AND THEY'RE OFF - The starting line: HRC 55%; BHO 36% - 6 weeks to go

[4_Legs_Good]

I suggest we take yesterday's Survey USA poll as the starting line for the Pennsylvania primary, which puts Hillary up 19 points.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/11/pa-democratic-primary-clinton-55-obama-36/

Can Obama close that gap in 41 days? Can Hillary widen the margin???

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines...

David

[Dawgs]

1. Forget Pennsylvania - IT'S OVER!!!

Time for Hillary to drop out.

[4_Legs_Good]

5. Hey, I agree

but the media won't call it over until Clinton drops out, and that's simply not going to happen until, at least, Obama closes the gap in PA.

So, let's see if he can do it and get us out of this mess a bit early!

David

[cottonseed]

7. Obama up 49 to 41 in NC. So yes, it is over.

There's just nowhere she can gain on him. She'd need to win PA 80/20 to even have a chance:

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/12/north-carolina-obama-49-clinton-41/
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=c7ebbb42-19e7-4e9a-9f43-fc2efdc06f06&q=45558

[caledesi]

10. I agree! NT

[democrattotheend]

40. I disagree

Obama has to win PA or at least narrow that gap, or the superdelegates will start to worry about his ability to carry swing states in the general. He does not have 2025 delegates yet, and the superdelegates who have endorsed him (or her) can change their mind at any point. He has to prove he can compete in a state like Pennsylvania and that he can withstand attacks, as he will inevitably face more of in the next six weeks. I support Obama and I am going to do everything I can to help him carry Pennsylvania, including going to philly every weekend I can between now and April 22. But I am nervous about the trend of late-breakers going for Clinton, and PA is his chance to prove he can appeal to a broad audience and close the deal. It's a tough state for him, and it doesn't help that Clinton has Rendell and most of the state political machinery on her side. He doesn't need to win, but he can't lose by 19 points and still look viable as a general election candidate.

[ender]

47. i don't think that she's got the Ops in philly.

I live in a small suburban boro just outside of philly. this is an extremely liberal town.

months ago, when the nominating petitions were going around, i saw them. most people just sign whatever our state rep put in front of them. there were about 15-20 signatures on the house rep and local election papers.

there were maybe 5 on Hillary's.

I have yet to see a Clinton sign in town. It's all Obama.

[democrattotheend]

49. What town?

I went to high school on the Main Line. Is that where you live?

The Philly suburbs will be key. The demographics favor Obama (rich white liberals), but I went to high school with people from that area, and a lot of my friends from high school and their parents might not vote for him because they don't consider him pro-AIPAC enough. I've started contacting people from high school to see how they are planning to vote...will report back on that.

[Cha]

64. I keep thinking that Obama and his

campaign are going to campaign in Philly, Pittsburgh, and all over with lots of their high profile friends turning out to help them.

I know I would be if I were say..Will Smith or any hometown Philly person who's endorsed Obama and wants to see him win in PA.

[Cali_Democrat]

2. Who cares

Its over

[onehandle]

3. Obama won't win, but I believe he'll narrow the gap.

I'll let the Obama supporters add insulting responses. Their only perceptible talent.

[youknowmenotdlc]

9. Don't you think that statement is a little one sided?

I have been reading these posts for weeks and both sides have shown the tendency to be rude, nasty and downright ridiculous.

Casting blame at only one side reveals a bias towards one side that allows you to ignore the bombs thrown by the other.

[olkaz]

12. Now just hold on.

Hillary's camp taught us to downplay states in which our candidate is projected to not perform well.

Everybody knows it's all about North Carolina! Come on!

[anigbrowl]

39. 3 months ago, nobody imagined he would sweep Iowa

and more importantly, knock Hillary into the #3 spot. The fact that Iowa decided she was a 3rd-rate candidate straight out of the gate was what really damaged her - if she had come a close second to Obama in the first lap, she'd have passed him out long ago, and it would have ended up like MCain v. Huckabee.

Anyhoo, if it goes as far as PA (I wouldn't be surprised if it is called off before that), it'll be interesting, because it's like a 2-person rerun of Iowa. 40 days is a loooong time to campaign in a single state. Obama excels at retail politics and Clinton has her own skills there, plus she and her campaign have several months of experience to draw on so they may not make the same mistakes that they did in Iowa. The folks in PA are going to see more of the candidates up close than people in most other states have been able to do.

[thoughtcrime1984]

46. It looks as if it is a talent of yours! nt

[tabasco]

48. LOL. You decry insulting posters by insulting posters.

Typical.

[skipos]

4. Can Hillary win all remaining states by 25%???

Or does she hope to lose the pledged delegates but still get the nomination some other way???

[SKKY]

65. Indeed, THAT is the real question.

:thumbsup:

[Bullet1987]

6. I thought they were only separated by 6 points in one poll like last week?

[4_Legs_Good]

25. it depends on which poll you watch

I've found (and I think it's pretty well borne out) that Survey USA is most accurate, at least in the final days. They got the 10% right in Ohio, missed Texas by 4 points (but were right on if you include the caucuses!), they got Wisconsin dead on at 17%, so I tend to use them as a "best guess".

Of course all of the polls are iffy, but If I'm going to pick one to follow, these days it's SUSA, and this is their first poll of PA.

It's definitely not Zogby.

Stupid Zogby! Feh!

David

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

8. If She Can Take It By Say >10%, That Would Give Her Huge Momentum.

If she takes it >20%, the whole playing field changes.

[LSK]

11. the delegate #s say no

And any Momentum will be wiped out with the next Primary that Obama wins by 20.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

20. The Delegate #'s Are Only One Part Of The Equation.

[LSK]

23. what are the other parts?

The DNC nominating process has new rules?

:shrug:

[Dawgs]

32. Wrong. That's like saying batting average and RBI's matter as much as runs.

Delegates determine who wins - nothing else counts or matters.

BTW, It's over. Time to move on.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

41. Delegates (Pledged) Only Determine Who Wins When The Magic Number Is Hit.

Neither can hit that magic number. That means other factors then come into play. You might want to brush up on how all of this works.

[cottonseed]

13. She'll need to take it >40% to justify sticking around.

That's the only thing she can do to get real momentum. Either that or she can go to War with NC:

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/12/north-carolina-obama-49-clinton-41/

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

21. That's Not Reality And You Know It.

[cottonseed]

38. It is reality if she plans on winning the delegate count.

If your reality is just closing the gap a bit and orchestrating a takeover of the pledged and super delegates, then you should be comfortable with your numbers.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

42. Again, In The End Of This All, More Might Come Into Play Than Pledge # Alone.

[clevbot]

16. ?

How would it change... How many delegates would she get for a 60/40 win. Remember Obama's lead is 150+ and growing... Don't see how one state can fix that

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

22. Delegates Are Only One Part Of The Equation.

[cemaphonic]

28. Yes, the part that gets you nominated

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

43. And In This Case, That Part Is Not Enough, Since Neither Can Reach The Magic Number

with pledges alone. Therefore, that part cannot get you nominated. Instead, it will require the thoughtfulness of the SD's to decide which side they want to go to, which is most certainly based on more factors than the # of pledges alone. This is political truth. Please learn it.

[LSK]

30. request #2, what are the other parts?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

45. Whichever Parts The SD's Choose To Incorporate In Determining Who Is The Strongest For The GE.

That could be based on the popular vote, states won, poll data, delegates, matchups vs mccain, or whatever other factors they choose. Likely, the popular vote and pledged delegate count would be the two main priorities of course. But any of the above in any combination could ultimately come into play.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. Keep pretending.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

24. This Is Political Reality.

If you choose not to see that, then it is you with your head in the sand.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

34. It's over.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

44. You And I Both Know It Isn't. Until Someone Hits 2024, It Is Still In Play.

You might want it to be over, but your want is not enough to overturn the political reality. In reality, Obama has a quite likely shot of winning for obvious reasons. But there are still some chances for Hillary, and due to that only someone completely ignorant of the process would claim that it is in fact over, when it's not.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

50. Reach for a star!

Denial

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

51. You Can Cast Your Childish Insults As Much As Ya Want. My Post Is Still Factual And Yours Is False.

No mindless return reply with some silly picture can chance that reality. But be my guest and continue looking like someone ignorant to the process if ya want. No biggie to me! :hi:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

53. REACH FOR A STAR!

Denial

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

55. Is That Obama's New Campaign Slogan?

Ya know, all that feel good but ain't gonna matter much in real life mumbo jumbo?

:rofl:

[Spider Jerusalem]

18. If she wins more than ten percent...

that's like pitching a shutout in game five of a World Series where the other team has already won four straight.

[Independent-Voter]

54. State won by 60% or more during the primaries, or Math for Dumbasses (take your pick)

Bottom line - Klinton ain't going to win by 20% in PA.


States & elections won with 60% or more of the vote:
Barack Obama: 15 States + DC + VI
* Virgin Islands (89.9%)
* Idaho (79%)
* Hawaii (76%)
* Alaska (75%)
* District of Columbia (75%)
* Kansas (74%)
* Washington (68%)
* Nebraska (68%)
* Minnesota (67%)
* Colorado (67%)
* Georgia (67%)
* Illinois (65%)
* Virginia (64%)
* Maryland (62%)
* North Dakota (61%)
* Wyoming (61%)
* Mississippi (61%)

Hillary Clinton: 1 State
* Arkansas (70%)

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

56. I Didn't Say She Would.

Hence the 'IF'.

Maybe you need to learn how to read.

[Independent-Voter]

57. IF my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. That's one hell of an IF you've got there.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

58. Why Yes. As It Stands Right Now, 1% Away Is Just, Like, Ya Know, INCONCEIVABLE And Stuff!!!

God you look silly.

[zulchzulu]

14. It will be tied in two weeks...bookmark this

Look for Obama to go past her in about three weeks. He will soundly defeat her six weeks from now.

Hillary has nothing now except to try to destroy Obama for her own ambitions in 2012. You can see the shift in super delegates and once that starts happening more in the mainstream, it is over for the Clintons.

I hope Hillary Clinton and her surrogates continue to take the low road. The political science classes in the future looking at how this campaign imploded will enjoy the desperate antics in the Final Act.

[frazzled]

15. Well, gosh, if the whole race is dependent on Pennsylvania ...

then we shouldn't have had all these other primaries, and we should cancel all the ones that follow. Coulda saved us a lot of time. We should just have contests in the "important" states.

Sorry, but we still have to count up pledged delegates, popular vote, and superdelegates. I know the Clinton campaign would like you to believe that with Pennsylvania, all the superdelegates will move to her side, but that is not an assured scenario at all.

[4_Legs_Good]

35. It's not all about Pennsylvania!

It's just that PA is the next state to vote with a long, long wait, so the race should be interesting. On the ground campaigning by just 2 candidates for a long period of time.

It actually might be a good barometer for the general - A potential swing state with 2 candidates campaigning.

It's just exciting is all

David

[jamesinca]

19. Electoral vote displays all the polls nicely

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Data/Polls.html

Scroll down to the PA ones to see who took the poll, date taken on, and the results.

The main page is interesting to read also
http://www.electoral-vote.com

[4_Legs_Good]

27. electoral-vote.com is the first site I check every morning

They track things and display them beautifully.

Highly recommended (though they projected 2004 wrong :( - too much Zogby weighting I'm sure!)

David

[skooooo]

36. What's up with the Indiana poll?

Feb 18 -

Clinton 25%
Obama 40%

Where's the other 35%???

[4_Legs_Good]

37. On vacation?

It's probably cold up there.

Not a very telling poll, you're right.

David

[backscatter712]

26. Even with a Pennsylvania blowout, she cannot win.

And judging by Obama's repeated performances, he'll either win Pennsylvania or lose by a small margin, like in Ohio.

And the best case scenario for Hillary isn't enough to save her from defeat.

[4_Legs_Good]

29. I don't disagree...

but this is just another race to watch, which is fun when we've got 6 longs weeks to wait. The slowing pace of the primaries is leaving me a bit bored.

David

[book_worm]

31. PA is important but so are all the remaining states and that's why Obama is leading overall

because he doesn't pick and choose his targets but competes everywhere.

[4_Legs_Good]

33. Amen!

But PA is the next one, and then nothing more for 2-3 more weeks!

Such a long wait...

David

[TheZug]

52. There's NO WAY he can even come close in PA!!!!!!

Keep building those expectations, Clinton people.

[jazzjunkysue]

59. David: Can you make this a weekly update thing? Thanks.n/t.

[4_Legs_Good]

62. Sure thing

I'll post every time SUSA has a new poll. Should be fun!

David

[andym]

60. Auto race or horse race

Whether auto race, horse race, or primary election race, the media are certainly excited. "Place your bets ladies and gentlemen."

[NMMatt]

61. There will be more delegates up for grab in IN and NC

Than in PA. Having said that, I'm confident that we will close the margin in PA. If we can pull an upset, it will secure the nomination on April 22. It's win-win. Obama has nothing to lose. He either makes back (and then some) whatever delegates Clinton secures a few weeks later, or he finishes her off for good.

[4_Legs_Good]

63. The only negatives are really, the mud slinging, and the fact that I'd rather the $ be spent

fighting McCain.

Hopefully he can continue to use the protracted battle in a positive way - and by positive, I mean negative towards McCain...

David

[Zynx]

66. Indiana will be a Hillary state.

North Carolina is an open question.