Can Hillary Clinton still win?

[emilyg]

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

After a slew of primary and caucus victories for Barack Obama - who has been out-organising Hillary Clinton's machine, and getting months of media adulation - he has been suddenly stopped short of coronation.


Hillary Clinton can still win the nomination - but it will be tough
Mrs Clinton won in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, and once again, the race is on.

Even more importantly, it seems for the first time in a long time that her message of experience and getting things done may outweigh his call for change.

Yet despite Mrs Clinton's burst of momentum, and Obama's success, it is impossible for either one to secure the 2,025 delegates that would give them the Democratic nomination with pledged delegates alone.

Both need the support of many of the 796 super-delegates - the elected officials and party dignitaries who have special voting rights in the nominating process - to get the nomination.

So, despite months of glee over big turnouts and voter enthusiasm, the hand-wringing has begun anew in the Democratic Party over how to get to a nominee.

Obama's upper hand

There are two mathematical


more........................http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7287595.stm

[saltpoint]

1. Still possible but increasingly unlikely.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

2. If She Gets The Delegate Gap Below 100, The National Polls On Her Side, And The PV Near Even Or In

her favor, then she's have one hell of a chance of ending up with the nomination.

[loveangelc]

5. what do you mean the National Vote and the PV?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

12. You're Right. My Apologies. I Edited.

I meant the national polls.

[Johnny__Motown]

21. No, she has no chance.. losing by 99 delegates is still a loss,

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

24. No It Isn't. Not Sure What Primary Rules You're Thinkin About, But It Ain't These.

If Obama doesn't reach the delegate threshold necessary to declare victory, then there is no winner. Instead, it will come down to a whole lot of other factors, pledges being a mere one of them, that will decide who gets the nomination.

And if Hillary continues carrying the big states, closes the PV gap or even pulls ahead, gets the delegate gap to under 100, and the national polls on her side, I'd say she'd have a better chance of getting the nomination than Obama. That's something you better start coming to terms with, since it's reality, as opposed to your made up assertion that pledged delegates are all that matters.

[Elidor]

63. From the article:

Mrs Clinton must win decisively in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana and Puerto Rico.

A very tall order. I haven't seen the polls, but I'll take Obama at 2-1 odds.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

64. The Article Completely Refutes Your Statement.

You reference the article, which isn't the authority on making the rules anyway.

Furthermore, the article says quite clearly that popular vote matters more and does not say anything that supports the 99 delegate argument.

What was the point of your post? It definitely didn't contradict any of my statements, that's for sure.

[Drachasor]

44. That's true, but it far more likely she can't get the PV or lower the Delegate lead by much

Yeah, but it would be extremely difficult for her to get the gap below 100 pledged delegates. Also, Obama has a significant advantage in the popular vote -- you have to add in Florida and Michigan for Hillary to be ahead by a mere 20k votes (apparently). Two problems with just adding those States as-is. First, Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, so he gets zero votes there. Secondly, there was no campaigning in Florida, which typically results in a dramatic reduction in Hillary's lead in any State. When these two primaries are done over, Hillary will get only a small boost from these (and Obama could well win Michigan). Pennsylvania is likely to be very close as well, and the net result of all this is that Hillary realistically can't get the popular vote unless Obama self-destructs. She can drag out the fight a great deal, but it won't get her victory (it might cost Obama a victory in the general, however).

[Johnny__Motown]

3. No, she can't win... and it was her coronation that was stopped.. he won votes,

[DemVet]

4. Absolutely.

IF Barack Obama doesn't reach 2025 delegates by the convention, the superdelegates come into play. If that's the case, advantage Hillary.

[Johnny__Motown]

10. why do you think that is her advantage? she will be 125+ pledged delegates behind

[DJ13]

17. "advantage Hillary"

Uh, no.

Advantage Obama.

The SD's are for the most part politicians that will be needing to run for reelection themselves, and the Clintons have never had coattails that helped win an reelection for down ticket Democrats.

Obama has a record Hillary can only dream about of helping other Democrats in close races across the country.

Then theres the point about both candidates having contributed to SD's upcoming races, and once again Obama is ahead there too.

The SD's wont vote for Hillary unless she actually is the undeniable front runner by the convention.

At the chance of that is near zero now.

[loveangelc]

6. she could but it's increasingly unlikely...but we can't rule anything out....

[Kazak]

7. *ahem* Or, stay in it long enough to shoehorn Gore in? *cough*

*mutter* *mutter*

[Exilednight]

8. No, if Obama doesn't get it, then neither will get it.

[zabet]

9. Yes.

If it goes to convention without
a definitive nominee, she definitely
has a good chance.

[RememberWellstone]

11. yes

And everyone knows it.

[NJSecularist]

13. Hillary still has a decent chance to win the nomination

Obama should still be favored, but Hillary still can win.

[Johnny__Motown]

15. NO,, she can't... she just had her best week ever and the gap increased by 1 delegate

how the hell can she win by constantly losing?

[NJSecularist]

22. Neither candidate has enough pledged delegates to win the nomination

So this will be decided at the convention.

[Johnny__Motown]

23. You sound like Huckabee... she is WAY to far behind to catch up. He will have a large lead going to

the convention. SDs won't just roll over and give it to Hillary. Deal with it

[NJSecularist]

31. There is no comparision between Huckabee and Hillary

[wileedog]

60. Other than the whole "No Chance" thing

[XemaSab]

14. Delegate counter

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

[rocktivity]

16. Obama got the majority of Texas' delegates.

and Hillary will have to pull in 62% of the vote in ALL of the remaining contests just break even.

:headbang:
rocknation

[laugle]

18. Hillary will win the national

polls and popular vote. Barack will be ahead in delegates. And then it's "let's make a deal" time, and hopefully "experience" will win out!!

There is no choice but to have them on the same ticket.

[Johnny__Motown]

20. Impossible... she is way to far behind to catch up in popular vote, please learn some basic math

They won't be on the same ticket, she is a fatally flawed candidate

[laugle]

42. Do some research....

you sound scared!!

[Drachasor]

46. She is too far behind in the PV to get it

Even if you count in Florida (and no campaigning there helps Hillary a great deal), Obama is winning. If you throw in Michigan, Hillary has a 20k lead (which is nearly nothing). However, Obama wasn't on the ticket in Michigan, so that's just throwing Hillary a bunch of votes for no good reason.

Michigan and Florida are going to be redone. When that is done Obama might win Michigan (or it will be very close). Hillary is favored to win Florida, but he'll probably pull it so that it is much closer than it is today (much like how he greatly reduced her lead in Texas and Ohio). The remaining races are going to be close or Obama wins. When all is said in done, there just aren't enough votes to significantly change Obama's 600k lead not counting Florida and Michigan. The best Hillary can likely do is narrow it to 300k votes (if she wins Florida and Michigan like she won Ohio). More likely Obama's lead will be greater than that, however.

[laugle]

54. Neither candidate will have the 2025 delegates

for the nomination--so the superdelegates will need to decide it along with the candidates.

A deal will be struck if she wins the popular vote and he is ahead in delegates.

He's won mostly small red caucus states and she has won all large states except Illinois and most of the blue demo stronghold states. Hell, California is like 10 small states, if she wins the total popular vote, that puts her in a strong negotiating position with the supers and shows strong electability.......

Time will tell, we just have to let things play out...........

[Drachasor]

56. She can't WIN the Popular Vote!

Obama in 600,000+ votes ahead in the Popular Vote. Even if Hillary wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida by 10% (like she won Ohio), he'll still be ahead in the Popular vote by 200k+, especially when you factor in the other wins he is likely to have (and Michigan is likely to be very close).

Obama is going to get to the convention with the popular vote and most pledged delegates.

[laugle]

58. We will just have to wait and see. Thanks anyway for your

civil post to me. We will just have to agree to disagree.

[Drachasor]

59. My only point is that Hillary can only win if Obama implodes, which seems extraordinarily unlikely

[laugle]

61. I've been voting

for more than 35 years, and I've learned in politics, anything is possible...........you can drive yourself crazy with the speculation, but no one really knows for sure!

[Maribelle]

19. Hillary has pulled a strong Democratic vote in the big states. Obama's wins are on shifting sand.

In the big states, Obama's supporters are fooling themselves thinking Hillary's voters would automatically vote for Obama. That won't happen in Massachusetts. And it will not happen in Florida. Ohio doesn't like Obama either.

When Hillary wins Pennsylvania she proves overwhelming that she is the much stronger candidate.

[kwenu]

26. That's up to them to choose McCain then because Obama will be the only Dem choice on the ticket.

[Maribelle]

29. It seems to me Hillary will win. She's Big Blue, and that's exactly what it takes.

[kwenu]

40. Yeah. Unfortunately, there's that delegate thingie that Hillary can't overcome.

[Spider Jerusalem]

37. You have to be smoking crack if you think Obama can't win those big Democratic states.

Seriously. Only an idiot would presume that New York, and Massachusetts, and California, etc, go in the Republican column in November if Hillary isn't the nominee.

[Maribelle]

38. I don't agree. But I don't think we'll need to worry about it.

[Spider Jerusalem]

39. You seriously think CA, NY, MA, etc, will go Republican if Hillary isn't nominated?

I think you're delusional. Those are all considered safe blue states for good reasons.

[Fovea]

25. I wouldn't bet on it.

My money would go on Obama first.

[Bucky]

27. As long as Obama's taking airplanes about the country, Clinton could get the nomination.

Sorry for the grim thought. But she's not playing smart anymore.

[CyberPieHole]

28. Yes, she can still win. She needs to get her message across, and HOPE Obama stumbles...

and the MSM need to keep looking more closely and critically at Obama and, yes, she could still pull this off. It's a hard and long climb, but if ANYONE can do it, it is Hillary Clinton.

[Drachasor]

49. I respectfully disagree

Obama has to self-destruct for Hillary to get the PV lead (especially since Michigan and Florida are going to be redone, and without them he leads by 600,000 votes, the vast majority of which, btw, come from primaries).

Also, I don't really see what anyone is missing about Obama, especially compared to Hillary. I don't really follow what the big problem people have with him is. Some of the things I have heard are:

1. Rezko relations. Except the Illinois press has thoroughly looked at this and found nothing wrong. Did he make a mistake? Sure he did, and he shouldn't have done the real estate deal (that said, there's no evidence he got anything special out of the deal, and he could easily have bought both lots). If you just don't like Obama connected to anything that LOOKS bad, then you need to consider the fact that the Clintons are connected to a bunch of stuff that LOOKS bad. Relatively speaking, Obama has a cleaner record here. I don't see why people demand perfection of him (and he has never claimed he is perfect). If I am missing something, please fill me in.

2. No substance. He has detailed policy plans, and plenty of people that have talked to him in the Senate and elsewhere see a lot of substance to him. Early on in the race (before any primaries) he was accused of being too professorial. Does he have a problem giving an inspiring speech with a bunch of details? Sure, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have details or substance.

3. Double-talk. The Canadian government has said all the NAFTA double-talk is without substance and is investigating the conservative administration officials who spread these rumors and other disinformation. That includes what was said about Obama AND Hillary (because both were originally implicated). Iraq War, well Powers said that he's open to changing his plan when he has more ready access to more military advisors and information (and it depends on the situation on the ground too). That makes sense and should be assumed when ANY politician promises anything. She also said a 16-month withdrawal was an ideal scenerio, which I think was pretty clearly understood by everyone. Obviously plans change given changing circumstances or other problems, and if a candidate is unwilling to change his plans given changing circumstances he winds up having a mess on his hands. I see no problems here, and nothing that doesn't apply equally to Clinton (or are there any supporters that think she wouldn't change her withdrawal plan if circumstances changed?)

4. Lack of experience. This is so silly to me. Some of our inexperienced former Presidents: Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, John Kennedy, among others (note that some of them are among our youngest Presidents as well, certainly younger than Obama). One of our most experienced former Presidents: Buchanan (who is typically rated as the worst President in American history for his many blunders, the most significant of which was not doing anything to stop the Civil War, ease tensions between North and South, or stop the South from arming itself with U.S. military equipment). Frankly, experience CAN be helpful, but it is far from necessary or a good President. Note that I am not saying Obama is another Lincoln, merely that you get very little useful information from "experience" on how good of a President someone will be.

Anyhow, I'm willing to have a calm, rational discussion about this or any other issue regarding Obama.

[Liberal Veteran]

30. My Magic 8 ball says.....Outlook Not So Good.

What a piece of shit! I ask it an important question and it tells me my email program sucks!

[CreekDog]

32. if she wins the nomination it will be of little use to her

at this point. that's sort of the problem.

the only thing I can think of is that her campaign's view is that messing him up in 2008 might make her more viable in 2012. :eyes:

[slick8790]

33. Eh, it's possible.

But I think you and I both know it becomes increasingly unlikely with every contest that passes. I did some math, and since Obama is favored in at least NC, SD, and MS, even if he wins those only 51%-49% she has to get around 64-65% of the delegates in the remaining contests to get a delegate lead.

I'll concede in a close race superdelegates might take in to account the how close the popular vote is, but they also might take in to account how many contests each has won.

Of course this all is assuming FL and MI don't get seated as is, which is now looking very unlikely. If they get seated at all, it'll be in a new primary.

[Stinky The Clown]

34. As a practical matter ..... no

[TriplePlay]

35. Yes, she can still be the Queen of Dubai

She has alot of financial backing there, I hear.

[Spider Jerusalem]

36. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

And if it does happen, she's going to get whipped like a red-headed mule by McCain in the general. If she gets the nomination handed to her by siperdelegates, after entering the convention with FEWER pledged delegates, you can look forward to alienating African Americans and young people from the Democratic party at least for this election cycle, and possibly for a generation. McCain will throw all her talk of 'experience' back at her, play up her negatives, turn the 'kitchen sink' strategy against her by dredging up EVERY shady deal and unsavoury connection of her and Bill's joint history, including Bill's paid consultancy for Dubai, the questionable pardons of people like Marc Rich, the money donated to Bill's presidential library by people for whom certain favours were done in return, etc. At this point, her nomination is the worst-case scenario for the party's chances of winning in November.

[kwenu]

41. Well, she's number one in Bill's book!!!!!!!!! Oh....wait....maybe not.

[emilyg]

50. Good opinions till you stepped in.

[JackORoses]

43. No. Do you actually think she can win with 60% in all of the remaining states?

[democraticscapegoat]

45. She doesnt need to win 60%...

Just keep it close(delegates), lead in popular vote after the FL and MI REVOTE (which she will win by large margins because she looks like the one who fought for them) and rely on the fact that she will have won EVERY large state. CA, OH, NY, NJ, FL, PN, and yes TX. Yes she didnt get the overall delegate lead in TX but she won the popular vote. What is more important delegates or the voices of the actual voters? hmmmmmmmmmm

No doubt she can and will win.

[emilyg]

51. Welcome to DU.

[Drachasor]

52. Ehh, I think you are overestimating the "fought for" effect

1. Clinton only decided to "fight for" Michigan and Florida AFTER it became clear she needed them to go against Obama. She didn't lift a finger before it was in her own best interest. People in those States are likely well-aware of this.

2. The Obama camp is far from against counting Michigan and Florida and some way, and are also in favor of a recount.

So overall, I think the "fought for" tag won't help her much, if at all. Heck, it could even hurt her given when and why she decided to fight for them.

That said, even if she won Florida and Michigan by the same margin she won Ohio (10%), Obama would still have about a 350k+ lead in the Popular Vote (and given the number of States he is going to win, that lead will increase -- Pennsylvania can't wipe that out).

[JackORoses]

53. She won't win MI. And what do you mean by close?

60% brings her to a tie.

She lost Texas, in the eyes of the Superdelegates.

You are one of those who can't see that the Popular vote does not include many Caucuse States.
And Obama is leading that anyway.

[TheZug]

47. If she gets nominated with fewer delegates, votes, and states, I'm GONE.

http://iwillwalkaway.blogspot.com

[democraticscapegoat]

48. ok so bye bye

go vote Refugiclan

[AtomicKitten]

55. She already lost.

[L0oniX]

57. She can't get an honest win. She'll have to cheat some how. n/t

[jonnyblitz]

62. Everybody I talk to believes Obama will be president whether

they are for or against him, Democrat, Republican, or Independent. I would be surprised if Hillary won. I just don't see it.