Popular vote. Anyway you count it.. Obama is ahead. Including Fl and MI

[Tom Joad]

even Michigan (do i need to remind people he was not even on the ballot there?) and Florida, where neither campaigned, per agreement.


Popular Vote Total - 13,248,002 49.5% 12,565,001 46.9% Obama +683,001 +2.6%

Popular Vote (w/FL) - 13,824,216 48.5% 13,435,987 47.1% Obama +388,229 +1.4%

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)*- 13,824,216 47.5% 13,764,296 47.3%

Here's the link....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Why do you think this is?
Choose One
a) Hillary said, in regard to her impassioned speech and vote in favor of authorizing Bush to go to war:
“If the most important thing to any of you is choosing someone who did not cast that vote or has said his vote was a mistake, then there are others to choose from,” -- it looks like people did indeed choose "other"

b) Because Obama is an African-American.

[jackson_dem]

1. Let's see what happens in PA. She may gain 250-350 k there alone

[FARAFIELD]

3. that wont matter

Even then shell still be behind in delegates etc, and will lose more states, so his popular vote total will go up even higher. SHe has to win every state right now 52 47 to even sniff the lead. after tonight it will be someting like 54 46 to get the popular vote lead. THere not enough votes to save her.

[jackson_dem]

6. 250-350k down with Florida and Michigan left is very doable

The odds are still with Obama but is hardly a sure thing as Obamites try to convince themselves each day, even though they continue to hammer at an "irrelevant" candidate. Notice Obama thinks Hill is relevant? He isn't ignoring her like McCain did to Huckabee.

[quantass]

9. You really think Hillary can SWEEP the remaining states at such a margin?!?

She hasn't even started yet....someone has to tell her there aren't many left so stop losing to blowouts already. :silly:

[jackson_dem]

13. 10% in PA=a net gain of about 250k popular votes

Right now she is up by 19 but I expect that to close a bit as her post-3/4 bounce fades. It is quite possible, though, that she may actually net over 400k votes in Pennsylvania. Let's look at the math after PA. If she barely wins or loses it then it would take a miracle in FL and MI. If she can erase roughly half of his lead then she has a great chance to hold roughly even in the May states and then surpass him in Florida and Michigan. Keep in mind Florida is almost twice the size of Ohio. She won Ohio by 230,000 votes. With a full Florida turnout she could win by 400-500k votes assuming she wins by roughly 10%. If she wins by 15-20%...

The point of all this is to show the popular vote is not a done deal by any means at this point.

She has lot in blowouts but fortunately for her they tend to be in small states. The national popular vote, minus Fl and MI, stands at 49-47. She has ample opportunity to surpass him with PA, FL, and MI left (not to mention other states that she should do well in like Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, and the territory of Puerto Rico.).

[loveangelc]

18. it's looking increasingly unlikely that there will be a revote in florida.

maybe there will be in michigan.

[VolcanoJen]

11. Obama finishing with under 40% in PA is really, really reaching

Clinton has finished way under 40%, in too many states to count, with only a scant few remaining.

Her popular vote/delegate math is growing more "audacious" by the day. Comparing it to Huckabee? He was excluded by math long before Clinton was. Propping up Huckabee, touring the nation and having the time of his life, as an example as to why she should remain in the race is really just dissolving into reaching and spin at this point, isn't it?

[jackson_dem]

16. That is where Obama is in PA right now and falling fast

What is your basis for thinking the popular vote math is going to be so difficult for her? Assuming PA has the same turnout OH does she would net close to half a million votes there if things remain as they are right now since she leads by 19, almost double her Ohio margin (10 points) and factoring in Pennsylvania being slightly more populous than Ohio. Things can change by the popular vote thing is not assued by any means. Obama may be down to 200k in the popular vote after PA with FL and MI looming...

[VolcanoJen]

22. He dissolved her 23 point lead in Ohio in three weeks.

And all of that, in the face of the Maggie Williams "Kitchen Sink" Strategy, which, as I'm sure you noticed today with Ferraro's comments, has attached to it this thing called "blowback."

Pennsylvania is not Ohio. And we have six weeks to go.

If we were calling races based on polls six weeks before a vote, we'd be talking about Repubican Nominee Rudy Giuliani at this point.

This race has surprised us at every turn, and is likely to continue to do so. But one thing is for certain: Clinton has an uphill battle toward the nomination.

See you in PA.

[scheming daemons]

24. Obama would win Michigan..... here's a good clue as to why...

Every state that borders his home state of Illinois, he has won:

Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri


Michigan's demographics are much more like Illinois than they are Ohio.


Michigan has a much large African American population by percentage, than Ohio.



Michigan is a taylor-made Obama state. At worst, he breaks even there.


Hillary would have to make up 730,000 votes in PA and FL's revote.... and then break even in all the remaining contests. She will lose NC badly - which will net Obama 150,000 to 200,000 back into his column... and the rest of the states should break pretty evenly.


The fact that MI and FL would revote HELPS Obama... because he'll definitively do better than 50-33 in Florida (with Edwards out this time) and 55-0 in Michigan (being on the ballot now).


Hillary's ONLY shot to take the pop vote lead is to keep MI and FL as is.... that ain't going to happen.

[VolcanoJen]

27. See, that's the way I'm looking at it.

And anyone rational would see the Ohio victory as a weird kind of aberration.

It's come to be expected as the norm, here in Ohio, that we'd fuck things up.

For the first time in my life, I harbor a temporary affection for Michigan. (I'm a Buckeye, after all) If 40% of the vote turned out on a day in which they knew their vote would not count, just to vote against Clinton, so many weeks ago and after all that has happened, bodes well for Obama on a Michigan Mulligan. :-)

[rocktivity]

7. Chuck Todd just told Keith Olbermann that with the loss of MS,

Hillary will now have to win at least 64% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests just to break even. 54% may give Hillary a win over Obama, but it won't give her the victory. Besides, the superdelegates wouldn't be impressed with her popular vote lead since it would have taken her so long to get it.

:headbang:
rocknation

[jackson_dem]

14. She isn't going to win the pledged delegate count. The popular vote is the key for her

The sd's would be unlikely to overturn the popular will. If she wins the most votes she deserves the nomination. The same goes for Obama. Her surpassing him late would actually help her because it would be a result of her having the late momentum. The big question about Obama is whether he can take punch. If he winds up losing late that would seem to give the answer: no.

[VolcanoJen]

23. Kos has an interesting point about the popular vote vis-a-vis Caucuses

I know Clinton folks would like to think that caucuses don't count, but...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/11/143228/984/382/473558

[JackORoses]

10. Obama just gained nearly 100,000 in insignificant MS

No matter what she does in PA, she won't catch him when he can pull margins like that in 'small states'.

She is done, dude.

[jackson_dem]

15. MS isn't reflective of all of the remaining states

For instance, it has the largest black population of any state and Obama won the black vote 90-10. Compare that to West Virginia. Winning the black vote 90-10 won't do anything for him there. There are also cultural and economic differences between the states. You can't use MS to extrapolate for the rest of the states. You can't even do that with Ohio and Texas. The only place where Ohio could really be a harbinger is Pennsylvania since they are similar. Ohio doesn't tell us anything about how North Carolina or Montana will vote, though. Obama will win some of the remaining small and medium states and so will Hillary. I don't think either will make a significant net gain in the popular vote from those states. Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina will decide it and Clinton has to be the heavy favorite in two, slightly favored in one. North Carolina is the only one where Obama has a slight edge and unfortunately for Obama NC is the smallest of the four.

[TheDoorbellRang]

20. Hers odds of ever pulling ahead just got a whole lot worse

after tonite. I'll refigure the new odds in the next few days, just for fun, but here is where it stood at yesterday. She (or her supporters) won't be able to claim that the super d's should vote for her because she's won the popular vote unless she wins the rest of the contests -- that's all of them -- by at least 5% in a best case scenario and by 14% in a worst case scenario.

And that was before Mississippi.

[Occam Bandage]

2. Obviously it is because Obama is black, and blacks have it much easier.

[boppers]

4. If only there was something to slow them down...

..or stand in their way....





:sarcasm: (tag sadly needed tonight, this place has gone totally nuts.)

[VolcanoJen]

12. He is SO lucky!

He's, like, The Lottery Candidate.

Expect this to become part of Wolfson's Ugly Sweater Spin in the morning. ;-)

Speaking of which... the Clinton Camp has been uncharacteristically silent today, have they not?

[TheZug]

5. Did you subtract all the caucus, small state, red state, and black votes?

[quantass]

8. That's what i was wondering -- We've got to be fair here damnit!

[happymisery]

17. What's so popular about caucuses?

when I hear popular vote, I think general election. But caucuses have been criticized as giving little opportunity to working men and women to show up at the voting place.

Far from popular to me.

[thevoiceofreason]

19. Add 97,000 to Obama for the Miss. margin of victory.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

21. wait for PA, NC, and ID

[scheming daemons]

25. Obama is going to win NC by double digits and Indiana by a comfortable margin to offset any loss ...

...in PA.

The pop vote from PA/NC/IN will be a wash.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

29. what makes you think that Obama could win NC?

[cooolandrew]

26. Well sadly not everyonelikes math so given this we have to deny reality and keep going. As long as

Obama keeps on McCain he must not lose sight of that. Not that I like denying reality btw, but what can we do. IDoing the figures could so end this quicker.

[amborin]

28. Hillary will SWEEP Penn, and win Fla