If Obama has a strong showing in Pennsylvania, any chance this madness will end?

[RiverStone]

Even with the delegate math decisively in Obama's favor, Hillary is saying she intends to go all the way. Most of us assume that means she will take it to a floor fight at the convention if it comes to that. Obama won by 23% in Wyoming over the weekend, and we anticipate a good showing in Mississippi tomorrow. Nevertheless, Hillary has her sites set on a big Pennsylvania win to justify staying in the race.

Recent polls have put Obama 6-7 points down in PA (but gaining). If he wins in PA, even by a small margin, I would think that would make a compelling case for Hillary to drop out. I know, many already see it as compelling; but I'm looking at it from the eyes of an Obama supporter. Hillary's campaign still see's her being able to convince to Super Delegates that she is more winnable in the GE than Obama. Of course, Obama has won double the amount of states already.

However --- if she loses in PA on 4/22 --- that should end it!

Do you agree?

[Zynx]

1. If he gets over 47%, I'd say that should be it.

Currently, the most recent polls I have seen have him 11-15 points down.

[RiverStone]

7. He was behind by 7 points in PA here:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08058/860754-100.stm

[Zynx]

8. I'm going off the most recent polls that I saw on RCP.

[vi5]

2. What would she need to win by....

...for her to get enough pledged delegates to win the nomination? That number should be perfectly clear in advance of the primary. My understanding is that even if she wins PA by the margins showing now, that she still doesn't pick up enough pledged delegates to win the nomination.

[RiverStone]

11. Your assumption is correct, but...

Obama already has a lock on the "pledged delegates", but she is hoping with enough BIG wins that can convince the SD's to go against the will of the pledged D's. Obama has actually had much bigger margins of victory - but she is banking on the early voting states of CA and NY to help justify this strategy. There is the popular vote to consider too - and Obama leads there currently by 600K (in legal primaries/caucuses).

[SteelPenguin]

16. I don't know what the actual numbers are now

I think something impossible like 70% or higher. There's, in reality, no plausible way she'll be able to overtake Obama in delegates. She can win every remaining state by 20% in each and she wouldn't enter the convention with more delegates.

Playing up these states as her gaining momentum or having a shot is just ludicrous and I don't understand what she's actually doing at this point. Pinning her hopes on some sort of out of left field scandal or being able to sway the superdelegates seems pretty extreme.

As a PA resident who has yet to vote, or to make my choice of who to vote, the fact that she's remaining on the ballot interestingly is making me less likely to vote for her.

[Medusa]

3. He's had strong showings in nearly every state

hasn't stopped her yet.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. Well, Clinton lost Texas, and she's still in.

So I doubt PA will count either.

[Quixote1818]

5. I think as long as their is a 1 in a billion chance she can buy off the Super's then she will stay

in. She is that power hungry.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

6. it's MS tomorrow. he aready won AL.

[RiverStone]

27. Thank you --- fixed.

:hi: I'm getting all these Obama victories mixed up!

[BumRushDaShow]

9. She should have stepped down a month ago.

She will not get any "big win" here in PA. People keep comparing PA to OH but they are not alike. The western part of the state might be a little closer to it but not the east.

[harun]

23. I am thinking the establishment will probably try to push her to

step down but it probably won't happen. Obama has the lead and will likely win every state except maybe PA here on out.

[LibDemAlways]

10. The most booming industries in the part of PA where

my dad grew up are nursing homes and funeral parlors. The population is aged and Hillary has a lock on that vote. Obama will do better in the Philadelphia area, but whether he can get close overall is debatable.

I think Hillary will take PA by a respectable margin and the battle will continue.

And please note, I have no horse in this race. I was an Edwards supporter, don't particularly like either Hillary or Obama, but will vote for the nominee in November.

[flor de jasmim]

14. He will have 6 weeks to win over the voters--that will make a difference--

even among the segments of the population that have gone for Hillary.

[LibDemAlways]

19. If my dad's relatives are any indication, he's going to

have an uphill battle. Hillary's dad comes from that area and the locals consider her one of their own.

[SteelPenguin]

20. I agree in general but

I think Obama will close the gap though by primary day. It would surprise me if Obama were to actually win PA, but it would surprise me more if Clinton wins it by more than 10%. It'll be more like 2-3% on election day.

The thing that I think Rendell missed about PA though, is that while there is alot of racism still going on here to one degree or another, there's also a huge amount of Clinton hatred, even amongst the conservative democrats here. It's not rational, but it's there. I know a number of democrats who would not vote for Hillary in the general election (or at least claim they wouldn't) and a number of republicans who would vote for Obama (or at least claim they would). Who knows.

I bet Obama wins Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but Clinton takes the northeast of PA and the rural areas across the rest of the state. It'll be close though.

[harun]

24. If she does win it won't be by more than 5%, I think Obama is going

to take it though. He has plenty of time to get things organized here (I am in PA).

[Bright Eyes]

12. She'll go all the way to the convention

Out of spite.

[noel711]

13. She won't step down....

This election is hers; she's 'inevidable,' and she's owed it
by all the grief the Clintons went through.

No way she will concede graciously; has she ever once
congratulated Obama after he's won a primary?

She won't do it, she can't do it.

Let's be honest: her behavior during this primary
is what she would be like as president, in fact,
it'll probably be a worse tone. Remember how people
act when they are being interviewed for a new job?
Would you hire Hillary for a position in your firm
if she said such things, and did such things?

[Mooney]

17. Sadly, I think you're right

If Obama wins, I can see Hillary crashing the inauguration and trying to knock the bible out from under Obama's hand.

[Deep13]

15. Democracy is not "insanity."

And the voters of PA would have to do something pretty "insane" for that to happen.

[RiverStone]

22. Democracy is not the problem, the party eating our own is...

The sad thing is there is a toll to be paid for this forced march through the mud all the way to the convention; there would even be a bigger price to pay if Super Delegates over rode the will of the electorate.

We would lose a generation of voters and many folks would walk away from the party in disgust.

Democracy rocks, but if free speech includes tearing down candidates in our party to such a degree that who ever the victor is --- is left battered and bruised by campaign rhetoric that can be used against him (or her) by the pukes.

That is the madness I speak of. And I would love it to end with an Obama victory on 4/22.

[Deep13]

26. Don't worry about arming the Republicans.

What's going on now will seem like polite conversation compared to what the R.'s will do. It reminds of all the discussion about terrorist methods following 9/11/01. People kept asking, "Should we talk about these things on TV? Won't it give terrorists ideas?" The answer, of course was "No, the terrorists already know about this stuff." Same with the R.'s. They have enough institutional memory to know how to make Santa Claus look like Hitler.

We should never have run a Black man and a woman in the same year. :-(

[invictus]

18. At this point, Hillary is probably eyeing 2012.

It looks like her plan is to destroy Obama so that he will lose to McNasty and then Hillary will run again in 2012.

[ieoeja]

29. She's already blown 2012.

The GOP will air her "McCain definitely has the experience, Obama just has a speech" soundbite ad nauseum throughout the general election. That video will make it appear she is effectively campaigning for McCain this year. And should McCain win, be touted as a major reason he won.

I can not imagine too many Democrats voting for her in 2012 after that.

[endarkenment]

21. I think not.

Unless it is a blowout in the other direction Clinton is going to stay in until the end. I do not really have a problem with that. I do have a problem with the direction she has taken her campaign.

[NorthernSpy]

25. no -- because neocons are using her campaign to try to take down Obama...

Real Democrats would size up their chances, and fold before damaging the party if the odds were too long. The neocons didn't care how badly they damaged the Republican Party, and they won't care how badly they damage ours, either.


The faction who are currently driving Hillary's campaign are not real Democrats. They are neocons who have landed in her camp because with the GOP in disfavor, they needed somewhere to go, and they prefer her to McCain (whom they don't quite trust) -- and Obama, whom they outright fear.

[invictus]

28. McCain might as well be a neocon. The man LOVES war.

He sings songs about bombing countries. He practically foams at the mouth talking about how there will be "many more wars" under his administration and that he would keep US troops in Iraq for 100 years.