The superdelegate math for Hillary

[ButterflyBlood]

Let's look at what it is, using CNN's handy delegate calculator: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

What does it take for her to top 2024? Well first let's give Hillary very favorable numbers from here on. A 20 delegate win in Pennsylvania. A 3:1 win Guam. A 41-31 win in Indiana. A slight victory in North Carolina, where Obama has a sizable lead. A 19-9 victory in West Virginia and a 32-19 one in Kentucky. We'll give her a tie in Oregon, not the most favorable state for her, and in Montana the same. Hell we'll even let her win South Dakota and take it 8-7. And we'll assume an almost 2:1 landslide in Puerto Rico, 36-19.

(Please note, this is basically Hillary winning every single primary from here on.)

So how many superdelegates does she need to hit 2024? Only 225. 64% of the total remaining.

But that's not just it. Not all of those 351 remaining superdelegates have been chosen yet. 76 are "add-ons" elected by either the state Democratic Committee or at the state convention. So far, only three have been elected, one from Oklahoma (a former Edwards supporter now uncommitted), one from Alabama (an Obama supporter) and one from DC (an Obama supporter). If every state gives its superdelegates how it voted or is expected to, Obama gets a 12 delegate lead out of those (this is counting Texas for him, since its 3 add-ons will be elected at the state convention, which will be controlled by Obama supporters due to his caucus victory). And since Obama overwhelmingly won caucuses and thus will control almost every state convention, this means deviation from how the state voted is far more likely to be in his favor than Hillary's. But whatever the case, that gives Obama 44 out of the 76, with 2 already for him, giving him 42 of the remaining 73. And Hillary gets 31 in this scenario.

This means she needs 194 of the remaining 278 delegates. That's almost 70%. And also higher than any pecentage of superdelegates she has ever held up until now.

Hillbots and the pro-Hillary media can spin spin spin all they'd like, but spin doesn't do shit for math.

[Johnny__Motown]

1. But..... But..... But....... Big States........

[ButterflyBlood]

4. We need Hillary to win New York!

:P

It's a good thing the superdelegates aren't that stupid to believe that shit. Does anyone besides Mark Penn and a few Hillbots?

[rug]

2. Geez, how many times can you slice the same baloney?

[ButterflyBlood]

7. Hillary: The Marxist candidate?

Now there's a laugh. No question Marx would love the wife of a President with an economic policy to the right of Nixon's.

[rug]

11. I wish. But Marx tolerated bullshitters less.

So, how many times can you slice it?

[grantcart]

3. drip drip drip. Since Super Tuesday Obama has won 80% of the announced Super Delegates

[ButterflyBlood]

6. Another great graph

And Hillary's 3/4 victories didn't reverse or even stop the trend, they only slowed it.

[Upton]

5. Haven't you heard? Delegate math doesn't count

[C_U_L8R]

8. Hillary might serve herself well

to look for an elegant way to step out of the race.
It makes no sense to burn her bridges and leave
only scorched earth. This party has a lot of healing
to do once we have a true candidate.
In fact, Hillary could be a big help. I hope she becomes
a big help. The math is the math so lets get on with
winning the presidency, the congress and the supreme court.
Go Dems !!!

[SunsetDreams]

9. You would think...

I'm glad I don't represent someone who wants to game the system

[JimGinPA]

10. But Don't Forget, She's A Ftghter - And Gorgeous

:rofl:

[sorrybushisfromtexas]

12. I am a teacher.

You have got it right 1 + 1 = 2. You can add it up a thousand different times it still equals 2.

[ButterflyBlood]

13. Great analogy

Hillary supporters seem to think Hillary can change how math works.

[jakem]

18. One's don't count.....

So 1 + 1 = 0


ha!

[Scurrilous]

14. Kick

:kick:

[Bake]

15. I wonder how many superdelegates will stick with Obama

When they realize the Rev. Wright torpedoed his chances in the GE.

I suspect the superdelegates would much rather see a DEM in the White House. Nobody gets within 1000 miles of the White House when they're THAT radioactive.

Bake

[aein]

16. Screw the math. We all know math has a Pro-Obama bias.

[Vinca]

17. We might as well cut to the chase. Will the party elite give it to Hillary

because she is the wife of a President? Obama is going to have the majority, but will it count?