7.5% of Hillary's votes in Mississippi were Republican

[JMDEM]

From http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23590151/

"Blacks, who also supported Obama in overwhelming numbers in earlier primaries, accounted for roughly half the ballots cast in Mississippi, according to interviews with voters leaving polling places. About one in six Democratic primary voters were independents, and Clinton and Obama split their support. Another 10 percent of voters were Republican, and they preferred Clinton by a margin of 3-1."

10% * 3/4 = 7.5%.

Now, I know the Clinton supporters will claim this is valid crossover, but I strongly doubt it. I think it is mostly the Limbaugh sabotage going on.

If crossover wasn't allowed in Mississippi, then Obama would have won by a margin of roughly 31% rather than 25%, and would have picked up a couple extra delegates (at least).

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. These clowns will be eating crow come November

Let them have their fun now, because they'll be bawling their eyes out Nov. 5th.

[Carrieyazel]

32. I doubt it. This mess on the Democratic side will pave the way for McLame.

[rinsd]

2. Obama didn't mind crossovers when he was winning them.

And if you think republican crossover voting for Obama was done with pure hearts, I have a bridge to sell you.

There is a simple solution to this.

Closed primaries only, allowing only decline to state voters if a party so chooses to allow them.

[Benhurst]

4. Open primaries are a joke. If someone is interested in becomming a Democrat,

I have a suggestion: register as one. The process is easy and painless to all, other than Republicans up to mischief.

If a person isn't willing to change registration, guess what? They aren't Democrats, and they have no business voting in our primaries.

[democrattotheend]

8. I think we should let independents vote in our primaries, but not Republicans

Independents are swing voters and it makes sense to let them participate in our primaries, since it helps to gauge electability by seeing who can draw more independent support. But we ought to close our primaries to registered Republicans, or at least require them to actually change their registration to Democrat at the polls. That alone would deter crossovers from the most partisan Republicans who want to vote strategically.

[JerseygirlCT]

26. You know, I don't think even that's right

We're picking the Democratic party's candidate. Why should someone who doesn't want to join the Democratic party get a say in our candidate? That's like suggesting that Canadians vote for the US president. (Now, it might be a good idea, and we might get a better outcome, lol, but that's beside the point!)

[cali]

18. There isn't any party registration in Vermont

and I'll be damned if outsiders come mucking around in my state which runs some of the cleanest elections in the country.

[JerseygirlCT]

25. Whoever it benefits, I don't like them, either

I agree: if you want to help choose a party's candidate, join the party. Pretty simple.

If you don't want to join, then why should you have any say?

[JMDEM]

5. Where did Obama win REPUBLICAN crossovers?

Independents, sure. But Republicans? Provide the proof.

[rinsd]

9. States Obama won GOP crossover voting according to CNN exit polls; MO, LA, VA, & TX

CNN only gives breakdown for each candidate when the percentage of Republicans is 5% or greater and even then they did not always determine a winner so we have limited data. But with that at minimum 5% we can see where Obama has built his delegate lead to this point.

For instance for Feb 5th elections we only have Alabama & Missuori

In AL, Hillary beat Obama 52 to 45 in Republican votes - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#ALDEM

In MO, Obama won GOP votes 75 to 21 - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MODEM

Obama also won Republicans (usually in the same 3 to 1 fashion Hillary just did) in:

LA - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#LADEM

VA - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#VADEM

They tied the GOP vote in OH - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM

Obama won the GOP vote in TX 53 to 46 - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM

Then we have MS which Hillary won by her 3 to 1 margin - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MSDEM

For those keeping score at home when the data is available to determine a winner, Hillary has won 2 matches involving GOP crossover votes one of them handily enough for her to get extra delegates.

Obama has won the crossover vote 4 times. 3 times by a 3 to 1 margin. Once by a slim margin.

[TexasLady]

23. where do those links show anything about actual crossovers?

[rinsd]

35. How do you think the OP is tallying crossover votes? Its from exit polls.

It not like your name and party affiliation are attached to each ballot.

If you are having trouble finding the info, try flipping thru the pages.

The party affiliation breakdown (Dem, Rep, Independent)is on page 3 for most.

[JMDEM]

27. Good reply. Thanks for using facts instead of insults. nt

[Liquorice]

15. Exactly. Why are Obama supporters complaining about republican

crossover votes now? They loved it when those repub votes were going to Obama.

[cali]

19. You folks have been beefing and whining about Repugs voting

for Obama for months. Now it's just fine because repugs are voting for hilly. At least we know that some of Obama's crossover vote is genuine and not merely mucking around in the dem primaries.

[BlueManDude]

24. GOPers were not voting for Obama in significant numbers

there's a difference between GOPers and Indies. Let's face it neither candidate is going to get any GOP support in November.

It's pretty clear they want to run against HRC.

[JackORoses]

29. Obama's crossover are disaffected Repubs who will actually vote for him in the GE

Hillary's are the Limbaugh Army.

Did this reality escape your Political Genius?

[bunnies]

3. 24% not 7.5%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5039415

[Drachasor]

14. I got 20%....hmmm -- ahhh!

He has it as 10% republicans when it was 12%

[4_Legs_Good]

6. PLEASE let them be legitimate crossovers!

I'm terrified at the thought that Limbaugh really carries that much weight.

Please, no no no.

Real Republicans deciding they like Clinton or just hate McCain that much. Either are okay, but not 7.5% of voters doing whatever Rush told them to.

Please no.

David

[TexasLady]

16. trust me he does

and it wasn't just him, it was LOTS of rightwing pukerags on the radio encouraging voters to crossover, including my own local yokel.

[FrenchieCat]

7. Yep.....24%

So in essence that took away from Obama's calculation of the White vote by skewing it toward Hillary. So, increase his legitimate white vote by 24% means he actually got 50% of the bonafide Democratic/Independent White vote in Mississippi.

Here are the facts:

[andym]

11. Impressive turnout of people who disliked the candidate for whom they voted.

Impressive turnout of people who disliked the candidate for whom they voted.

Can this be ascribed to talk radio? + the internet?
It would be a strong example of using interactive media to influence elections.

[nolabels]

12. 8 to 10% of people in general are dirty pool players

My estimation is also that 4 or 5 % will break the law (not including auto traffic and tax fudging) if they KNOW they can get away with it and about 1% out and out criminals. To think a chunk of that 8 to 10% is not clogging up D.U. would be quite ignorant.

To the extent they vote in the G.E. won't really matter because their twisted logic is going to be drown out this time. I wouldn't know who is what but as a general rule i expect things to turn out this way which they mostly do.

[itcfish]

10. You Mean Like The Republican

votes St. Obama got in Texas? LOL

[TexasLady]

20. I heard him and others tell their listeners to vote for Clinton

so did our local radio asshole. What voters actually did, who knows. One lady from Collin county was a precinct captain and said the number of crossover votes were 'in the hundreds'.

[Drachasor]

13. That's not quite correct, it's 10%*75%/37% = 20% --Edit it is 24% see below

7.5% is just the number of overall voters that were republicans voting for her. You need to divide by her percent of the voter to get the number of republican supports she had

Edit: 12% of the voters were republicans and 12%*75%/37% = 24%

[Drachasor]

17. Interestingly, about 13.6% of the people that voted for her would be unhappy if she was nominated

I made a thread that had this figure yesterday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5033343&mesg_id=5033343

[mimitabby]

21. Clinton is more conservative

why is this such a surprise? maybe the Limpbaughs were out there, but a lot of republicans are more conservative, and for that reason would lean towards Clinton!

[Drachasor]

22. How does that justify the 13.6% that would be unhappy if she won, neutral or happy if Obama won...

but voted for her anyway?

[itcfish]

28. Yep

Republicans are controlling our primaries. They will never vote for obama or hillary in the General elections.

[cbayer]

30. OK, it's probably me, but the math just isn't making sense.

12% of those who voted for a democratic candidate identified themselves as republican.

75% of those republicans voted for Clinton.

Let's say there were 100 total voters.

12 of them were republican.

9 of those twelve voted for Clinton.

Doesn't that mean that 9% of her total votes were republicans, not 24%.

Please help me out here.

[NobleCynic]

31. That would mean that 9% of the total votes

were Republicans for Clinton. As Clinton only got 37% of the vote, that would mean that of her 37%, 9% were Republicans.

9% / 37% = 24%

Where you are confused is that of those 100 voters in your example, only 37 voted for Clinton. Not the full 100.

Does that follow better?

[cbayer]

33. Yes, I get it now.

I was really confused.

Too much DU'ing has turned my brain into mush.

[NobleCynic]

34. Straying into GD can do that

Especially during primary season. No worries, though.