Obama's Calculus to Victory

[quantass]

http://blogs.smh.com.au/whitehouse08/archives/2008/03/obamas_calculus_to_victory.html">Obama's calculus to victory

Sydney Morning Herald
March 14, 2008

In politics, there is spin and doctoring and downright monstering on message management, and it is waged with no holds barred 24/7. It's the foghorns of war. And then there is calculus and the clarity of numbers.

Notwithstanding Hillary Clinton's big wins last week in Texas and Ohio - victories that saved her campaign - the new momentum she has, and with prospects ahead of a Clinton victory in Pennsylvania on April 22, a closer look at the raw fundamentals leads to the conclusion that Barack Obama is in fact closer to clinching the Democratic nomination.

There are three key factors in this calculus:

• delegates
  
• popular vote, and
  
• electability.
  

Obama is ahead in all three - and is poised to finish the primary/caucus season as the leader with the biggest claim as victor.

1. In delegates, Obama today has 1529 to Clinton's 1417 - a lead of more than 100 that she will most likely be unable to erase.
   
   Even if Clinton wins Pennsylvania 55-45 per cent, Clinton will net a gain of only 15 delegates. In the polls today, the candidates are tied in Michigan and Clinton is comfortably ahead in Florida. Even if those two states revote, and the outcome tracks today's polls, Clinton would net perhaps 30 delegates.
   
   Obama for his part is expected to do well in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, where 250 delegates are at stake - so he can net delegates in those contests.
   
   The bottom line: the primary season will end with Obama leading in the delegate count.
   
   
2. In the popular vote, Obama has won 13.005 million votes to Clinton's 12.414 million votes to date a 51-49 per cent margin. Again, barring a blowout, the primaries will end with Obama having won more votes cast overall.
   
   In the voting to date, Obama has won 29 states, and Clinton 17, and he has more voter intensity behind him.
   
   Obama has won 25 of those contests with 55 per cent or more of the vote, and, in 19 of those states, Clinton has received less than 40 per cent of the vote. Clinton has won only six states with more that 55 per cent of the vote (including American Samoa and Michigan, where Obama was not on the ballot).
   
   
3. Electability and the superdelegates. While Obama will end the primary season ahead in delegates and the popular vote, he will most likely still not have a majority of all delegates, and therefore the final decision will hinge on the 800 superdelegates and their choice.
   
   What superdelegates care about is who is the best at the top of the ticket to protect them in November, win the White House and increase the Democrats' margins in Congress.
   
   Here is where the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll (13/3/08) is instructive on Obama's electability.
   
   While Clinton and Obama hold virtually identical slivers of leads over John McCain (47-44 per cent for Obama, 47-45 per cent for Clinton), Democratic voters, by a 48-38 per cent margin, say that Obama has the better chance of beating McCain than Clinton.
   
   Fifty-nine per cent say he passes the Commander-in-Chief test (she rates 64 per cent).
   On the pivotal issue of who has the ability to bring change, Obama gets 72 per cent, and Clinton 58 per cent.
   
   In terms of positive/negative ratings, Obama has a 51-28 positive ratio to Clinton's 45-43. And former president Bill Clinton is now viewed unfavourably (42-45) by more voters for the first time in five years.
   

Obama's calculus for victory, therefore, is quite straightforward in his message to the supers: "I have the most delegates, have won the most states, have won them more convincingly, and am the more electable. Ratify the verdict of the voters of our party, and do the right thing."

It will be hard for most of the supers to reach a different conclusion.

Obama today is poised to win the nomination.

[Jawja]

1. Well thought out analysis.

Thanks. but.... :spank:

:rofl:

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

2. Except for "Hillary's big wins." Didn't she lose Texas?

[Jawja]

3. No, Obama is actually winning or has

actually won Texas as the caucuses have come in. He will net more delegates from Texas than Clinton, which is a victory.

[BearSquirrel2]

4. Yep the dittoheads didn't caucus ...

It's clear from the results that the dittoheads didn't show up and caucus for Rush Limbaugh.

[DemVet]

5. I really think that picture you posted is out of line. We won't do that to Obama.

That picture post is shameful. I suggest you edit your post and delete it.