THE MATH - Monday, March 10

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Monday, March 10

2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Changes today:
- Popular vote (IA,ME,NV,WA added)
- Superdelegate totals updated
- More extra details

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,619.0 of 3,227.0 – 81.2%

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 10:
Hillary Clinton – 1,477.5 (547.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,599.5 (425.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 945.0
(Sources: AP, Wikipedia 3/10/08)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 10:
Hillary Clinton – 1,230.5
Barack Obama – 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/10/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 247 (Source: AP 3/10/08)
Barack Obama – 211 (Source: AP 3/10/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 337

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 10 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton – 12,748,162
(Source: Wikipedia 3/10/08 plus states listed above)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 10 (includes WA):
Barack Obama – 12,533,944
Hillary Clinton – 12,150,484

Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 10:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, as of March 10 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton – 13,619,148

With Michigan only added, as of March 10* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton – 13,076,471
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 10* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton – 13,947,457
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,619.0 of 3,540.0, or 74.0%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%

Clinton’s wins over 58%: (3)
Arkansas – 70%
New York – 58%
Rhode Island – 58%

Obama’s wins over 58%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%
Wisconsin – 58%

MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.php

(emphasis mine)

PENNSYLVANIA

There are 158 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Winning with 70% here would require Senator Clinton to pick up 111 of those delegates to Senator Obama's 47.

If she does this, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 60.6% in all the remaining contests, under status quo.

If new elections are held in both Michigan and Florida, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 56.4% in all the remaining contests including Florida and Michigan.

Only if Michigan and Florida are BOTH seated as is, from the January elections, AND Senator Clinton takes Pennsylvania with 70%, would she catch up to Senator Obama.

That's a very tall order, everything considered.

*********

Please keep this kicked for easier access in GDP.

[DerekJ]

thx for the update

[scheming daemons]

1. Math has an anti-Hillary bias!

As such.... we need to change the rules of mathematics to make it more "fair".

[L0oniX]

3. Maybe she is using Bushes "fuzzy math" n/t

[nxylas]

30. Hillabee didn't major in math

She majored in magical thinking.

[adoraz]

2. great post!

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks

:hi:

[writes3000]

5. Obama got two more SDs today. n/t

[SoonerPride]

6. And Clinton lost one

Spitzer

[grantcart]

8. I saw Neville (MS) which is included in OP totals

who was the other?

[phrigndumass]

9. The source (AP) only lists the number

Here's the link to AP tally:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_state/delsuper_DEM.html?SITE=ILCHTELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Best source for a list of pledging superdelegates is demconwatch:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

:dunce:

[grantcart]

7. very good and thanks for updating this every day

[phrigndumass]

10. bump

[phrigndumass]

12. bump

[phrigndumass]

24. bump

[phrigndumass]

31. bump

[Georgie_92]

11. Thanks!

[hogwyld]

13. kick

[AllexxisF1]

14. Photoshop Tells Truth.

[phrigndumass]

18. That's exactly how I look when W speaks

... makes me cringe.

[Carolina]

15. K&R!

Thanks for the update and valuable info.

[LiveLiberally]

16. kick /nt

[dysfunctional press]

17. so to be CLEAR- Obama leads in every possible vote-counting scenario.

the shrill-bots cannot claim otherwise.

[phrigndumass]

19. Even in popular votes

yes

[TheDoorbellRang]

20. Cool! My figures pretty much coincide with yours.

I used the AP and Green Papers sources at DemConWatch to determine how many pledged candidates would be needed by each to achieve the majority of PD's. I came up with Clinton needing 61% vs 39% for Obama if FL and MI remain excluded, and Clinton needing 57% vs. 43% for Obama if FL and MI have a redo. I can't even consider a scenario where they would be allowed to be seated as is.

An interesting permutation to throw in the mix are the 60 pledged delegates already in play but unassigned to Obama or Clinton, which is what threw my computations off slightly from yours. I included them as if they were in complete free play, which of course they really are not. There are still 26 in Edwards' favor, and AP lists the other 34 in their totals as uncommitted.

Here's the 34 breakdown, and a guesstimate about where they'll end up:

CA - 7
California had the final count at their state site in the last week or so, but The Green Papers is the only source that shows the update: C = +1; O = +6

CO - 10
Obama won the state 67-32%, so an equitable apportionment would distribute the total delegates:
O 37/C 18, or C = +5; O = +5

DA - 3
Can't find too much data on this one, so I just went with the Green Papers distribution:
C = +1.5; O = +1.5

DC - 2
Again, giving the delegates out proportionately would mean C = +1; O = +1

NY - 1
Clinton won here 57-40% and as of now she has at least 5 delegates more than the proportion of her win would seem to indicate (57% of 232 = 132.24. C has 138 to date.) So let's give C = 0; O = +1

OH - 2
All things in proportion: C = +1; O = +1

TX - 9
Things are at a stalemate waiting for the caucus results, but right now it looks as tho this could go
C = +2; O = +7

We end up with an additional 11.5 for Clinton, and 22.5 for Obama. :D

Now as to the 26 pledged delegates to Edwards: I asked in another thread yesterday if anyone knew how they would be dispersed. No one had a link with the ultimate answer, but IndianaGreen thought that they would go as Edwards' delegates to the convention and vote for him on the first ballot. If there is a second ballot they are free to vote however they want, becoming -- in essence -- mini super D's. If anyone has info (and an authoritative link) showing otherwise, I'm sure we would all be grateful.

[phrigndumass]

22. Will you marry me? (kidding)

but ... wow! You're speaking my language. :D

You have used a very solid foundation to come up with those projections. I wouldn't be surprised if the results are exactly as you project.

I'm interested in knowing more about the convention ballot process also, especially since neither candidate can win with pledged delegates alone from the state and territory contests. Links, anyone?

It would make sense that Edwards' delegates would be required to vote for him on first ballot. That's how they were elected to vote. But I recall hearing somewhere that all pledged delegates are only required to vote as they were elected to vote on the first ballot. I can't imagine Clinton and Obama delegates changing on a second ballot, though, if both candidates are still in the race at convention time. Wouldn't that be like mutiny?

[TheDoorbellRang]

25. Alas. My husband needs me to balance the checkbook every month

:rofl:

It's a given at this point that neither can hit the magic number without the Super D's. But it also seems a given that, barring something catastrophic, Obama will go into the convention with the majority of pledged delegates. If one or the other does not get the nomination on the first ballot, the resulting chaos will be not unlike a -- dare I say it -- caucus.

I'm hoping that the Super D's will settle one way or another by the last contests in June, so that the nominee has those two extra months to go after McCain before our convention.

[phrigndumass]

26. I'm willing to bet you balance a mean checkbook!

:dunce:

LOL on the chaos being like a caucus!

I have a feeling it won't draw out to June. My crystal ball is telling me that Pennsylvania will be Hillary Clinton's air apparent. She'll have a look at the figures afterwards and realize that even her best prospects won't be good enough.

Some of us self-informed folks are seeing it already.

[apocalypsehow]

21. Your arithmetic is sexist!!!!!11!

:sarcasm:

K & R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

23. All three?

:rofl:

[phrigndumass]

27. Back soon ...

Please give this a kick every now and then. Thanks!

[rosesaylavee]

28. K & R

[Life Long Dem]

29. Pennsylvania with 70% and the remainder at 60.6%

Okay.