close it by a point or two, or 3, but thats prob it.

[Gore1FL]

38. How so?

I keep seeing arguments that loses in primaries and caucuses equated to losses in the GE. That would seem to express ignorance of the GE process.

[Tropics_Dude83]

12. Great minds think alike:)

It's funny. I was just thinking that earlier today:) He needs to use his IA strategy for PA, lots of town halls, diner-type moments, etc.

[SoFlaJet]

7. If all the polls were right from the beginning

The Monster would already be the nominee-she ain't

[Hepburn]

36. LOL....

...you noticed! :hi:

She is losing...but in Hillaryworld, the monster is the winner and it is tres kewl that she is offering Obama the VP spot!

Hillaryworld....a place where reality stops at the door! :dunce:

[MadBadger]

8. Huge Gender and Racial Divide

[Inuca]

11. Yes :-( n/t

[OzarkDem]

13. Like everywhere else in the US

as I said before, Dem men are trying to shove a less qualified, less electable candidate who is less likely to win the GE down our collective throats just because they're too sexist to vote for the best candidate - a woman.

[MadBadger]

18. No, not like everywhere else in the US. Jesus Fucking Christ.

Sorry to offend Christians, but Ozark is quite annoying

[NJSecularist]

24. You have to wonder if some of these people actually believe what they are saying...

Yeah, Obama is winning the delegate count because men hate women. :eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[MH1]

21. So, the only people supporting Obama are men?

Now that is a sexist comment. :eyes:

[rodeodance]

29. yes, they are

[apocalypsehow]

43. And you have proof of this allegation, right? I'll wait right here while you post a link.

n/t.

[Hepburn]

48. Ummmmmmmmmmm

.....NO!!

The HILLBOTS, be they male or female, are trying to shove the DINO, Repubbie lite monster down our collective throats be we male or female.

Hillary is NOT my idea of any ideal I would wish to have as a female role model.

BTW: Obama has a better chance of winning the GE. With the monster? Learn to say, "President McCain."

[BumRushDaShow]

10. The potential outcome is

for this state to be like a Missouri if the eastern part of the state turns out like it did to give Kerry the whole state in the 2004 GE.

[OzarkDem]

14. Clinton leads among younger voters

She leads among women voters and she leads among all Dem voters.

Why are so many people pushing Obama again?

[Kittycat]

19. THat's nothing new this far out. You know that's the one demographic

You're most terrified of, because she can't retain control of it for certain.

[MH1]

26. U Penn Democrats just endorsed Obama.

I was at an event for a local candidate and there was a Penn Dems guy there who gave us the news.

Gobama!

[Kittycat]

27. And once the Frats & Sororities From Neighboring colleges get in on the mix

She's sunk. Gotta love those college social networks. If theirs anything they're good for - this is one of them.

[MadBadger]

32. Dont worry, Ozark is being intellectually dishonest

She leads 47-45 among voters aged 18-49. Young voters are considered either 18-29, or 18-35. We dont know those numbers, but Obama is more than likely ahead there.

[Kittycat]

56. Yeah - I know. But it's still fun playing with him. It's why I only have him on partial ignore now

[MadBadger]

22. What do you consider younger voters? Anybody under 50? Because I consider them 18-29.

[Kittycat]

15. This is great news for Obama.

Check out that 18-49 range. That's going to flip and flip hard for Obama. We need to work on women and white voters, and there's what? A month to do it?

Fantastic!!!

[AntiFascist]

16. Very cool...he needs to make more uplifting speeches, they never hurt n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. The Creeping Terror!

[Tropics_Dude83]

23. Actually 7 weeks to PA

April 22nd.

It's an eternity. And guess what the week of April 15-22 will be dominated by?

HRC has promised to release her tax returns on April 15. Suspect there are a few bombshells in there.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

33. 2007 or 2006 or 2005....

Expect a cherry pick.

[MH1]

35. Do you really think she'll release her tax returns on April 15?

Why that date anyway?

The Clintons have shown they are experts at moving the goalposts. They must feel they can hold any damage (from pushing the date out) at bay for a week (from the 15 to the 22nd) in this case.

[Tropics_Dude83]

39. Make the discussion about why they didn't release......

If she doesn't make the disclosure on 4/15 as promised, then make that THE issue for 7 days. Let her tax returns be to her PA primary what NAFTA was to Obama's OH primary.

Also, sadly, I think Obama needs to debate her in PA to have a good chance of winning. He needs to introduce himself to the voters.

[OzarkDem]

42. Why do Obama supporters expect Dems to gamble

on a candidate who has lesser odds than Clinton of winning the key electoral states in the GE, just because he's a man?

Think about it. You're asking Dems to support a candidate who has lower odds than Clinton of winning largekey, must win states for the GE. Why are you taking those risks? Is it only because you can't bring yourself to vote for the better candidate because she's a woman?

That's the reason, face it. Don't expect Clinton supporters to subscribe to the same failed logic in support of Obama.

[Barack_America]

51. You are completely detached from reality.

Obama is winning the "key" swing states by a larger margin than Hillary in recent head-to-head polls.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_presidential_race_state_by_state_snapshot

But I'm sure that you have a pre-packaged answer about why these polls don't "count".

[Hepburn]

52. The gamble is Hillary....

and if she is as hated by the Pubbies as she is hated by the Dems.

[Vinca]

54. Can you honestly not vote Democratic in November and allow

4 more years of George Bush? Because that's what you'll be getting. I despise Hillary. I really do. But I'll pull the damn lever for her to try to prevent one more Iraqi kid from getting its leg blown off.

[Hardrada]

49. Polls are meaningless at this point.

[MadBadger]

50. They are important in that they let us see where the race is currently

[XemaSab]

55. Hillary would have to take Pennsylvania 85-15 to close the gap

Obama could get 45% in every state and still pull this thing out.

[SKKY]

64. And pull it out comfortably...

[XemaSab]

57. If they split both Pennsylvania and all the SD's 50-50

She would have to get 71% in every single remaining election from here in out to get to 2,025.

If she got a little over 61% in every remaining election, plus 61% of the superdelegates, she would barely make 2,025.

[bluestateguy]

60. Too many polls is a serious problem in this nation

It is as serious as the war in Iraq or the economy. We desperately need legislation to rein in these out of control pollsters that are doing tremendous damage to this nation.

[David__77]

61. Obama needs some female surrogates to work PA for him.

This is important.