So, Pennsylvania is a closed primary. Central Pennsylvania, the

[hedgehog]

part that has been called Alabama*, is largely Republican. Is it at all possible that that the common wisdom is wrong and that Obama could win this state?






*As in "Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh in the West and Philadelphia in the east with Alabama in the middle".

[geek tragedy]

1. No. Clinton will win Pennsylvania, no doubt whatsoever.

Obama's goal is damage control in PA, not winning the state outright.

[LostinVA]

2. "Penntucky" is what I've always heard it called

I grew up in NJ. Parts of it are scary Freeperlike. Remember, Dover is where the whole big evolution textbook trial was.

I will be quite surprised if Obama wins PA.

[LynneSin]

7. If he turns out Philadelphia, Hilary doesn't stand a chance

Who did the SEIU and USW endorse? Those two groups will give their employees the day off just to help get out the vote. And especially with the SEIU - they will send their people into parts of Philly that most normal volunteers would cringe going near.

EDIT NOTE:
http://www.seiu.org/

Well, that's gonna make it tough for Hilary to win. SEIU is one of the hardest working 'GOTV' unions in Philadelphia. For Rendell's win in 2002 the union helped bring out Presidental election numbers in Philadelphia for what was an offyear election primary. Unfortunately Rendell and the SEIU are not supporting the same person

[LostinVA]

19. Having grown up a stone's throw from Philly, I have to disagree with my Sissie this once

[LynneSin]

21. Yeah but whens the last time you worked an election in Philly?

I've done all the presidential and midterms in Philly since 1992.

Everytime we meet at the SEIU union office over in Spring Garden. Those people amaze me at how they will get out the vote.

[tishaLA]

23. I think it's going to be Lower Marion, Bryn Mawr

and similar places that make the difference. Hillary might run very strongly there because of the large Jewish population, but it is also a natural Obama demographic too (educated, over $100K, etc). My family, in Center City, says the area is strongly pro-Obama. Rendell's machinery might work most strongly in South and Southwest Philadelphia.

[Frances]

12. I agree that Hillary will probably win PA

If she doesn't win there, she will be in the same kind of trouble that Obama would have been in if he had not won the Southern states and states like Washington and Iowa.

Hillary has to prove that she can keep her base of white blue-collar voters who support her because of economic issues just as Obama had to prove that African Americans, young voters, and wealthy latte drinkers will support him.

The dilemna for the Democratic party is that we need white blue-collar voters, African American voters, young voters of all colors, as well as wealthy latte drinkers to win the general election.

That's why I don't like to see us DUers getting so divided.

[bunnies]

3. With Limpballs telling his sheep to re-register as dems and vote Hillary...

Obama has no chance of winning.

[sabbat hunter]

9. can they do that in PA

the registration deadline may have already passed for PA for people to do that.

[bunnies]

13. The deadline is March 24th. nt

[LynneSin]

4. Well there are democrats in Pennsylvania even the central part

Hillary will appeal towards the more moderate democrats which are also found in the 'T' section the state. If Obama is to win he needs to use the Rendall strategy - get as many fricking people out to vote in Philadelphia so the rest of the state doesn't matter

[scheming daemons]

5. If he gets a massive turnout in Philly, it is possible.....

...

[MADem]

6. Is it a CLOSED primary or a "closed" primary. If they allow INDEPENDENTS to vote, it isn't a

closed primary.

A truly closed primary allows ONLY party members to vote. You know, like the Republicans do--they know how to pick a candidate without outside interference (which says something about the scant pickings they've got, really).

Not all "independents" lean left--there are as many right-leaners as there are left-leaners, and there are mischief-makers in that mix, too.

[I Have A Dream]

11. Independents aren't permitted to vote in PA primaries.

(At least, that was the rule way back when I was an Independent.)

[MADem]

16. If that's still the case, then it really is closed. nt

[scheming daemons]

8. PA Demographics...

SW PA has the same demographics as Ohio.

Central/Northern PA has the same demographics as Montana. (Not Alabama... there are VERY few blacks in the central part of PA).

SE PA has the same demographics as Maryland/DC.



That's the bottom line.

[I Have A Dream]

10. I know Central Pennsylvania really well...

and many of the people are very bigoted. There certainly are exceptions, but the people that I know won't vote for Barack. :(

There is even a fair share of this type of person in the suburbs of Western Pennsylvania.

I can't wait until we as a society are completely past such things. :cry:

[rox63]

14. Kerry won PA in 2004

So I think it's entirely possible that Obama could take PA in the GE. We'll have to wait and see about the primary. But I think that, given the amount of time between now and 4/22, he could narrow the gap and catch up with HRC. And even is she wins the PA primary, she won't net enough delegates to overcome Obama's lead.

[scheming daemons]

15. Kerry had a Pittsburgh connection.... hell, he had a home there (still does)..

Theresa, his wife, is the heir to the Heinz Ketchup fortune.


If Kerry would have won in 2004.... Fox Chapel (Northern Pittsburgh suburb) would have been Kerry's Kennebunkport/Crawford.

[elehhhhna]

17. I thought it was called Pennsyltucky.

[MattNC]

18. It's SIX WEEKS away

Obama has a large deficit to overcome, but it's certainly not impossible to pull out a victory or really close defeat. Six weeks is an eternity.

[JimGinPA]

20. I Live In The Susquehanna Valley (South Central PA)

There are a large number of black people that live in Harrisburg, Lancaster, York and Reading areas. But beyond that, there are also a large number of progessive democrats that will support Obama. A large number of the blue collar workers that she's counting on are repubs anyway, so I think this is going to be a much closer contest than a lot of the pundits are predicting. She may win, but she's not going to have much of a delegate pick up.

[CoffeeCat]

22. Time is definitely on Obama's side...

The more time he has, the more her leads always erode.

Furthermore, if she continues acting like a rabid wolf--making ridiculous attacks
and blunders--then, that will be the gift to Obama that keeps on giving.