Who Will Win A Majority Of Super Delegates At The Convention & Why?

[KittyWampus]

The Clintons insist on dragging this on to the Convention. Even though they are far behind in pledged delegates with no chance of catching up, they believe a majority of Super Delegates will line up behind Hillary.

So, I thought we should have a poll and see who thinks which candidate will actually GET that majority of super delegates. And why.

Top Clinton Fundraisers were given a presentation today by senior members of HIllary's campaign. They essentially admit not being able to get a majority of pledged delegates but have "three data points" they think super delegates will use to make their decision.

Super Delegates should consider (according to Hillary):

*Pledged Delegate count
*Popular Vote
*Specific States won by each candidate

What Hillary didn't mention is Super Delegates will also consider:

**Coattails- the negative effect Hillary would have down ticket on other Democrats running for office versus the positive effect Obama would have
**Party Infrastructure-the extent Hillary ignored/insulted Democrats in many states versus Obama who devoted time & resources to building infrastructure in all 50 states
**Ability to Generate Enthusiasm/Money- Clinton pales in comparison to Obama
**Ability to Bring Independents/Moderate Repbulicans over to the Democrats- Obama has proven he can do this without compromising Democratic principles.

[XemaSab]

1. I'm guessing that most of the elected superdelegates either know the Clintons personally

or know them through the grapevine.

I'm sure there's a sense of duty there for a lot of them, and there's no doubt that the Clintons have done a lot for many of them.

However, I think the fact that they haven't ALL endorsed Clinton speaks volumes.

Take Al Gore for example. He worked with Clinton every day for 8 years. Maybe Gore would be somewhere today without Clinton, but it's unlikely.

Why is Gore hesitant to endorse Clinton?

What does Gore know that makes him hold back?

And you can ask yourself the same question about Richardson, Pelosi, Carter, and about 250 other folks.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Clinton will say....I win the White Vote, in "some" states...and point to Mississippi!

However, this won't be part of the story she tells:

Republicans tilted the White Vote to Hillary Clinton by an astonishing 24%.....meaning that Obama's percentage in the MS White Dem vote was under-reported by 24%....which would have made Obama's White Dem vote count approximately 45% and hers approx 50% in MISSISSIPPI!

Total Votes in the Democratic primary in MS = 407,217
Total Republican voting in that number = 13% = 52,938
Total voting for Hillary of the 13% = 75%
Total Republicans voting for Hillary = 37,056
Total Hillary vote count = 155,686
Total Republican percentage made up Hillary's vote count = 23.8% which rounds to 24%
Supporting figures sources:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MS
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225989

[KittyWampus]

5. Obama's campaign is NOT going to point out Hillary got GOP'ers trying to screw the Dem primary

they would surely make their case they'd get indies and moderates though.

[baldguy]

3. Hillary will bribe them, cajole them & threaten them.

But Barack will win them over.

[hogwyld]

4. Clinton is the modern day Lazarus

Jason, Michael, Freddy Krueger, all rolled into one. You just can't kill the undead.

[tabatha]

7. I think Pelosi's statement was very telling.

About the VP slot.
The SDs have noted Clinton's statement on McCain being more prepared than Obama.
It is not good to stab another Democrat in the back while boosting a Republican.
She lost it on that.

[Johnny__Motown]

6. Obama won't need as many. he should get enough easily

[jlake]

8. Hillary. She will lead in many ways and the SDs won't fall for Obama's

snake oil shady politician scam.

[Danger Mouse]

9. Obama will win. Hillary really hurt herself with the McCain comment.

When NANCY PELOSI smacks you down, that should tell you your campaign is in trouble.

[KittyWampus]

10. maybe hillary supporters don't really believe she will get super delegates?

[KittyWampus]

11. kick

[jackson_dem]

12. The candidate with the most popular votes will win the most sd's

As should be.

[featherman]

13. Once again... SD's are not a bloc and do not vote in a bloc

They are simply elected DEMS (Sen, Rep, Gov, etc) and party officials from their own states. They will split according to their affinity groups, local politics, political judgment about who is the strongest candidate, etc. it will be an about even split with a likely edge to Obama. Combined with his lead in PD's, Obama will win on the first ballot. This is dead certain barring a cataclysm to his campaign.