As I have said many times before, it is my opinion Hillary Clinton will take this to the convention.
Let's take a look at the remaining contests:
Tuesday, March 11 (Mississippi - 40 delegates)
Advantage ObamaTuesday, April 22 (Pennsylvania - 188 delegates)
Advantage ClintonSaturday, May 3 (Guam - 3 delegates)
Advantage ClintonTuesday, May 6 (Indiana - 84 delegates, North Carolina - 134 delegates)
Advantage ObamaTuesday, May 13 (West Virginia - 39 delegates)
TossupTuesday, May 20 (Kentucky - 60 delegates, Oregon - 65 delegates)
TieSunday, June 1 (Puerto Rico - 63 delegates)
TossupTuesday, June 3 (Montana - 24 delegates, South Dakota - 23 delegates)
TossupClinton is not going to get any net gain in pledged delegates. All Obama has to do is keep it close in Pennsylvania and win big in states like Mississippi and North Carolina and he'll likely come out gaining pledged delegates over Clinton from the remaining primaries.
So why is Hillary Clinton still in the race? Why is she still running when it's not mathematically possible to win the number of pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination? Well, that's not how she's planning to win. She is
counting on superdelegates and siphoning off Obama's
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/hillary_pledged_delegates_can.php">pledged delegates to win the nomination at the convention.
It is actually possible, though unlikely, for Hillary to win this way. However, there are several things we can do in the meantime:
#1)
Stop pressuring Hillary to suspend her campaign. This is not going to happen and actually she is the type that thrives on "fighting" and these appeals for her to concede only cause her to become more entrenched and determined NOT to quit. Think about the upside of the long primary season (I know it is hard to do): the lack of a firm target for the low-on-$$$$ RNC to attack, the shortened amount of time the republicans will have to smear whoever the nominee is, the forced implementation of the 50-state strategy (energizing Democrats in places like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Montana, South Dakota, and the commonwealth of Puerto Rico).
#2)
Contact any undecided superdelegates in your state. Demconwatch provides a great list of who has endorsed a candidate and
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegates-who-havent-endorsed.html">who has yet to endorse a candidate. Write to these individuals and politely explain why they should support Sen. Obama. Email is great, but a personal snail mail letter is even better.
#3)
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/dt2std?source=mainnav">DONATE!!!!!#4)
Remember that the http://www.denverconvention2008.com/">Democratic National Convention will take place August 25-28, 2008. Check your work schedule because you
http://www.travelocity.com">might need to make some
http://www.expedia.com">travel arrangements.
#5)
Send the campaign your http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/contact2">thoughts and ideas.These are only a few suggestions. Even with do-overs in Florida and Michigan, we'll still be left where we are today, in my opinion, with Obama leading in pledged delegates, but unable to amass the total needed to put secure the nomination before the convention. Let's also keep the focus on where it belongs: bringing in new participants to the political process, returning to Constitutional government, and changing the way we do business in Washington.
The Obama campaign has been one of the people, by the people, and for the people. This isn't a one-man show. Let's show our support in the best, most constructive way possible.