How can Hillary win the popular vote?

[loveangelc]

Even if you include MI and FL, Obama has the lead. If there is a re-do in FL, and she wins by the same margin, it's likely he'd still be ahead, and if there's a redo in MI, he will go up more since none of the votes included in a MI count go to Obama at all. IMO it's looking less likely that there will be a re-vote in FL if there is so much infighting, and they have to get this done soon if there is going to be a revote. But if there is, I don't know how much it would change anything...or am I missing something? Yes, she could go up with Pennsylvania, but I think that could be undone with Indiana and North Carolina. So how likely is it really that she wins the popular vote?

[Drunken Irishman]

1. It's likely she won't, unless she wins by a huge margin in PA.

[anonymous171]

2. Thus the race-baiting.

[pampango]

14. Which not only helps her in PA (given its demographics), but may be effective on the superdelegates

by convincing enough of them that a Black cannot win the GE, so they should nominate her.

[TheWebHead]

3. it's possible

if she wins by 20-25 in PA and there is a huge turnout, then add the follow-on states, esp. if there is a primary redo in FL. I'm not sure HRC anticipated the turnout in MS though and losing another near 100k in the popular, which is the most exciting thing about last night.

[ingac70]

4. Possible, but not likely. n/t

[Sanctified]

5. loveangelc, your bulldog is so hot.

I am still trying to convince my wife to let me have a bulldog, we currently have a Jack Russell terrier that is about 17 years old and is totally senile.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. She's behind by about 2.6%.

That's not exactly a crippling deficit. Her http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html">deficit in pledged delegates is the major problem.

Check the http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html">2008 Democratic Popular Vote at RealClearPolitics. The polling averages at RCP also show them pretty close, Obama leading by about 5% now. RCP also shows the effects of including MI and FL, though they are more of a statistical curiosity, and will almost certainly be superceded if their state committees organize new primaries that conform to the DNC's (reasonable) demands.

If she can pull ahead in the popular vote by >5%, there will be a lot of pressure on the superdelegates to follow the popular vote. Even a slight lead over Obama will allow her to make a strong case.

That's what it really comes down to: the delegates and the voters. For all the talk of "the math, the math, the math", it's not a done deal -- Hillary is behind but not out of the race. I think that the "ground game" is going to be the deciding factor, unless the media intensely ramps up its kibitzing one way or the other.

--p!

[johnnydrama]

13. how is it possible

That after 80% of the votes are in, with the 3 biggest states in, she can pull ahead by >5%. That's 100% impossible.

Right now she's plus 300,000 in Michigan. When there's a vote, it'll be no more than +50,000 either way, so that's a loss of 250,000 votes right there.

Then add Washington votes that haven't been counted, and she's almost down as bad as she is in pledged delegates.

[Dogmudgeon]

15. I wasn't counting the MI voters

Second, I wasn't making predictions. I am merely pointing out that it is not realistic to count Hillary out at this time.

Suppose she does better than you expect her to? I don't intend to argue the point, but I make it for one reason -- that it may be difficult for her to achieve, but not impossible. Keep in mind "Dewey Beats Truman".

There are many scenarios under which an HRC victory could happen. Team Obama at DU may want to take a victory lap, but Obama, Axelrod, etc. would be ill-advised to let their effort flag at this point.

--p!

[SunsetDreams]

7. using fuzzy math

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

8. By creating race wars?

thats what she seems to want to do, divide us up.

[TeamJordan23]

9. Also, many of the caucuses do not go into the popular vote. nm

[Johnny__Motown]

10. I don't think she can. Obama should win by a larger margin in NC than Hillary will in PA

[mikekohr]

11. SPONTANEOUS HUMAN COMBUSTION

If Barack bursts into flames and is reduced to a pile of ashes, Hillary has an outside chance to win the Popular vote.

mike kohr

[Gore1FL]

12. Not very likely

But even worse fr her, the popular vote canard basically discounts the caucus states to insignificance.

Super delegates from those states make up 15%, and I doubt they'd care to hear her make such an argument. It isn;t easy to be receptive to the argument "vote for me, because your state doesn't count"