ok enough with the Polls already-- here's some history for you

[NMDemDist2]

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2003%20Presidential%20Polls%20Oct%2003.htm

snip-
"Further evidence that early numbers have little bearing on the eventual outcome of a Presidential race can be seen in the 1988 race between George Bush and Mike Dukakis. While Bush led Dukakis by 12 points (52% to 40%) in April of 1988, by July Bush was trailing 37% to 54%, a swing of 29 points. By November the race had swung back 29 points and Bush eventually won by 8 points.



The 1992 race was no different as all three candidates led the field at one point between April and November. In fact, in May of 1992, Ross Perot actually led with 39%, while Bush came in at 31% and Clinton had just 25%. A month earlier, Bush was sitting at 44%, while Clinton had 25% and Perot 24%. However, by July Clinton had pulled ahead and remained there until the end."


EDit--- 600 posts WOOHOO :bounce:

[sallyseven]

1. Kerry is going to win

The scandal around bush will become well known and he will be defeated. Look at him he looks like hell. By scandal I mean that the whole system he is trying to put in place is failing. Slowly but surely. Not so slow that Kerry won't best him. I look forward to having Kerry as president because I trust him. Bush is either on medication or is back on drugs. Cheney is fully in charge and bush is just a poor mouthpiece. Some American people are the ones that can be fooled all of the time. Those are the ones the poll people are asking questions of.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. One difference: in this polarized era a huge swing is impossible

Regardless of any poll, Bush and Kerry each have a reliable base in the low 40s, as would virtually any national nominee of either party. The undecided center has shrunk to a dozen percent or so.

My theory: in 2004 there is a sliding popular vote bracket encompassing a 4 point Kerry victory to a 2 point Bush triumph. That 6 point possibility will move like a slide rule based on candidate performance, along with the economy and Iraq. Where it stops on election day, almost random chance, will determine the outcome.

Normally the margin for error would favor the incumbent, but as an ineffective leader with 3+ years of lousy economy and a controversial war, that critical point or two slips to Kerry based on the "wrong direction" consensus.

One caution: given the current realities of the electoral college, a popular vote tie will almost certainly re-elect Bush. Kerry probably needs a 1 point national margin, or very close to that, to assure congressional affirmation.

[salonghorn70]

3. The Debates

They will be decisive. The sliding group will wait until the Debates to size up Kerry.