Bush Up 50-44 In New Gallup Poll, 48-43 In New Washington Post Poll

[TheStateChief]

http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Poll%3A+Bush+support+holds+despite+Iraq%2C+9%2F11+hearings&expire=&urlID=9970010&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fpoliticselections%2Fnation%2Fpolls%2F2004-04-19-gallup-poll_x.htm&partnerID=1660

Kerry in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll despite two weeks dominated by a deteriorating security situation in Iraq and criticism of his administration's handling of the terrorism threat before the Sept. 11 attacks.

The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, shows Bush ahead 50% to 44% among likely voters, a bit wider than the 4-point lead he held in early April. The shift, within the margin of error of +/-4 percentage points in the sample of likely voters, wasn't statistically significant.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/US/iraq_election_poll_040419.html

Mounting casualties have created dour public assessments of the war in Iraq, with nearly six in 10 Americans saying the United States has gotten bogged down there. Yet most remain committed to seeing it through, and despite his recent difficulties President Bush is hanging tough, with his ratings steady — or even improved.

And these poll results from ABC/Washington Post weren't exactly the best trends I've seen lately:

Terrorism Now: Bush +21, March: Bush +21
Economy Now: Even, March: Kerry +12
Iraq Now: Bush +11, March: Kerry +1
Health ins. Now: Kerry +6, March: Kerry +20
Education Now: Bush +3, March: Kerry +12
Soc. Sec. Now: Kerry +4, March: Kerry +16
Deficit Now: Kerry +1, March: Kerry +15
Taxes Now: Bush +6, March: Kerry +8
Jobs Now: Kerry +2, March: Kerry +8
Rx drugs Now: Kerry +3, March: Kerry +9
Same-sex marriage Now: Bush +16, March: Bush +1

[NMDemDist2]

1. dont read the polls

Kerry hasn't even started yet--- I'll worry about polls in Sept not April

who cares now?

[apnu]

7. you're right AZ...

... polls right now are sketchy at best, considering that both Bush and Kerry have fluttered around the 50% mark. They are going to flex and swap around, and its to early to start looking for trends.

The GE hasn't started yet, sweat the polls in Sept.

[soleft]

2. This is a hiccup because Bush didn't pee his pants during the press conf

[still_one]

4. perhaps he didn't pee his pants

but he couldn't even complete a sentence during the press conference

[Nicholas_J]

17. Actually

Whenever the Europeans do something that is anti American, the pres gets a boost. The fact that the Spanish are pulling out is creating a lets circle the wagons mentality. When it becomes apparent that Al Sadr and his followers are not "terrorists" which is the word republicans are now using to desribe them, but the actual representatives of the majority of the Iraqi people, and that this war is rapidly becoming a war of conquest and colonization, Kerry will be able to capitalize on that. I would say the death threshold for the American people will be about 1500 to 2000, and once it hit that point, things are going to be looking bad for Bush.

I look to the European press as a barometer to the political situation in the U.S. The BBC says that the President is in SERIOUS trouble in the U.S., and that this trouble will become seriosuly obvious after June 30th, as the U.S. tries to impose another government on Iraq. It is completely obbious that the Iraqis want an Islamic Democratic Republic, something like the pro-Islamic Parties in Turkey want, which is something very different than the situation in Iran or Algeria. A BBC analysis of the turnover of sovereignty is that right now there is NO one who is acceptable to the three power groups in Iraq to turn power over to, and that the Ayatollah Sistani is the only person who actually knows what is going on in Iraq, and that the Iraqi people have a totally differnt idea of government than Bush. Once that American Embassy goes up it is going to have a big sign on it that says "kick me", and no amount of security will be enough.

Expect the troop rotatiosn to be held over again in July.

[soleft]

22. That's true, thanks for the insight!

[still_one]

3. Zogby poll contridicts those polls

and Zogby has historically been far more accurate than Gallup, or any others

I also find it unbelievable with all the news that has come out as you have stated that the administration would suddenly leap ahead.

Either the people in this country are complete idiots, or the people taking the polls are complete idiots, or both

[democrat in Tallahassee]

9. I'm going to have to move to Canada

How can this blithering criminal idiot still be high in the polls?

Niel Postman was right in his book "Amusing Ourselves to Death" We are obsessed with FEAR FACTOR and the APPRENTICE while corporate theives are stealingour future.

[montanacowboy]

5. One of the reasons is that Kerry

is standing shoulder to shoulder with * on the war, and with him on the Israeli thing - the whole world condemed the assasination of the hamas leaders, every country EXCEPT the US, and Kerry is agreeing with it. It's time to cut the 51st state loose - I am sick and tired of the Lukid party running this country.

If he cannot differentiate himself here, he will, he WILL lose the base - he IS losing me.

I knew that once Dean was out of the picture Kerry would return to his middle of the road DLC philosophy and we are right back to square one folks - this guy has got to get a grip and show some backbone.

[disenfranchised]

10. When you say he is losing you

does that mean he is losing your vote?

[emulatorloo]

13. Look at the numbers above

re war terra etc the numbers are all pro bush
re domestic issues the numbers are all pro kerry

the overall numbers probably reflect the fact that iraq is on all these people's mind.

kerry has to be 'strong on defense' in this campaign or he is screwed.

[TheStateChief]

15. They are pro-Kerry, but they're trending Bush

That was the only really alarming thing I found in these polls (besides, perhaps, the numbers that show Americans pessimistic about the war in Iraq and the policies we're employing yet they still support Bush to a great extent over Kerry).

Bush has remained even or gained in all the categories since last month - Kerry hasn't gained in any of them (remember, the following numbers represent the amount that the candidates have gained or lost on that particular issue in the past month):

Terrorism: Even
Economy: Bush +12
Iraq: Bush +12
Health ins.: Bush +14
Education: Bush +15
Soc. Sec.: Bush +12
Deficit: Bush +14
Taxes: Bush +14
Jobs: Bush +6
Rx drugs:Bush +6
Same-sex marriage: Bush +15

After the Clarke book and Woodward book and the 9-11 hearings and the missteps in Iraq I would have thought things would be trending in the other direction.

[onehandle]

6. How many times are people going to post these two polls?

With glee.

[TheStateChief]

8. I didn't see them posted

If they were already posted then lock the thread. I don't think you should lock the thread just because they show Kerry behind. I'm not of the school of thought that it is best to ignore bad news - it's best to engage it and turn it around. All my regular caveats to national polls in April apply, but the trends in the ABC poll in particular should be alarming everyone here. Instead people seem to think it makes more sense to just say polls that show Bush ahead are bad and polls that show Kerry ahead are good. I am committed to Kerry, but the slide in the issue numbers shouldn't just be dismissed.

[Ridley Park 704]

11. Goebbels would be proud!

The whore media propaganda seems to be working.

Even so, Kerry should get a bump when he picks his vice president and in convention time.

Or maybe Americans like the looting of the treasury, the hemorrhaging of jobs, the deficit, and the crummy "sell pencils and apples" economy.

Then with Bush winning another four years, and the GOP brownshirts and Bush Youth loose in the land, I do hope those voters will be satisfied.

[emulatorloo]

14. they are worried about the war, and bush told them Kerry is

'weak on defense.'

[West Coast Democrat]

12. The ABC/WP Poll is of randomly selected adults....

not even likely voters, registered voters, or an even cross-section of the political spectrum.

[zbdent]

16. Uh, isn't Kerry just coming off of being off the campaign trail

for a few weeks?

[TheFarseer]

18. Why is Kerry losing ground on things like

the deficit, same sex marriage and social security? What has changed between march and now with that? weird poll if you ask me.

[guajira]

19. Kerry Needs a New Speech-Writer

What speeches I've heard are about as exciting as watching paint dry! Too bad Kucinich can't write kerry's speeches!

What are the issues we Dems have to persuade anyone to vote Democrat? B* has one scandal after another, and still has high poll numbers. Appears that we are not offering a good alternative(??).

[TheFarseer]

20. Appears that we are not offering a good alternative(??).

That's what I think. That's why I was screaming John Edwards at the top of my lungs. Kerry is the democratic equivalent of Bob Dole in so many ways and I think he'll win about as many electoral votes as Dole did. I REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'm not sure you'll be able to recognize this country after 4 more years of Bush

[guajira]

21. Actually I Think Kerry Should be Turned Loose from his Handlers

I can picture Kerry roaring up to a rally on a Harley, showing emotion in his speeches, using his dry sense of humor I have heard on occasion, and reaming B* a new one for all his lies and failure!

Oh well, I can dream can't I?

[moondust]

23. Fear of the unknown.

Rove Media & Co. will continue to use distortion and half-truths to try to keep the public unfamiliar with Kerry and confused. Fear alone will drive many into the false security of the familiar.