Clinton comprehensively beating Obama in PA. She even wins young voters. O at 17% in some regions

[jackson_dem]

From SurveyUSA, the most recent poll with crosstabs publicly available. The Obama campaign must know this and this helps explain the reappearance of exactly what they and their cronies in the media did when they were desperate after blowing NH and NV, states they should have won.

Keep in mind all of this is before the pastor story broke.

Overall: H 55, 0 36

Gender

Female: H 62, 0 32
Male: H 47, 0 42

Age

18-34: H 52, 0 42
35-49: H 53, 0 40
50-64: H 56, 0 36
65+: H 60, 0 28

Obama's coalition consists of three groups. If he loses any part of that coalition he will lose the state and thus far he has lost the youth vote.

Race

White: H 61, 0 29
Black: 0 76, H 22
Latinos: H 56, 0 39
"Other": H 69, 0 31

Philadelphia mayor Nutter may be helping Clinton with blacks. Nutter is a real agent of change and reformer. When Obama had a chance to practice what he preached in Philadelphia what did he do? He endorsed the candidate of the status quo and ally of the corrupt Street administration instead of Nutter, who has a long record of fighting against corruption and for change and reform.

Firmness of support

Already made mind: H 59, 0 36
Could change mind: H 48, 0 37

Her support is firmer, which belies the "name id" excuse.

Region

Northwest: H 79, 0 17
Southwest: H 58, 0 27
West Central: H 76, 0 17
South Central: H 55, 0 40
Northeast: H 58, 0 33
Southeastern: H 48, 0 46

17% in two regions and 27% in another. Damn...

It should be pointed out the one region he is competitive in includes Philadelphia but Obama needs big numbers in that area to offset losing so badly everywhere else.

Issues

Economy: H 60, 0 34
Environment: 0 46, H 45
Health care: H 63, 0 31
Iraq: H 48, 0 45
Terrorism: H 43, 0 35
Social Security: H 51, 0 37
Education: 0 55, H 42 (apparently Obama's right-wing views on education are helping)
Immigration: H 56, 0 23

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c9ce82e9-4cb0-4b64-983c-509ce4fc0ee6

[tekisui]

1. Set your goalpost now.

[saracat]

2. Don't even know what that means.

[tekisui]

8. It means, watch the margins narrow.

I think this is the high water mark for Hillary in PA.

[Blondiegrrl]

9. I live in West Virginia. I'm so excited that our state might end up

counting in the coming weeks! :rofl:

[geek tragedy]

15. Eh. Your state is a foregone conclusion--Clinton will carry it by

30 points. Half the people there think Obama's a Muslim plant.

[Blondiegrrl]

19. Exactly! Clinton winning WV means we'll count!

Unlike all those states that Obama won! :evilgrin:

[jackson_dem]

21. Is Clinton trying to disenfrachise two states which account for 10% of the population?

The irony of Obama's supporters. :)

[Blondiegrrl]

27. What the fuck are you talking about?

Obama played by the rules.

Unlike Clinton.

Wow, you're really in a state of denial.

[jackson_dem]

31. So did Jeb Bush. Does that make disenfranchisement right?

[Blondiegrrl]

40. How exactly is Obama disenfranchising those voters?

He has said numerous times that he's open to finding a way to seat those delegates.

But should they be seated based upon sham elections in which many voters didn't bother to cast a ballot because they thought their vote wouldn't count? No, I don't think so.

Pray tell ... how exactly is any of this Obama's fault?

[jackson_dem]

47. You missed the MI threads yesterday?

[MonkeyFunk]

109. You have it backwards

Clinton kept to the pledge 100%. Obama, however, ran ads in Florida.

[jackson_dem]

10. No, the polls show her pulling away

Obama closed to a dead heat and then the margin has steadily risen from 15 to now 20 (SurveyUsa had him at 19 bu Rassmussen is the latest poll).

[Blondiegrrl]

12. In PA? When was he ever in a dead heat in PA?

[jackson_dem]

23. When he had the momentum and was gaining everywhere

Namely before he lost Texas and Ohio.

[DebJ]

I don't recall 'even', and I live in Pa, or rather, 1853 Alabama.

I am a firm Obama supporter, but my first day on the job 5 years ago when I moved to Pa I heard
the 'n' word five times....five times in one day.
I can't believe it was ever close to even, you must be misremembering, or the pollsters were only
doing Pitts and Philly. The rednecks live in my neighborhood....literally, we are the only

Dems on the block, and that's because I moved here from maryland.

[jackson_dem]

76. www.pollster.com 46-42 is even given margin of errors

Yes, and I live right next to PA and have for almost my entire life and my parents did as well. PA isn't anymore racist than the typical state. It is probably slightly more tolerant. After all it does have a Jewish governor.

[DebJ]

83. I lived in Maryland for 46 years and didn't see racism like I see

here in Pa. Not after about 1968. God help us if the rest of the country is like this. No wonder we have
problems if a gene for skin color is so all-important - a gene that is no different than a gene for eye color.

[jackson_dem]

89. Where in MD?

The DC area I presume?

[DebJ]

92. Yep. North of DC, south of Pa.

[jackson_dem]

98. The DC area is very tolerant

I don't think you can compare that area to the central parts of PA. I am not disputing there is racism in PA. I just don't think it has more of it then similar parts of other states, like southern New Jersey and southern Delaware for instance of eastern Maryland.

P.S. Isn't it ironic that racism is being given as the reason for Obama struggling in PA? Wasn't Ed Rendell crucified by Obama supporters for saying the same thing?

[DebJ]

104. oops, I'm too tired to read posts. its after 1 am here. I lived just

over the DC line for about half of my life, then to central Maryland in Howard County, then to Carroll, Westminster, and
Frederick counties....farther and farther out and closer to Pa for the last twenty plus years. This is the first time I
have seen an all-white neighborhood since I was a child. Only it is not neighborhoods here, it is almost the entire
county.

[DebJ]

105. Funny thing is that everyone I have talked to hates Rendell

[Hepburn]

121. Jewish and black are now the same thing?

When the hell did "Jewish" become a race? Are Jews a different color and therefore easily picked out of a crowd?

GMAFB...I am from Ohio originally. I know the exact kind of racism that goes on in that area. I am from a former major industrial area ~~ steel producing ~~ that is now part of the great rust belt. Things are freaking lilly white in the small town I came from. It was that way back in the 1950s...and it is still that way.

My gawd, that area is soooooooo bigoted, my grandparents ~~ lilly white ~~ who had accents because they were foreign were looked down on and some people, in particular the wife of the superintendent of the local schools, would not let her children play with me cuz my grandparents had been born in Europe.

Sheesh...get real, OK?

[Indenturedebtor]

136. Easily picked out enough

To be persecuted by the "whites" of the world for 2,000 years. But genetically European Jews are most resemble Arabs, who are essentially caucasian along with Indians etc.

But how many morons would call an Arab/Indian white? But no "Jewish" is probably not a race, though it's way more than a religion... we are a people.

Anyways... to the OP - I'm looking forward to seeing how you spin it as her numbers continue to drop. She will probably win PA, not that it matters at this point, but do us all a favor and don't call it momentum when she barely pulls it out, having started at such a huge margin.

[Hepburn]

149. Ashkenazi Jews??? Or do you mean Siphardic Jews???

I just had breakfast with my best male pal ~~ he is an Ashkenazi Jew, Polish background. He is very fair skinned, has HUGE blue/green eyes (they are absolutely beautiful), light hair (what is left of it) and looks like the "little old Swiss Clock maker." Now, he has a pal who is Siphardic background ~~ I think born in Syria, but raised in Israel ~~ and, yes, he is dark and swarthy as would be anyone with a ME background.

I am Jewish background but come from a totally non-observant family. However, according to an Orthodox Rabbi pal of mine, by Jewish law, I am considered Jewish since my blood traces back matralinically (sp?) to my great-grandmother who was Jewish. Now when I go to his house for the meal on Friday, I am not allowed to touch anything ~~ before when he thought I was a shiksa, I could turn off the lights and start the dishwasher ~~ as long as I did not mix the meat and milk stuff ~~ before I left for home!

:hi:

[RiverStone]

53. He split TX and has won 14 out of the last 17 states outright...

He may lose PA, but also there is a good chance he will win NC.

At best, I see Hillary and Obama fighting to a draw from here --- that happens, he maintains his delegate lead.

[jackson_dem]

77. That chance becomes a low chance if he loses PA

He lost Texas and that is reflected in his trajectory in PA reversing after losing TX and OH. If Clinton loses PA she is done anyway and NC becomes moot.

[Hepburn]

118. If you are going to argue with someone, at least get your facts right, OK?

Obama won TX. It's delegates that count...and he got the most. Or is this another goal post that you have moved for your queen...er...Hillary?

[NDambi]

137. Bullshit..stop smoking crack and Ajax..bad combo for the brain and honesty meter

[tekisui]

13. 6 weeks is a year in politics.

We'll all be watching.

[DebJ]

56. I support Obama, live in Pa, but IMHO margins could widen or

stay pretty high for Hillary. Racism is rampant here in central Pa. People don't pay much
attention until close to the vote; things could easily change either way. I'm working to
get out the O vote, though.

[Independent-Voter]

115. OH and PA have some of the highest Hate Groups rates in the US. No wonder HRC does well there

Coincidence that HRC does well with bigots? I think not.

http://www.splcenter.org/intel/map/hate.jsp

[Maribelle]

122. South Carolina and Georgia have more than PA. I guess that shoots a huge hole in your theory.

Perhaps you need to reread your own link before shooting yourself in the foot again.

[Independent-Voter]

124. SC and GA both larger AA groups than PA or OH. Sorry, no cigar for you. Maybe Bill will spare one.

[Maribelle]

126. South Carolina and Georgia have more hate groups than PA regardless of your rant.

And spitting republican right wing talking points at me merely shows off your lack of con cerns.

[Independent-Voter]

130. What RW points? That Bill was fucking the intern with a cigar? Dem's just facts

[Maribelle]

131. Too bad your nose is still stick in Clinton's zipper.

What a way to live. :eyes:

[SwampG8r]

133. and

what a punishment fore a fine cigar
i mean
you gotta figure POTUS only gets the best
secret cohibas from havana
i mean cmon
the humidity in your average lovestruck intern is way too high for cigar storage

[Independent-Voter]

132. AA population rates per state, for the slow ones here

Why is it that Hilly supporters suck at math? I mean, yeah, we all know they're typically low-educated, older folks, but come on.


SC - 28.6% AA population
GA - 29.8 %

PA - 10.4% AA population
OH - 11.8% AA population

[Maribelle]

134. Attempting to cover up your big mistake with even more numbers over your head ....

merely makes you appear as if you're in over your head - - nothing more -- no matter how many attempts at insults you throw into your stinky widdle porta-potty of a post.

[NDambi]

138. Shit, I have family in SC, GA, OH & PA..and I've gotten stopped for driving while black in

rural PA and OH...only...driving the back road of GA and SC without incident..

[WinkyDink]

144. SHUT UP. JUST. SHUT. UP. I'll tell ya whom we hate: MORANS who vote "R" like you.

[ruggerson]

4. She's got to come within five points of beating Obama

[Jawja]

113. The goal post they are trying to set now is

that if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, she wins the nomination. The reasoning for this mind-boggling claim will be blared 24/7 wall-to-wall for the next 6 weeks.

[anonymous171]

3. If Obama's winning on Education because of his "Right wing" view.

Does that mean Clinton is winning on everything else because of HER right wing views?

[jackson_dem]

On what issues is she more right-wing than Obama?

Obama is right-wing on education, certainly compared to Hillary, given his support of "pay for performance/merit pay" and him being "open" to privatizing education. Clinton opposes both, like almost all Democrats...

[DebJ]

37. Money. Big Money.

[jackson_dem]

39. Specifics?

Obama is the favorite of CEO's per a poll of them...

[DebJ]

51. likely true, as CEO's are also higher educated. i don't yet have

my college degree (working on it at age 52), but I like it when voters have had a bigger dose of history courses.
You learn things.

[jackson_dem]

61. So CEO's are supporting him out of altruism

So when Obama has corporate support it has nothing to do with his agenda but when Hill has some it is proof she is a corporate candidate?

[DebJ]

68. not altruism, education, knowledge, perspective

[jackson_dem]

75. And you know this how?

Clearly you can read the minds of all CEO's and detect that the ones who like Hill do so for nefarious reasons while the ones who like Obama do so out of the goodness of their corporate hearts...

[MS68]

140. Aren't you considered over the hill

in the world of Obama supporters? I'll be 40 next month and am concerned that I'm getting a little close to being put out to pasture myself based on some of the comments I've heard - especially because I'm a woman.

I'm 39 and have a Master's degree. I guess I identify more with the less-educated old folks - probably because I won't lose my education but I will hopefully be old some day.

[Capn Sunshine]

84. Well, there's THIS

I'd say that aspect of Hillary's support is pretty right wing.
Plenty more where that came from.

ps that is a great pic of Hill.

[JVS]

87. Judging from her campaign: racial equality

[jackson_dem]

17. On what ISSUES is she more right-wing than Obama?

Obama is right-wing on education, certainly compared to Hillary, given his support of "pay for performance/merit pay" and him being "open" to privatizing education. Clinton opposes both, like almost all Democrats...

[Armstead]

71. Um, Hillary likes public funds for private charter schools

Obama said he was open to new approaches to education. Well if that makes him a right winger, then I guess Hillary is one too.



From her website:
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:EKdlqW9-bp0J:clinton.senate.gov/issues/education/index.cfm%3Ftopic%3Delementary+Hillary+Clinton,+charter+schools&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a



School Choice & Charter Schools

I support innovative approaches to education reform within the public school system, such as charter schools and alternative routes to teacher certification. I believe our public school system is one of the most important foundations of our society because it exposes students to a wide variety of ideas and cultures – to the rich diversity of their community. I promote creative and pioneering initiatives to improve academic achievement and education outcomes for all students. Charter schools are one part of a menu of reforms that hold the potential to expand the supply of high-quality public schools, especially in disadvantaged communities. Because most charter schools have limited credit histories, they often lack access to public school facilities or traditional funding streams such as bonds. A full one in three charter school operators have reported that school construction costs are a major obstacle to their school's success. That is why I proposed legislation, the Investing for Tomorrow's Schools Act, which would create an innovative funding source to help build and expand charter schools. Inadequate school buildings should not be obstacles to innovative reforms. In addition, I strongly oppose voucher schemes that divert precious resources away from financially strapped public schools to private schools that are not subject to the same accountability standards.

[557188]

141. Another Obama supporter that doesn't know issues

CHARTER SCHOOLS ARE PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Hillary is for non traditional means of public education. THAT IS A GOOD THING

Learn the freakin issues please.

[Armstead]

151. I know the freakin issues -- I was responding to a post above

Charter Schools can be controversial, because they are private institutions that receive public funds.

I'm not saying they are good or bad. They are an attempt at a variation on the familiar of public schoos that allows for innovation.

The post above said Obama was a right-winger because he also said he is open to experiments with new ways of delivering education.

Read before typing please....jackass.

[saracat]

5. Smoking! that is fabulous!

[Diane R]

6. A few days ago, her lead was 20%. Then, 19%. Now 17%. (we skipped 18%). You think this is good?

[Joe the Revelator]

22. This is Hillaryland; The worse it gets for her, the better they pretend it is.

[jackson_dem]

26. Different polls. Very good compared to right before 3/4

2/26 H 46, O 42 (within the margin of error)
2/21-2/25 H 49, O 43

[laugle]

43. Probably the Ferraro dust-up. Today it's the Rev. Wright!

[Blondiegrrl]

7. Can't win 'em all ... only the vast majority. LOL

I doubt Obama will win PA, but I expect him to narrow the gap in the coming weeks. I also believe he'll win in NC (another "delegate-rich state,") and cancel out most if not all of Clinton's gains in PA.

[jackson_dem]

20. If Obama loses PA the momentum should put Clinton over the top in NC

[Blondiegrrl]

24. Doubtful.

[jackson_dem]

33. His lead in NC has slipped to 8. NC isn't SC or MS as many Obama folks assume

It is more like TN which Hill won...

[Blondiegrrl]

49. I never assumed it was like SC or MS. I know the area very well.

[wileedog]

50. Like OH put her over the top in MS?

Let it go, its over. Even if she win by 20 in PA she is done, there is no way she is carrying NC or any of the other remaining states by a significant margin.

All that is left is the twisting SD arms in back rooms to destroy the party.. er I mean get the nomination for her.

[WinkyDink]

143. So "can't win'em all" is the new OBAMA "goalpost"? See; others can say these things, too.

[geek tragedy]

11. If Obama can compete in a state that's full of racist

hillbillies in the middle like that, hats off to him. I'd be surprised if he cracks 40% in the state. Outside of central Philly, they're just not into black people who don't play for the Steelers.

[jackson_dem]

29. Ah, the race card is already being used to smear PA because they don't buy the hype

Please keep it up! The race card will surely help his numbers!

[geek tragedy]

35. Eh. They think he's an affirmative-action candidate

already. Nothing I can say can drive his numbers further south than it is there.

[jackson_dem]

41. And you know this how? Anyone who votes against Obama is a racist!

Latinos, Asians, and now whites are back in the doghouse after being hailed for a couple of weeks as "seeing the light" after 2/9, 2/12 and WI.

Obama is going to lose PA for the same reasons he lost OH. :)

[WinkyDink]

145. But anyone who votes FOR him can't possibly be.

[DebJ]

45. I live in Pa. He is right. See my post above re 'n' word

I live in York Pa and the racism is palpable and even openly verbal. The segregation is
unreal, it really is 1853 here. . . no, wait, Pa was anti-slavery then.

[jackson_dem]

78. Yeah and Wyoming is a racial utopia?

See my reply above.

[DebJ]

102. by the way, I'm not saying that people who vote for Hill are racists

But I am saying that, compared to Maryland, racism is extreme here, and even the people I work with here who have lived here
for all of their lives, and their families for a few generations or more, laugh and say yep this area (York County, south central
Pa) is extremely racist. It is also extremely Republican. There is no way that these racists will vote for Obama, which makes
winning here for him very, very, difficult. I am willing to admit that I don't really know how racist the rest of the country is, and
that Maryland is rather multi-cultural, something I found to be invigorating....sonething that made us into a great nation ...working
with diversity as an advantage. The humor in this for me is that racists, in my experience, have also usually been sexists.. either
people are so insecure they need to put others into 'lower' boxes and step on them, or they are not...so voter turnout for the Dems might
be even worse than usual here, because the choice of a woman or a black will either cause them to not vote, or to go Republican.
Remember, this state elected Rick Santorum, the man who wrote a book saying that women need to stay home and not work, that women only work
out of greed for extra stuff (I was a single parent for 25 years, yeah, right!). But Pennsylvanians put him in office. Thank God we took
him out, too...but only because of outrage at Bush.

[amandabeech]

148. Until 1.5 years ago, I lived in Mechanicsburg, which is a suburb of

Harrisburg. You've probably heard of it.

Everything that you say about central PA is absolutely true. And the York area is worse than sophisticated, metropolitan Harrisburg. Ha! Ha! Seriously, though, there were plenty of Stars and Bars coming out of the more rural areas.

I'm relieved to be back in the DC area.

[Independent-Voter]

116. That, or the fact that PA has one the highest rates of Hate Groups in the country

Bigots are one of Hilly's strongest voting blocks.

http://www.splcenter.org/intel/map/hate.jsp

[Maribelle]

129. South Carolina and Georgia have more hate groups than Pennsylvania. Get a grip.

Go try to find some worth while issue to debate - - - you're hate pomp is now totally debunked.

[AX10]

14. Racists!

:sarcasm:

Seriously, she can kick Obambi's ass there. She also has the firm support of a real reformer, Mike Nutter.

[jackson_dem]

30. Clearly Michael Nutter is a racist who opposes change and hope

:sarcasm:

[AX10]

36. kick

[UndertheOcean]

16. Fuck

[BeyondGeography]

18. In other words, look out below, Hillary

[rug]

25. Not even The Spinners could spin this.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Nzal1Mvo5eg

[jackson_dem]

44. Yup so instead they are calling PA racist already

As if racist states elect Jewish governors all the time. :sarcasm:

[DebJ]

67. Hey, I'm a Pennsylvanian, I can call Pa as it is: racist in my area.

Also intensely pro-Bush, pro-war, pro credit and spend, pro give me a tax cut even if that means my kids starve.

[jackson_dem]

79. There are racists everywhere. Since when is racism a big factor. I thought Obama "transcended" race?

I didn't hear much about racism when he was winning Iowa and was expected to win New Hampshire big and lost by only 2 points. Racism as an excuse magically appeared in time for Super Tuesday when polls showed him losing the Latino vote badly...

[laugle]

107. It's kind of like when you

have a high temperature and you are delirious.......and now the Obama fever has broken........

[bilgewaterbill]

28. I'm saving this for use against you in 6 weeks.

:)

[jackson_dem]

34. How can it be used against me? This post is a snapshot of how things stand now

Obama clearly has his work cut out for him...17% in two regions and 27% in another while getting less than 1/3 female and white support and even losing his youth base...

[Independent-Voter]

125. I agree - it's going to be an uphill battle for those low-educated, older white women that HRC bring

out in droves. Those folks aren't exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer.

[ORDem]

147. Because your post if rife with your own commentary. You are trying to spin. n/t

[laugle]

32. Wow....those are some impressive numbers! Any figures on the undecided's?

[jackson_dem]

38. 5% for "other" and 3% undecided

I guess some folks still think Edwards is running. Remember he got 6% in Ohio when his name was accidentally included in one poll.

[laugle]

59. Thanks....I guess the Big MO is still there!

[totodeinhere]

42. Obama has been that far behind in lots of states,

only to come back and win or almost win. When he has time to do a lot of campaigning in a state, he tends to get more and more support as time goes by. So don't count him out in Pennsylvania just yet. It's way too early for that. And besides that, he should take North Carolina just like he took Virginia and South Carolina. AA support should put him over the top there regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania.

[jackson_dem]

52. He he was in a dead heat in PA before he lost Ohio and Texas...

NC isn't SC. The black population there is closer to TN than SC or Alabama and MS...Who won TN? If Obama gets 29% white support in NC he is done which is why I am glad his campaign did what they did this week...

[wileedog]

58. No NC isn't SC

The white population is much more educated and upscale, which is Obama territory.

Again, Obama doesn't necessarily need to win, Clinton need to absolutely crush. Even after a PA victory. Its not going to happen.

[jackson_dem]

81. The last NC poll was 49-41. If Obama loses PA expect the numbers to shift to Hill

I know, I know, those evil working folks are all a bunch of racists because they vote against Obama. Why are we the party of working folk anyway? We have been since Jefferson and Jackson. Why don't we let the enlightened latte crowd govern the masses and scrap democracy? Obama comes from the Hamilton wing of the party...

If he wins PA Hill is done anyway so NC is moot.

[wileedog]

Why would the numbers shift?

Because you say so? NC and PA have little in common.

And that's a terrific attitude to have to completely blow off the Democrats in the Research Triangle of NC. Obviously their votes don't count either because they aren't disenfranchised factory workers in Ohio or PA, they are merely the people trying to keep our country ahead technologically. Fuck them.

[jackson_dem]

93. Simple: momentum, my friend. The reason PA has shifted twice

When the momentum was with Obama he was closing fast in PA. After he lost 3/4 things reversed themselves.

Obama supporters tend to undervalue the importance of momentum because they believe it was Obama's great campaigning skills that led to him rapidly closing in states. It is apparent now that it was shots of momentum (breaking even on ST, 2/9, 2/12, and 2/19) that were the reason for it because as soon as the momentum shifted Hillary rapidly gained.

I believe all votes count equally and this is a fundamental Democratic principle. I am appalled at the classism of many Obama supporters. Working folks are our base and always have been.

[wileedog]

101. What reversed after 3/4?

Point out one thing that changed after Obama lost in OH like he was supposed to, and eked out a delegate win in Texas - a state he was losing by 20 three weeks before.

Fact of the matter is momentum is ridiculously over-rated. Momentum or not, Obama has won states typically geared towards his demographics and Hillary towards hers. TO think there will be some momentous sweeping change in the minds of the voters based on winning one state is retarded, and pretty much disproved when Hillary had her "big" night 3/4 then proceeded to get utterly stomped in WY and MS.

And you are the bringing up classism, I merely pointed out that NC tends to have a higher class of white voters than SC, which so far has gone for Obama. How the hell do you try and spin that as a denigration of the working class, especially when YOU were the one putting down latte liberals in the first place?

[jackson_dem]

106. The PA numbers did!

As did the numbers in several states like Wisconsin when Obama had the momentum. The demographics were with Hill in WI but she still lost. Let's see how this Wright thing plays. Obama can't win NC solely with black support like he did in SC and MS.

I don't think you are a classist. It was a general statement. I myself am a "latte" liberal.

[wileedog]

110. I think you are putting too much on one state though

Wisconsin may have moved some, but that was after Obama had knocked out a series of victories in a row over the course of several weeks. Certainly folks in NC are not going to be sitting on the edge of their seat waiting to see what happens in PA before casting their vote.

Still think its irrelevant. Even if she cuts into Obama's 600K popular vote lead by 300K in PA (best case), then she is looking at best at a tie in NC and then some minor states that mostly lean towards Obama.

She can't win the popular vote or the PDs.

[jackson_dem]

112. I am assuming FL and MI come into play

If they are excluded then she is done as far as the popular vote is concerned. I think they will be included. It would be a disaster to decide whether 10% of the nation has a voice in the credentials committee at the convention and deciding to not count them would kill us in those states. Keep in mind she doesn't need necessarily need both. She already won Florida by 300k and the turnout should be higher in round two and her lead there is what it was on 1/29. PA+FL or maybe even PA+MI and breaking more or less even in the May states will be enough.

Let's assume that there is no revote. She would have a strong moral case to count Florida anyway since everyone was on the ballot. She would have a strong claim to count that in the popular vote. She won't regarding Michigan. This is another reason I think there will be a revote. It is better to have one and let the chips fall where they may then have a lawyerly parsing over whether it counted and who truly won the popular vote.

[mtnsnake]

63. Just imagine when the Pastor story and the Hospital-Michelle scandals break. Yikes

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5069842

[totodeinhere]

72. You seem very gleeful about these so-called scandals.

Personally, I hate to see any good Democrat get caught up in scandal, especially if it's a major contender for the nomination. But in the case of these so-called scandals, they have received very little attention and I doubt if they will. If you read DU you might think that these things are a big deal, but in the real world few people have even heard of it.

(typo)

[rodeodance]

74. abc. cnn nytimes---

[totodeinhere]

95. I just checked the index page of all three of those sources you mentioned.

There was no mention of it on either the index pages of the NYT or CNN. There was one four word title in very small type on the ABC page. That hardly seems like earth shattering news to me.

But lets face it. There is going to be an ebb and flow of such stories that may harm either candidate from time to time. We have seen both candidates take minor hits. But even though die-hard Clinton supporters at DU want to milk these so-called scandals for all they are worth, when all is said and done I doubt if any of this will be of much consequence in Denver in August.

[totodeinhere]

69. His support has gone up and down in Pennsylvania.

A few weeks ago he was down even more than 18 points, assuming that the polls have been accurate, and we know that they always haven't been this year. And if he was able to close that gap before in Pennsylvania, that shows that he has the capability to come back and may do it again. As far as N. C. goes, it is more like Virginia and Maryland where Obama won. Look for him to do well in N. C. but at the very least Clinton should not pick up enough delegates there to make any difference even if she should manage to eek out a narrow win there.

[jackson_dem]

85. True he has the potential to come back in PA. All this shows is he has a tough hill to climb

I have always said the candidate who runs the best campaign will win PA since they will practically move to PA for 6 weeks.

[DebJ]

70. He has NOT been dead even in Pa!

[jackson_dem]

82. 46-42 with a 4 point margin of error qualifies as "dead even" in polling terms

[DebJ]

91. When was this poll? Who did it? You've got me very curious.

[jackson_dem]

96. Here. Rassmussen and Quinnipac had him down only 6

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[DebJ]

108. thanks for the link. not rasmussen though. but 3 others, never heard

of two of them though. Out of 31 polls, all have double digit leads for Hill except for 4, and the bulk
seem to be around a median of 15 (from a quick eye ball). I'd consider those three outliers not to be
considered, just as I would the 24 point leads on the higher range.

[laugle]

65. Face it, he has

lost his MOJO........rally's and speeches won't cut it in the end game!

The mood of the country seems to be changing, although I haven't seen the national polls yet, it should be very interesting..............

[DebJ]

73. I'd like to see proof. Do u live in Pa? I do, and all I have heard

are high Hillary margins, and our tv is always on politics.

[jackson_dem]

86. He never received bad press until the week leading up to 3/4

His numbers dropped in both TX, OH after that and also in Rhode Island. He won Wyoming, which is a caucus, and Missisppi but he won the latter on racial lines. He can't do that in any remaining state. It will be interesting to see whether he can take a punch. Thus far it seems he can't and the Wright story has a lot of potential to harm him among whites, who he is struggling with right now anyway. It also will damage him among other racial groups like Latinos and Asians, groups he has consistently lost even before Wrightgate.

[laugle]

94. I agree with you. And don't forget Rezko, and the

Earmark of 1 million for Michelle's employer after her $200,000 raise. All of this stuff stinks.

[AtomicKitten]

46. She is expected to win, but it won't be anywhere in the ballpark of enough to overtake Barack.

hee-hee

[jackson_dem]

55. She gained 230k votes in Ohio with a 10 point win. PA is larger and she is up 17-20 there

A big win in PA will set her on course to win the popular vote and the sd's will be unlikely to want to overturn the popular will. :)

[AtomicKitten]

62. She has to win 65% in every single remaining state to beat Barack - NOT GONNA HAPPEN.

Too bad.
So sad.

:nopity:

[jackson_dem]

88. By the delegate math. Not the popular vote. If she gets the popular vote she will get the sd's

:)

[totodeinhere]

100. It will be very difficult to know who actually won the popular vote.

With a mix of several versions of open primaries, and closed primaries, and caucuses, some of which only counted delegates, not individual votes, it might be impossible to know who won the popular vote for sure if it's close.

So the only thing definitive that supers will have to go on will be pledged delegates. And we all know who is almost mathematically certain to win that race.

[AtomicKitten]

120. I think it's becoming a desperate search for an angle just to stay in.

It is clear by ever measurable data that while Hilly thought Feb. 5 was her firewall and didn't plan past it, Obama employed Dean's 50-strategy effectively, state by state, to a point where it is an exercise in futility to pretend there is any reason for her to remain in the race. Yet here we are throwing money into a black hole and reserving fire on McCain waiting for her and her supporters to realize she has already lost.

[Pirate Smile]

48. Yep. She is going to win. How big will it be?

As big as Virginia? Obama won by 28.2%

As big as Maryland? Obama won by 25%

She has to win by those size margins. Actually, the Maryland margin might not be big enough - it only reached 60.7%. It has to be a Virginia size blow out.


North Carolina and Indian will be interesting as well, followed by the rest of the states.

[Blondiegrrl]

54. Arkansas was the sole state Hillary won by a blowout.

... and that was largely due to Bill's adoring fans.

[Pirate Smile]

60. Well, she needs to win by 10% points MORE then she won by in New York.

She won New York by 17%.

Barack won Illinois by 32%.

[jackson_dem]

57. I would take 10% but am hoping for 15-20%. Single digits won't cut it

If she is to win the popular vote, her only real shot at winning superdelegates, she must win comfortably in PA.

[Pirate Smile]

64. She really does need a blowout - 20% range.

It's possible. She will win it. The only real question is the margin.

[think4yourself]

66. The situation is fluid

There's so much time left. Clinton hasn't won PA yet. She thought this would all be over on Super Tuesday, no?

[Liberal In Texas]

80. OK, Let's hold the election. But Hil needs to win with a 2/3 margin to

become a nominee. Ain't gonna happen. You didn't hear it here first.

[LulaMay]

90. Thank you for some real information. I agree things are reverting to old tactics in Obama camp due

to this reality.

[Liberal In Texas]

97. That is NOT real information.

That is guesswork.

[jackson_dem]

99. Obama supporters owe Ed Rendell an apology if they are going to cite race as a factor in PA

Basically they are saying they now agree with what they crucified Rendell for saying...

[Hoof Hearted]

103. Wait until the cradle of the American Deomocracy gets a whiff of " GOD DAMN AMERICA," A.K.A.,Obama's

Mentor's statements.

Yeah, that'll help. Thank God it's out NOW.

[LordJFT]

111. good news, she'll be lucky to get within 100 delegates again

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

114. 17% in western central... why am I not surprised. n/t

[Hepburn]

117. Guess the race card works...how sad.

Seems like the ONLY way Hillary can get ahead anywhere is to play dirty. So disgusting.

IMO

[rodeodance]

128. Yes, BO playing the race card has worked well for him. Shameful.

[TayTay]

119. Sen. Clinton is ahead by 19 points in PA

As of the polling done this week. She is expected to win this state by that amount. Should she fall short in this, it would be seen as something of a defeat for her, and that she is unable to hold this strong lead over the course of the next 5 1/2 weeks.

This is a high bar to set. But, if you want to promote it, that's fine. We shall see if she maintains this overwhelming margin of victory on what is conceeded to be a Clinton state.

[Maribelle]

123. Hillary will collect the HUGE endorsements of Allegheny County Executive and Pittsburgh mayor today

Mrs. Clinton will appear today with Mr. Onorato and Mr. Ravenstahl to accept their endorsements. The two executives add to her already-wide support among the state's Democratic hierarchy. In addition to Gov. Rendell, the New York senator has the backing of major figures including Philadelphia Mayor Mike Nutter and state Democratic Chairman T.J. Rooney.




http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08074/865144-176.stm

[rodeodance]

127. Thanks for the post. That is great.

[book_worm]

135. you got your hopes high on that pastor story

It won't have legs. Something similar happened with Jimmy Carter's pastor of his church on the eve of the '76 election and it didn't have any effect. All you Clinton supporters have is hoping that something terrible will intercede and bring Obama down.

[metalluk]

139. Good assessment.

Clinton will not take Philadelphia or any significant part of its Black vote, even with Nutter's backing. The racial polarization has become too big a part of the campaign for that to happen. Otherwise, I agree with your assessment of the PA vote. Clinton will win the Pittsburgh area, all of the small cities like Altoona, Scranton, Carlisle, and Harrisburg, and all the rural areas. The Philadelphia suburbs will be a major battleground and the outcome there will be a major factor in Clinton's margin of victory. Clinton, however, needs to win BIG if she is to build enough of a case by the time of the convention to allow uncommitted superdelegates to choose her over Obama. The best she can hope for is a deficit of about 33 elected delegates, a slight lead in the overall popular vote, the big state argument, and the red-blue argument. These points can carry her past a 30-40 delegate deficit, but probably not past a 60-70 elected delegate deficit. She needs to win PA convincingly, probably by more than 14 percentage points. That will happen if the momentum continues as is, but is not a sure bet. Clinton supporters need to work now as never before.

[HughMoran]

142. Repost 3 days before the election

This is meaningless now.

[WinkyDink]

146. Gee, who is "playing the race card" when Obama supporters are calling PA. a "hate-group" state?

When HRC voters are being slandered as "racists"?

If Obama wins, will PA. suddenly be termed an enlightened state populated by good-hearted progressives?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

150. Haillary rocked the house at Temple U yesterday