What is going on? Bush leading Kerry in Oregon (47-45)

[TheStateChief]

http://osrl.uoregon.edu/press/report/2004PresElection.pdf

Poll of 444 registered voters from March 19 to April 7. Nader only pulls 1%.

[CalebHayes]

1. OH GOD!!! What the hell is going on here???!!?!?!

[salonghorn70]

2. I Was Surprised

at that news also.:-(

[onehandle]

3. The Sky is Falling!

It's only April. Calm down.

[Joanne98]

4. Bull Shit

Don't beieve it.

[Snivi Yllom]

23. total bull shit

[sjgman9]

5. Oregon?!?

I thought Oregon was part of the left coast, a strong liberal state?


Hey Oregon DUers, what the fuck?

[brainoverload]

6. oregon is split like the rest of the country

A republican couldn't get elected in Portland if he/she were running against a toadstool. On the other hand, a democrat couldn't get elected in 75% of the counties <AKA rural counties> in the rest of the state

[King of New Orleans]

7. Gore won Oregon by less than 10,000 votes

Nader made it alot closer than it should have been.

Also, please notice that the poll spanned respondents over almost 3 weeks.

Also note that 47-45 means neither candidate leads

Why people get so hyped over things like this I don't comprehend.

[sjgman9]

9. Coming from a strong blue state

I always assumed oregon would be one that could be counted on.


OK, its early, i know, but i like to see bush just getting his ass kicked everwhere

Go team! Go DNC

[Trajan]

8. One poll ...

By one 'minor' source in a non-descript college ...

Furthermore: with a measley 444 sample size ....

Dont buy into it, and CERTAINLY dont let it get you down ....

[sandnsea]

11. Uhm, UofO is not non-descript

It's the most liberal college in Oregon, Berkeley north. I wish we could dismiss the poll that easily. I can see how the demographics in Oregon could create that result. :cry:

[sandnsea]

10. Upper income seniors, poor stupid people

These are the two groups we lose to the most. We can get the seniors on Medicare, those poor stupid people I think are lost.

The worst part of it is our Democratic base and that has got to be the war and the affect of Howard Dean and all the bullshit he said about Kerry in the primaries. That will get knocked out as we go forward.

I'm mostly worried about the forest fires. We can lose alot of people who buy into the "thinning" program I think, ALOT of people.

And, if you want more bad news, the Bushies just opened their campaign office in Portland yesterday. We've got an awesome volunteeer organizer in Portland, but it's not the same as a campaign office.

We've got work to do Oregonians!

[Lexingtonian]

12. So?

Provided that Undecideds vote as they usually do (about 2:1 in favor of the challenger, if not more so) that's still a 50-49 Kerry win. Not that I really believe that real Bush support is over 45% in any Blue State, or that Nader is not getting at least 2% in Oregon.

Yes, you are seeing the last actively conservative people getting sucked over to the Bush side. They've enlisted the last old white men and little boys. It's not going to be enough, though.

And I think Kerry hasn't been in the PNW for the last month or so, and so there hasn't been much push against the Bush ad campaign. Not that Oregonians aren't going to see enough of JK when the General campaign begins in earnest.

[sandnsea]

13. God I hope so!!!!

I don't think he's even been here yet!!!

[Thrill]

14. 444 people is hardly

a way to determine whats really going on. And there is no way Bush is winning Oregon

[WI_DEM]

15. according to this poll, Oregon has been "trending Republican"

while Kerry leads by double digits in Portland, Bush leads by double-digits in the rest of the state.

Women only favor Kerry by two-points. 18-44 year olds favor Bush. 44 and over favor Kerry.

[Blasphemer]

16. The GOP is putting alot of effort in Oregon

So it's not too surprising. I've always considered it a battleground state. I still think it will remain Blue based on voter turnout.

[Domitan]

17. That's the key

18-44 year olds favor Bush.

I read of a report where kids aged 12-17 were overwhelmingly for Bush (at least as of late Feb to mid March). It shouldn't be surprising that many empty-headed, inattentive youths (seems to be much more of that compared to past generations) would find Bush more appealing than Kerry. Simple minds think alike.

[mobuto]

19. When 12 year olds can vote

then I'll be worried.

[West Coast Democrat]

32. We've had Democratic Governors for years.....

and in 2000 Nader got 5% of the vote. The metropolitan areas are strongly Democratic, and the rural populations are shrinking.

[mobuto]

18. Questions weren't rotated

That seems like a small deal, but question wording counts for a lot. George Bush's name always came before John Kerry's. Nader only polls 1% because voters had to volunteer his name - it wasn't an option.

[maxwall]

20. Not that many polled, and Bush ads are on 24/7...

I'm here at the U of Oregon School of Law, and we're seeing Bush ads 24/7 on TV, but Kerry ads are NOWHERE to be seen. I haven't seen one in over a month. Kerry needs to bring the heat up here, and he needs to start to address things we care about, like saving our forests and species. We've seen Bush gut environmental protections. We also need Kerry to start saying how he wants to provide jobs up here. We've got one of the highest unemployment rates nationwide (could still be THE highest). Plus you'll find most of us libs are VERY anti-Iraq war, and Kerry's position, as well as his votes on PATRIOT Act, IWR, etc are VERY troubling. If Dean was still in, he'd have won Oregon hands down. (Disclosure: I was a heavy Dean backer, and still am...) Kerry needs to come out swinging NOW, because Bush is doing his best to define him.
However, that's such a small polling sample, there's no way it's accurate. I'd be interested to see where they polled. 222 could have been the UO College Republicans.... :puke:

[mobuto]

21. No he shouldn't

Kerry will come out swinging when he's ready, and not one second before. Kerry could blast Oregon with ads right now and eke out a lead, but to what ends? The election isn't in April, its in November. And we want him to peak in November.

Remember Iowa. Dean had far more money than Kerry had and he ran ads for months. But Kerry played it cool and spent almost nothing - nothing up to the last ten days, when he fired away with everything he had and came, out of nowhere - out of fourth place - into a landslide victory. Kerry knows what he's doing.

Let Bush spend his millions in April; because Oregon's voting for Kerry when it counts.

[maxwall]

22. The problem is...

... I want Kerry to peak in November, too, but right now, Bush is defining Kerry up here, and Kerry is letting him. These swing voters and independents just see ads all day saying Kerry will raise their taxes, raise gas prices, etc. And so many of them aren't 'net saavy, that they're not going to get info other than that on the idiot box. We need SOME sort of ad campaign other than word of mouth to reach these people before they believe how Bush is painting Kerry.
I know that $$$ is the main problem, but when someone is attacking you in a key state, you need to fight back hard... Even the moveon ads ACT ads aren't running much here anymore... :shrug:

[Padraig18]

24. If you let one poll 6 1/2 months before the GE get to you this bad, ...

... you'll be a basket case by the time November gets here. It's one poll... :shrug:

[Capn Sunshine]

29. On a more positive note, Kerry leads by double digits in NY

:nuke:

[Zynx]

25. Oregon is quite the swing state. It has never been a hard left state.

Just because Clinton won it by a large margin means nothing. No other Dem has.

[Nicholas_J]

26. One poll

And a local University Poll at that.

Better News is that New York has finally moved from leaning towards Kerry to being solid BLue Democrat with Kerry having a double digit lead in New York. A few othe states have now fallen from leaning towards Bush back into too close to tell territory. Last week Kerry had 196 estimated Electoral Votes and Bush had 202 but this week Bush has dropped to 175 sure electoral votes Kerry with 198 because of this change in Oregon. Kerry is now ahead again in the electoral college mix.

Kerry has double digit lead in New York in latest Quinnipaic Poll.

April 14, 2004 -- Giuliani is strongest candidate for NY Governor, Quinnipiac University poll finds; Kerry has double-digit lead over Bush in New York

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10890.xml


And the Mason Dixon Poll showing Bush in the lead in Florida has been shown to have been an anomaly as the latest Rasmussen polls are reflecting what all of the past polls in FLorida have said, a close race with Kerry showing a small lead in Florida.

Florida: Kerry 47% Bush 46%
Florida 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 46%
Kerry 47%
Other 2%
Not Sure 5%
RasmussenReports.com

April 14, 2004--In the state of Florida, the race for President is a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry attracting 47% of the vote in the Sunshine State and President George W. Bush earning 46%.
The survey was completed just before President Bush's nationally televised Press Conference on Iraq.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_April.htm

The fact is that more states that were leaning towards Bush last two weeks in a few polls are falling away from that lean.

I think within a few weeks this latest Oregon poll will be seen to be another anomaly. Bush tagets an area, goes up in a poll or two, but within a few weeks, those polls start refelcting earlier polling data again.

[jsw_81]

27. What's going on? Oregon is a swing state.

It went for Gore by less than one percentage point last time and I'm not at all surprised that Bush and Kerry are running neck and neck.

[Capn Sunshine]

28. Maybe the Kerry campaign should start chasing votes

instead of scaring away and insulting every progressive they speak with, particularly in online forums.

[w4rma]

30. It looks like Oregon Democrats have some work to do. Immediately.

The barbarians are at the gate.

[West Coast Democrat]

31. Won't Happen

THey must not have polled Multnomah County

[Lydia Leftcoast]

33. As a former Oregon resident

I know that Portland, Eugene, Corvallis, Astoria, and Ashland are the only "safe" Democratic areas in the state. Fortunately, they have enough of a percentage of the population to prevent abominations such as the two attempts at anti-gay laws and the governorship of Kevin Mannix (shudder).

It was only the last-minute returns from Portland and Astoria that put Ted "at least he's not a Republican" Kulongoski over the top in 2002. This led some of the Republicans to cry foul because the Mannix supporters claimed more land area than the Kulongoski supporters. ("One acre, one vote?")

Portland and Eugene in particular are VERY liberal, while the rural areas are Republican, mostly with a libertarian rather than a fundamentalist tinge, since the state is largely secularized. That's why both tax cuts and assisted suicide have passed easily in referendums.

Nader won 7% of the vote here in 2000, and he would have won more if Bushboy hadn't been so scary. There were a lot of last-minute changes of heart, at least if the reports from the "leaning Nader" types I know are to be believed.

The key to winning Oregon for the Dems will be turnout in Portland, Eugene, Corvallis, Astoria, and Ashland. If I were running the Oregon Democratic party, I would be conducting massive GOTV activities, using a block captain system so that every Dem or Pacific Green voter was contacted personally.

[hayu_lol]

34. Remember that Oregon has yet to hold the primary...

the work in the state by Nader and Kucinich will siphon off a considerable percentage from Kerry. Kucinich even either has come or is coming to Klamath Falls--he may just escape without being tarred and feathered by our conservative core here.

The state is unusual in that the I-5 corridor--the cities named several times above--is primarily liberal. Medford is probably a toss up and we all know what Grants Pass is--Orygun's own Sandpoint Idaho.

Much of the coast and almost all of the east of the Cascades area is hard right.

Fortunately the I-5 corridor includes our largest cities.

At his recent convention, Nader failed to get the thousand votes necessary to qualify for the ballot. Now he needs 15,000 votes and has three months to get them.

With Dennis also beating the bushes for support all over the state, he becomes a sort of spoiler as well.

Dunno how this will work out. Gore only won Oregon by 6000 votes the last time around. We'll just have to wait until after the primary to see what is really going on.

[Ardee]

35. The boy stood on the burning deck

without a clue.....

Even in California some polls are claiming increasing support for Bushbaby....keep it up democrats ,you are doing Bushs' work for him.

Your candidate is prattling more and more like a republican conservative and you wonder where the support is going?

Oh yeah, silly me, its all Nader's fault after all, it couldnt possibly be attributable to flaws within your candidate or the leadership of your party after all.

[bitchkitty]

36. They are going to make a play for Oregon -

and as everyone knows, they don't play fair. We mail in our ballots, who's to say they don't already have their elves in place? The religious right are getting pretty strong here, outside of Portland. I live just 30 miles away and it's nothing but white mormons and born again xtians. This town is as redneck as any town in Georgia, except that here you don't see any black faces.

[ramble2155]

37. 4.7 percent margin of error with 6 percent undecided

First of all, you cant trust polls. Second, Bushys lead is completely within the margin of error. So you really dont know who is leading who. But I am happy to see Nader only pulling one percent. What a great ¨second front¨ against Bush and the republicans.