+155, +120, +592K, +298K

[scheming daemons]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Those numbers are Obama's leads in:

A) Pledged Delegates.... the +155 is one better than he was BEFORE March 4th.

B) Total Delegates.... Hillary's +35 lead among Superdelegates is the smallest it has ever been. She was +90 before February 5th, and +45 before March 4th.

C) Obama's lead in the popular vote, not counting Florida.

D) Obama's lead in the popular, vote, counting Florida.


There is no way that Michigan can be counted in C or D.... Obama followed the rules and wasn't on the ballot. Hillary cheated and was.

This is not the USSR, so soviet-style politburo elections don't count. Sorry.

[Johnny__Motown]

1. Nice numbers, but there are reports that Obama has another 50 SD lined up and ready to announce

[lapfog_1]

6. Don't be looking for the fifty SDs till after PA now

Sad to say, but Hillary's "win" in Texas put that on hold, IMHO.

I wish they had the guts to just do it anyway and end this thing, but they are afraid of Camp Hillary. Just like the Dem leadership in Congress is afraid of the minority repukes. No spine.

They all know the math, they know that Hillary can make up the deficits... but they can't do the deed right this moment because Hillary make the "comeback" (which wasn't really a comeback, but the MSM told us it was, and so it shall be).

If Obama wins the next few like Wyoming and makes PA close, then they might finally be persuaded to put a foot on her neck and slay the beast.

The bar has always been much higher for Obama than any other candidate in the race. If the situation was reversed right now, Obama would be under SOOO much pressure to get out.

[Zhade]

17. "they know that Hillary can make up the deficits" - I assume you mean CAN'T.

Just didn't want any Clintbots to get their impossible hopes up (she's done, guys, move on).

[Window]

33. LOL!

[scheming daemons]

7. He already trickled out 8 or so after Tuesday... he's not going to bring them out all at once...

A) slow burn over the next several weeks.... He wants this to build to a crescendo leading into PA. 1 or 2 a day until then.

B) This allows each of the SDs to get their OWN time in the spotlight. If 50 come out at once, they are all anonymous... but if they come out one at a time, they each get to dominate the local news cycle for a day where they are running for office.


a 50-delegate "bomb"... while a big headline grabber for a couple of days... will be VERY OLD news by the time PA comes around.

But if he picks up a SD a day for each of the next 40+ days leading up to PA... THAT will be death by a thousand cuts for Hillary.

[loveangelc]

15. obama's camp said that rumor was untrue. I think they did have them but tx and oh froze them.

[scheming daemons]

18. Didn't freeze the 8-10 that trickled out last week after Tuesday....

....watch after Obama's big win in MS on Tuesday too..... this will give some more of them cover.

[Kittycat]

2. Get out of here with those facts. That's reality talk.

[ORDem]

16. Yeah, and "reality" is sexist (to HRC supporters) n/t

:kick:

[David Dunham]

3. FL and MI are going to revote one way or another. That's a fact.

[wileedog]

4. Which will change these numbers minimally

That's a fact.

[scheming daemons]

5. Fine! That will give Obama a bigger lead in popular vote....

...since

A) Hillary won't beat him 50-33 this time (not with Edwards out) in Florida

B) Hillary won't beat him 55-0 in Michigan.


If both states have a revote, it makes Obama's popular vote lead (the one that includes Florida right now) *BIGGER*....since he will undoubtedly lose Florida by a LOT less than he did during the faux primary.

[lapfog_1]

8. Who, exactly, is going to pay for it?

And who wants it? Hillary doesn't want it, she wants the previous slate of delegates seated. Obama doesn't really want it, he wants the rules to be followed (don't seat them). The DNC doesn't want it anymore, and can't pay for it anyway (total cost is like $35M, the DNC has about $3.5M on hand). The Florida repukes don't care, they just want to see mischief in the Democratic party... in fact, they would love nothing more than to dangle a re-vote only to snatch it away and further alienate Florida dems from the democratic party and the nominee, Obama.

So, who wants it... really wants it?

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[lapfog_1]

20. She wants the whine to be loud enough that the spineless Dems,

fearing to alienate the party faithful in FL and MI, go ahead and seat the delegates already selected in the unsanctioned primaries. Michigan will be tough because even the most partisan HillShill (except for few here), sees the inequity of seating delegates for Hillary but 0 for Obama because his name wasn't on the ballot (as per the agreement between the candidates). Anyway, the question is, will the spineless Dems roll over once again to Bush/Rove tactics? The good news... this isn't Pelosi or Reid, this is Howard Dean, the bad news, the top three people already selected to the credentials committee are all Clinton supporters.

Credentials Committee
Elected to chair the Credentials Committee are Alexis Herman, James Roosevelt, Jr. and Eliseo Roques-Arroyo. Alexis Herman served as U.S. Secretary of Labor from 1997 to 2001. She served as DNC Chief of Staff for Chairman Ron Brown and later was named CEO of the 1992 Democratic National Convention. Since 2005, she has served as a Co-Chair of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee and also served as a Co-Chair of the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling. James Roosevelt, Jr. is President and CEO of Tufts Health Plan, a Massachusetts based Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) and was formerly Associate Commissioner for Retirement Policy of the Social Security Administration in the Clinton Administration. He is the chief legal counsel for the Massachusetts Democratic Party and Co-Chair of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee. Eliseo Roques-Arroyo, a native of Puerto Rico, served as Executive Assistant to Commonwealth of Puerto Rico Senate Minority Leader Miguel Hernandez-Agosto and to Puerto Rico Delegate to Congress Antonio J. Colorado. He is a former Executive Director of the Democratic Party of Puerto Rico and presently a member of the DNC.

http://www.demconvention.com/dnc-elects-standing-committee-leadership-for-2008-democratic-national-convention-2/

[SoCalDem]

23. They should be asked to recuse themselves since they have a big ole conflict of interest

[lapfog_1]

27. Well, since almost everyone there will be either an Obama

or Hillary supporter or Super Delegate for one or the other, everyone that has a position of authority will have a conflict of interest.

Personally, I think Howard Dean himself should step in and run all meetings of the credentials committee, and I believe that he, as party chairperson, can do it.

[SoCalDem]

29. That's why this whole super-delegate thing is a baaaad idea, getting worse by the minute

All it does is to guarantee that 50% of the party will be pissed off..

I hope they rethink this whole thing... and maybe make the state vote split 2/3 1/3 instead of the 60/40

[lapfog_1]

32. Super Delegates are a bad idea.

Too much "party boss" elite nonsense. Not for the party of the people.

They should have kept the total number of Supers to under a hundred at least. That way, they only matter on effective "ties" as a tie breaker. In fact, the rules should state the the nominee MUST win by a vote of X+50 to X-50 or more from the pledged delegates only... otherwise it would be determined by a simple majority of SUPER DUPER delegates and the SuperDupers only.

But, well, I'm sure that has flaws too. No system is perfect.

[Zhade]

21. "So, who wants it... really wants it?" - Clinton supporters who can't face that she LOST.

Which, by the way, is AWESOME.

[lapfog_1]

25. Why would they want a re-vote?

Obama currently has 0 as in zip, nada, nothing from Michigan... and Hillary has a much bigger delegate count from Florida now than she would from a re-vote. Hillary wants the unsanctioned delegates seated, as is. That, plus a lot of arm twisting, cajoling, possible bribery and blackmail of both pledged and Super delegates is her only hope of getting 2208 needed for nomination. Hillary has already rejected the idea of a caucus re-vote in both states. I don't think she wants a do over primary either.

I think the whole thing is dead in the water... and now the fight is about seating the unsanctioned delegates.

[nsd]

9. Also, the popular vote figures don't include NV, IA, ME, WA.

Those are caucus states that haven't released popular vote totals yet. Clinton won Nevada but only narrowly; Obama won big in the other three states. One estimate (link) suggests that, if counted, these states might add another 100K to Obama's total.

[krkaufman]

13. Isn't that interesting. I've been pondering that myself ...

... that Obama maintains a popular vote lead even though he's won so many more caucus states -- which have a much lower turnout than the primary states. So if he's winning in the popular vote, given these conditions, he's *seriously* kicking her butt.

Using the popular vote for judging anything would seem illogical given the differing weight between caucus and primary states, but should be moot if Obama ends in the popular vote lead, as well.

[ORDem]

19. Popular vote is a red herring put out by the Clintons. Pledged delegates are what

count and represent the popular vote fairly. Caucuses don't have the same turnout as "regular" primaries. If caucus results were weighted proportionally Obama's popular vote lead would be even larger, but, again, that's what the pledged delegates mean.

:kick:

[nsd]

31. That's really a good point.

But I worry that the MSM will be duped by the Clinton spin on this. Whenever I've seen the total vote numbers flashed onscreen on MSNBC or CNN, they never qualify them by mentioning the caucus vs. primary issue.

[loveangelc]

24. Do they ever release those figures?

[nsd]

28. No, I don't think they do. /nt

[krkaufman]

11. I could almost guarantee that someone will argue on MI

... saying that Obama wasn't required to remove his name, and so it's his tough luck if he made a bad decision.

[loveangelc]

12. Hillary lost 10 superdelegates since march 4th??????

[scheming daemons]

14. According to RCP she did.....

....

[ORDem]

22. Yep. 6 or 8 were picked up for Obama in CA after certification, she

lost the delegate count in TX, and Obama picked up +2 in WY over HRC. I think in fact that his lead may have increased by more than 10. And of course his SD count keeps rising while Hillary's keeps shrinking. This thing was over after WI, it's just that Hillary wants to keep beating her dead horse of a campaign. Winning PA is not going to make any difference, unless she wins it 80/20, maybe. Like that's gonna happen!

:kick:

[AJH032]

26. "Hillary cheated"?

Oh please, leaving her name on the ballot is NOT cheating. Ridiculous.

[scheming daemons]

36. Counting those votes as part of her popular vote IS cheating..

...

[jgraz]

30. +1

Obama's lead in locked-up presidential nominations.

[jackson_dem]

34. 592k. Let's see what happens in PA. He may lose 250-350k there alone...

[scheming daemons]

35. You don't understand PA if you think that....

I've lived in PA for 41 years. Hillary may win this state, but it will be something like 52-47 if she does.


You'll see....