I hate to say it - it's gonna be a tough win for Hilary in Pennsylvania

[LynneSin]

First, it's a closed election (shouldn't they all be) so she doesn't have the benefit of any crossover republicans.

Second - she does not have the support of the SEIU union
http://www.seiu.org/

I've worked about a dozen campaigns in Philadelphia and the reason that PA goes democrat anymore is this union. They will give their people the day off if they want to go out and help get out the vote. And their union HQ is regularly used for organizing volunteer drives on election day.

But the thing I've seen with the SEIU is that this group can bring out general election numbers even on a primary day (ie 2002 Rendell vs. Casey). And the SEIU will willingly send their people into neighborhoods of Philadelphia where many general volunteers feel unsafe to go to. You get 40-50% turnout in Philadelphia, Hilary doesn't stand a chance.

This thread is NOT an endorsement for Obama - I'm STILL supporting Joe Biden

[scheming daemons]

1. No... she has several built-in advantages.... Ed Rendell being the biggest....

It's an extremely uphill climb for Obama.


If he manages to lose by single digits, that's a HUGE victory for him.

[Metric System]

2. You're joking right? Close primaries tend to favor Hillary. Or are you forgetting about Obama's

Obamacans?

[blm]

4. Are you forgetting the difference between changeRepublicans and RushRepublicans?

RushRepublicans vote for the Dem Rush wants them to vote for to guarantee a GOP win in Nov.

Change Republicans are sick of how the GOP has acted and really want to vote FOR a Dem in November.

[samdogmom]

7. Ummmm! Once McCain became the sure thing for the Republicans

those voters became free to wreak havoc on the Democratic side. Given the chance, Limbaugh's listener's are following their master's command and voting for Hillary. They want an easy win in November when it's McCain vs. Clinton (gag!).

[goldcanyonaz]

8. Umm, they've been voting for Obama since Iowa.

But, thems those good ole Republicans, you know the ones, them Reagan Democrats whose comin home to the party.

Uh huh.

[samdogmom]

12. No--you've got it wrong!

Why would Republicans waste a CAUCUS vote in Iowa--things were still up for grabs there!

Now--they're just messing with the system where they can--face it. The Republicans want to run against Hillary. SHE WILL BRING OUT THE BASE!!!!!
(And it's not our Democratic base, unfortunately!)

[Pirate Smile]

9. There has been an amazing change in the Republican vote since the Republican

nominee has been chosen.

In Mississippi:

[FrenchieCat]

19. But can you provide solid evidence?

Yes we can! :rofl:

[ExtraGriz]

14. dont be such a realist

when rethugs vote for obama, they're obamacans (sweet and cuddly, you just gotta hug 'em), when they vote for hillary, they only skew the voting process.......

[Pirate Smile]

3. I believe Rush and his minions are aware of the registration deadline and

are trying to get Republicans to switch their registration in time so they can vote for Clinton.

[goldcanyonaz]

5. Wow, you sure gots them Obama talking points down pat for a "Biden" supporter.

She wins when Democrats vote.

[Buzz Clik]

6. Interesting prediction. The current polls don't support your view, but I see your point.

[Lucinda]

10. The Reps voted for Hillary in Miss...they're usually Obama's voters

She'll do fine in PA.

[bigbrother05]

11. Penn. April 22

Tax day April 15th

[thesidler2]

13. well, she is up by 20 points in the latest poll

[LiveLiberally]

15. Beyond the polls, this is Hillary's state to lose based on the demographics....

25% of the population is over 55 years of age, 16% is over 65. Both stats are significantly over the national average, and Clinton has pretty handily won this demographic in all but a handful of states (Wisconsin being one of them I believe) Obama could make up for some of this with strong turnout by those 18-29 and African Americans, but if Clinton continues to garner the majority of white women, it will not be anywhere near enough even with SEIU support. Nothing is certain at this point, but I agree with other posts that Obama would have a reason to celebrate if he could reduce her margin of victory to single digits.

[grantcart]

16. Just for your info Calilfornia has an open primary so independents can join

and is always a strong democrat state

moreover ever since the Republicans closed their primary their numbers have declined steadily ever year.

The practical reality is that if people vote with the democrats in a primary they are a lot more likely to vote with the party

in the general.

[Connie_Corleone]

17. Hillary is expected to win big.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. Good lord... Hillary would PAY to have it be a closed primary