Ever wonder what the Kerry/Bush private pollsters are telling them?

[elperromagico]

Think about it. Kerry's sitting back, making a minimum number of heavily publicized appearances. Sometimes, he doesn't get any press at all. He's behaving like a man who's already President - dignified, above it all, not participating in petty squabbling. He has quietly raised more money than Bush this quarter.

Bush, meanwhile, is attacking Kerry at every opportunity, going so far as to suggest that Kerry didn't deserve one of his Purple Hearts (a childish accusation which Kerry was able to quickly dismiss). Bush is grasping at straws, and the average Bush contribution has reduced by nearly half this quarter.

So, what do Kerry and Bush know that we don't? What are their private pollsters telling them, and is it something that the public pollsters aren't telling us? Are their polls showing Kerry with a strong lead? Let's get a discussion going about this.

[ewagner]

1. Judging from the desparation from the Bush camp

I'd say they see the numbers as very, very bad.

Kerry, on the other hand, is letting Bush spend some of his money before fully engaging in the campaign.......monetary not polling considerations....

JMHO

[buddy22600]

2. Bush is hearing that he will win

Kerry is hearing that he will win
They both surround themselves with "yes" men
But only kerry's men are right

[elperromagico]

3. Well, of course, Bush lives in a vacuum.

But what about his advisors? Surely they're not hearing such rosy predictions.

The Bush team has gone beyond simple attacks, and into the realm of childishness. There must be some reason. They're playing this thing like a bunch of rank amateurs.

[blm]

4. I agree with your observation.

Bush has been running antiKerry ads HEAVILY in SC which signals to me that he doesn't even feel secure in SC.

[elperromagico]

5. It suggests that Bush is worried about losing his base. n/t

[randr]

13. Ditto

B* has spent a huge amount of money for naught. Everyone of his actions has been to shore far right support. He has had to reverse himself on most every issue. What were to be his greatest accomplishments have blown up in his face. All of his photo ops, which we have all paid for, have become embarrassments.
And the best of all--the main thrust of opposition has come from within his administration.

[AlinPA]

6. I think that Rove is very confident now, and is making mistakes

in his hubris that are backfiring. This latest one of attacking Kerry on his medals is a good example. Yes, the media only reported the so called "controversy" about the first medal and did not mention the Silver Star and Bronze Star. But now Kerry's campaign can use this to compare Bush*'s valor in the dentist's office.

The young guy on CNN in the AM (Bill Himmel?) said something today like "its smart that Kerry is getting all this negative stuff out of the way early..." . Since when are the Silver Star and Bronze Star negative? Bastards.

[elperromagico]

7. I think he just meant the negative attacks on Kerry's record,

both in the military and in the Senate.

Although many Americans think they have decided who they will vote for, most won't start paying attention until the conventions. If Bush has already "blown his load," so to speak, with negative attacks, it puts him in a weakened position.

Kerry has yet to use his A-material. When he does, Bush had better look out.

[AlinPA]

10. I wonder how long Rove intends to use negative ads? People

tire of them rather quickly. If thats all they have, how do they "go positive"?.

[elperromagico]

11. Just glance over the Bush record. They have nothing positive.

[leyton]

8. Kerry? Sitting back?

I don't think so. Every day it seems like there's a story on CNN.com Politics: Kerry slams the Administration on taxes, Kerry slams Bush on environment, etc. From our viewpoint, this may not be "petty squabbles" but effectively Kerry is criticizing Bush across the domestic board. He hasn't gone into full campaign mode, of course, but he's hardly keeping a low profile.

Bush is of course making lots of headlines because he's the President and everything in the Iraq war is connected to him. But Kerry's running just as active a campaign, with the exception of maybe TV ads.

[elperromagico]

9. I'm saying he's not doing everything he can (and will) do.

Kerry is sitting on his best material, waiting for the right moment to bring it out.

If this race is Tortoise v. Hare, Bush is behaving like the hare and Kerry is behaving like the tortoise. Remember who won that particular race?

[Bill Todd]

12. Who knows, this early in the game?

If I had to guess what Kerry is doing, I'd say that he's sitting back, letting surrogates attack Bush, and waiting for Bush to screw up (as he does on such a regular basis) while John Forbes Kerry slowly becomes better-known to the electorate without, insofar as possible, committing himself to specific positions (a tactic that he's very well-versed in).

If I had to guess what Bush is doing, I'd say that he's throwing up a lot of stuff against the wall early (early enough not to look anything like last-minute desperation) to see which pieces seem to have sticking power for the long term, while keeping some of the choicest items in reserve.

The main difference between the two is that the American public pretty much already knows (at least vaguely) the negative stuff that there is to know about Bush and doesn't seem all that bothered by it (and Kerry shows little evidence of being a man able to wake them up). By contrast, they've got a great deal left to learn about Kerry, and an opposition extremely competent at molding their perceptions as they learn it.

If the electorate weren't largely uncritical, uninformed sheep, there'd be no doubt about the outcome of the election (well, there might be some excitement about whether Bush would finish 2nd or 3rd - or whether the GOP would dump him at the convention for someone more 'electable'). In our current reality, it's going to be a long 6+ months.

- bill

[ngGale]

14. Kerry is playing it smart---Bush is throwing money on ads in...

North and South Carolina. Bush is afraid of Edwards, always was. But when Edwards won the N.C. primary, commercials started to really increase. FOX did not even mention Edwards winning NC, I watched all day. The Republican guy kept saying Edwards could not even take his own state, and when he did, FOX shut up. Bush is in trouble in the South and he can't afford to lose a RED state. Kerry will say the right thing on the war when it's time. Right now Bush is burning all by himself while FOX, etc. keep trying to get the Kerry plan. Kerry is just watching Bush implode, then he will come out. We wanted Kerry to define himself, but Bush is doing it for him. Bush is trying to be more like Kerry. LOL Kerry is playing a great game and there is plenty time for him to go all out. It's early.

[Bill Todd]

15. The problem is getting the electorate to wake up

Something Kerry has not so far shown he's very good at.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0422-09.htm

And even if he could get those people to listen, he'd then have to explain away his own support for the war (before, during, and after).

- bill

[Racenut20]

17. I think you have it right.

[bklyncowgirl]

16. Bush's anti Kerry themes are sticking

USA Today did a focus group in one of the battleground states (I think it was Missouri) where they found that even people who claimed they didn't watch the negative ads were able to echo the themes of these ads when the described John Kerry i.e. he doesn't mean what he says and he will raise your taxes. Many where surprised to hear that Kerry's proposal was only to raise taxes on persons making over 200,000 a year.

Bush is playing to his base. The strategy seems to be to keep the base faithful and keep the swing voters home on election day with blistering negative attacks on Kerry.

[59millionmorons]

18. Bush stopped most of his ads, because they were failing

They admitted this, if the numbers were looking good they would not of stopped the ads. Also last Friday on Hardball they were having a discussion and Matthews brought up to Buchanon that Bush was down 7 in the latest Newsweek poll. Terry Holt chimned in and said no were down about three. Holt knows what his own internals say. I believe this was a slip of the tongue.