MSNBC Hardball Rpt: Kerry now leading in all battleground states!

[MoonRiver]

No link, I just heard it on Tweety.

[skooooo]

1. details??

[yorgatron]

2. they found the REAL poll numbers finally?

'bout damn time...

[lancdem]

3. See this post

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

Ruy says Bush's improved poll numbers could be the result of his gaining in red states, where he already leads.

[yardwork]

4. Thanks for that link!

Note also that Bush's approval rating in the battleground states is 49 percent, 2 points under his national rating and that his approval rating on the economy in these states is just 41 percent, 3 points under his national rating.

......Instead of getting more votes where he needs them--in the battleground states--his posturing is mostly driving up his support in the hardcore red states, where he doesn't need them.

This makes sense to me, and it matches what I see happening in my own little sphere. Here in NC - a red state - the hardcore Chimp supporters are becoming more shrill and more desperate.

Meanwhile, in my old home state of Ohio, relatives who consider themselves Republicans or Independents - some of whom voted for Chimp in 2000 - are totally disgusted with him and can't wait to throw him out of office.

Can Rove and Co change direction in time to win the election? Well, the Chimp administration has done everything else poorly.

[MidwestTransplant]

5. Can you still vote in Ohio?

Maybe you can consider yourself a OH resident and a domicile of NC so you can vote in Ohio.

[lancdem]

6. You're welcome

Thanks for the good news from Ohio. :)

[surfermaw]

12. Disagree

North Carolina is going democratic, republicans are angry with Bush and will stay home come election day in Nov.2004. Haven't seen them so angry in 60 years.

[powergirl]

13. I think Edwwards as running mate can deliver both Carolinas

for the Dems. They love him there. I hope Kerry picks him.

[DjTj]

18. Get rid of a "w"...

...it's spelled "Edwards" - you need to get rid of a "dubya" and that's exactly what Edwards is going to do as VP ;)

[eumesmo]

17. The difference is too much

If Bush is really ahead nationally by 3 or 4 points, then he's ahead in the EC. If it's within a point, 2 on the outside, then it's possible to have the popular vote winner lose on EC. Look at the last election. If Bush had taken as little as 1/2% or 1/4% more popular vote, that could have resulted in 5 more states for him. Conversely, Gore would have taken FL and NH with 1/4% more. So small changes nationally can make a big change in EV.

One thing about polls that noone seems to pay attention to is that the different polling companies use different methodologies, which leads to results which aren't in harmony with each other. One needs to use some common sense and brain to try to figure out what's really happening.

At this point we can say that the race is close, with Bush probably having a slight lead. However, there's a long way to go and a lot to happen.

[zorkpolitics]

7. Individual states

Two sites keep track of the latest polls in each state:
DC Political Report:
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm
and the Hedgehog Report:
http://www.davidwissing.com/

Looking over the latest polls reveals its still too close to say if either Kerry or Bush is leading:
Currently Kerry leads in the following swing states:
MI by 10
MN by 12
WA by 5


Bush leads in:
AK by 2
AZ by 9
CO by 5
MO by 7
NV by 11
NH by 3
OR by 2
PA by 4
TN by 11
WI by 4
WV by 5

OR, WI, and PA would be gains of 38EV for Bush

Both are tied(or ahead by only 1)in
IA
FL
NM
OH

If Kerry took all four that’s a loss from Bush of 47 EV. Interestingly that would result in a 269 to 269 tie!

[leyton]

8. There is a problem with this.

Suppose the election turns out this way. Bush supporters turn out in droves in the red states, we edge him out in the swing states, and we perform comfortably in the blue states. The possibility is that Bush wins the popular vote while Kerry wins the electoral college. What then? Many of us claimed that Bush's election was illegitimate, and while I know some base it on theft of Florida, a lot of people complained that he lost the popular vote. The tables will be turned.

That said, that's a small price to pay for Kerry winning the election. But I'd like him to win the popular vote too.

[Lefty48197]

11. Easy. We take it as a mandate:

First, we eliminate taxes for individuals making less than $50,000 per year, and make up the entire difference by raising taxes on the top bracket. Second, we take a portion of the tuition paid by private school attendees, and use it to help fund the public schools. Oh yeah. We'll also pull the troops out of Iraq, and get back to work fighting terrorism.

[YNGW]

14. Reply

>Second, we take a portion of the tuition paid by private school attendees, and use it to help fund the public schools.

Not in this lifetime.

My kids go to private school because the public schools around here weren't teaching anything and don't control the students. My youngest child is also special needs and all they wanted to do was to mainstream her just to get her out of the way.

You wanna do something, fix the public schools where people can feel good about the education their children are receiving. But, don't lay the burden on those who have determined that they've waited long enough for things to change and decided they can't wait any longer to do what is best for the future of their children.

>First, we eliminate taxes for individuals making less than $50,000 per year, and make up the entire difference by raising taxes on the top bracket.

On a side note, I assure you there are a lot of self-employeed people who would suddenly be making less than $50K/yr., if you know what I mean. ;-)

I own and operate my own business. :hi:

[sangha]

24. I like the way you think

.

[Blasphemer]

21. I wouldn't mind that at all

That result would be fantastic IMO. Anyone complaining would look mighty foolish considering *'s thievery. The system is what it is. I disagree with it but until the EC is abolished, there is always the risk. The problem in 2000 was the criminal activities involved. If they try to make a stink about it, they only need to be reminded what happened just 4 years earlier. It would be karmically just if he lost that way.

[leftynyc]

22. I didn't think it was illegitimate because of the

popular vote - it was the Supreme Court handing the Presidency to * that made it illegitimate. We would have to change the constitution to get rid of the electoral college - and coming from a big state (New York), I think it's a good idea to get rid of it. Why should someone's vote in Wyoming count more than mine?

[powergirl]

9. On Hardball did you see Laura Ingram get bitch slapped

by a DNC guy from New York. Laura was whining about Kerry "flip flopping" on his war service and then protesting against the war and how offensive it was to veterans - blah blah blah. Anyway, the DNC guy gets his turn and he told Laura - How dare you and the other Republicans try to minimize or ridicule the sacrifices made by Kerry in the war. I'm sure there are some things that George Bush did in 1971 that wasn't exactly presidential. In 1971, when Kerry was being shot at by the Viet Cong, the only injury Bush receveived was the scrape on his knee from when he ran away from the Texas Air National Guard.

OUCH :spank:
FOR the first time Ms. Laura was speechless. We need more attacks like that to show Bush for the fraud he really is.

[MoonRiver]

10. Yeah, I saw her smug little face turn to stone and start to crack.

Payback's a bitch, ain't it Laura?

[napi21]

15. I missed Hardball today. That was a GREAT comeback!!

I'll have to watch it on the rerun tonight. Thanks!

That's the kind of stuff we need to keep doing. I sure don't hear very much of it! Nasty but irrefutable.

[DaveSZ]

16. I hope

that Bush wins the popular vote and loses the EC.

Perhaps then we could get the support for EC reform.

[ngGale]

19. Seeing Laura's mouth twitching made me...

laugh like a dog. I'm thinking how much longer can you try and put down the perfect candidate. Bush has 0 to work with and now when they try to 'spin' it splats right back in their face. LOL

[opihimoimoi]

20. When Spinning like the Pubs do, sooner or later Mr Murphy gonna show up

Like if something bad gonna happen, it surely will. Laura found her bad news in the encounter.

[West Coast Democrat]

23. Even the latest Gallup poll shows them tied in the "purple" states

at 49%....there's a chart on the Gallup website

[fujiyama]

25. This sounds nice

but isn't indicitive of anything really.

After all it comes down to individual states. After all NH is a battleground state but is only worth four or five electoral votes, while PA, and FL, are worth 21 points and 27 points respectively.

The main thing is, if Kerry wins PA and OH, it's going to be extremely difficult for Bush to win, even if he does get PA in the end.

Ultimately, it comes down to a few EV rich states (PA, OH, FL). That's the big three.

Then there's the great lakes trinity - MN, IA, and WI. All three were quite close, but I don't see Bush winning them because, it's likely many moderates were fooled by Bush's "compassionate conservatism" BS in those states.

[mzmolly]

26. Thank Goddess!!!

:toast:

Keep on keepin on Mr. Kerry!!!!