The PA "T" is similar to OH, but it is mostly republican. IMO, in the closed primary

[AlinPA]

it will not yield the same kinds of results as OH did for Clinton. I won't try to comment on Eastern PA and Western PA. I hear a lot about how PA=OH and thought I would point out this political difference given the closed primary.

[Blue State Bandit]

1. That math would work if Ohio was a true closed Primary like PA.

But it's not. Good point.

[tekisui]

2. Hillary got 77% of the 13% pukes voting in MS.

If anyone thinks that Hillary wins crossover pukes because she is a uniter, you are a fool. Pukes hate the Clinton's and vote for her only to keep it going. She has benefited from them in Ohio, Texas and Mississippi. PA is the end of the road, if she stays in it.

[BringBigDogBack]

9. bingo.

[skipos]

3. She needs to win PA by what, 25%

to even have a shot at the pledged delegate lead. I don't see that happening.

[AlinPA]

4. There are not enough Democrats in the "T" to help her. She will have a hard time in Philadelphia.

Obama could win by a huge margin there. She could be strong around Scranton, Wilkes Barre, Allentown and will probably split W. PA.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

14. Obama will likely carry Pittsburgh and its environs.

But I don't see him doing particularly well in the Beaver/Lawrence/Butler area, as the demographics are quite similar to the Youngstown / Mahoning Co. area of Ohio, where he did quite poorly.

[peace13]

5. PA went for Kerry in an attempt to turn this country around.

I will be very surprised if they let us down. That being said, I plan to volunteer in PA and help get the job done. Peace, Kim

[Yael]

6. Thanks Kim -- we appreciate that!

:hi:

[Zynx]

7. There are fair numbers of Democratic votes there.

For example, Centre County recorded 30,000 votes for Kerry in 2004. The evidence is those were mostly Democratic voters in those rural Ohio counties in any case.

[AlinPA]

8. As you know Centre County contains PSU and IMO Obama could do well there.

[jefferson_dem]

10. What about "the Nutter effect"?

It sure would be nice if Obama had the Philly machine working for him.

Does Kweisi have any influence anymore?

[Red Knight]

12. Over 2,000 Republicans switched to Dem

According to the local paper this morning. About 400 Dems switched to Republican. They have until the 27th to register. So even though it's a closed state, I guess if a Republican were motivated enough he/she could switch parties to vote in the Democratic election--especially since the Republican one is over. They can always switch back later.

Of course they could be switching because they like a Dem candidate.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. Mixmaster Mike = DLC and Clinton supporter

There is no "Nutter effect" here in Philly. He, like Fast Eddie Rendell, will be summarily ignored. Obama doesn't have a problem here. If he comes to rally here a couple times in the next 6 weeks, he could help to assure a >70% turnout (which would be in record territory and was type of numbers that helped put Bill Clinton in office in 1992). The potential exists that the eastern part of the state can throw the whole state to Obama. It has happened in the past where the east turnout overrode the whole state (e.g., going to Kerry in 2004).

[Zynx]

15. Kerry would not have won without his margins in the west of the state.

You can't get blown out in the west.

[Hersheygirl]

11. I said this before and I'll say it again.

I live in the heartland of republican conservatism. Number one, people here have buyer's remorse when it comes to Bush. Number two, they hate Hillary with a passion. Number three, they hate Rendell even more. And now for the big one, number four, they don't trust McCain, so Obama is looking mighty good. Word is we have have Republicans for Obama. And yes they are crossing over to vote for Obama in the primary.