80% of Pledged Delegates Elected; Clock Running Out on Clinton

Khaotic

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Fri Mar-14-08 01:22 PM
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80% of Pledged Delegates Elected; Clock Running Out on Clinton

Even Hillary-land can't defy math.

They can scream and scream that 2+2=5, but it won't change the truth.

Obama is nearing the 50%+1 mark and he'll have it when he hits 1,627. Only 216 delegates needed to get to that mark.

The supers are also moving to Obama even before he as reached the 50%+1 mark. Once he reaches it look for the supers who have been on the fence to go Obama.

Lets look at this ... he needs 216 more delegates (stands at 1,411).

Delegates Obama should win in upcoming contests (even with loses to Hillary):
Penn. = at least 60 (1,471; left=156) <gives Clinton a 62%/38% win>
Guam = at least 1 (1,472; left=155) <gives Clinton a 70%/30% win>
Indiana = at least 30 (1,502; left=125) <gives Clinton a 59%/41% win>
N.C. = at least 68 (1,570; left=57) <gives Obama a 59%/41% win>
W.V. = at least 14 (1,584; left=43) <gives Clinton a 51%/49% win>
Kentucky = at least 17 (1,601; left=26) <gives Clinton a 66%/34% win>
Oregon = at least 34 (1,635; over 50%=1 by more than 8 del) <gives Obama a 65%/35% win>

Mark your calendars for May 20 ... that's the date Obama should reach 50%+1 and an extreme and legit case will be made for Hillary to concede.

By the her Super delegate lead will have deminished even further.

She'll have a little momentum out of Penn., and maybe a little more out of Guam, but Obama's win in North Carolina will net him more delegates than Hillary's win in Indiana. He'll come out of the May 6 contests as the winner taking back perceived momentum.

West Virginia will be a virtual draw. Hillary will probably take it, but it won't net her any delegates.

Then there's Oregon ... this will be HUGE in that it will erase what little hope Hillary has left as Obama will eclipse the 50%+1 mark.

This is all achieved with MI/FL remaining out of the picture. Even with MI/FL in, the result will be the same, but it will take a little longer to reach the result. I don't believe the vote in MI/FL will be counted as they stand, at best for Hillary it will be a revote. With my personal projection here's how it all plays out even with MI/FL revotes.

Obama finishes up by more than 60 delegates.

You may choose to only see the late contests and choose to focus on Hillary taking the better percentage of them, but in what kind of contest do you discount 75% of the season?

Sports analogy ... in NASCAR terms, Hillary and Obama are neck and neck with the checkered flag coming out, too bad Hillary doesn't understand that she's an entire lap behind and that the checkered flag isn't for her.

In racing, if a driver finds itself neck and neck with the leader, but is a lap behind, you're frowned on if you race as if that lap doesn't exist. This is especially true in that you're risking putting yourself and/or the leader into the wall. When that happens in racing I can't say how much of a win it would be if you're true focus isn't making up that lap, but is instead to turn the race into a kind of demolition derby.

Hillary supporters ... do you give the thumbs up to this kind of strategy?

She can't make up the lap, but we'll get a great show up and through May 20 or whenever Obama hits 50%+1, whenever it comes.

Right now I would say that Hillary is in it to put forth her best performance and to pray for Obama to flame out. I'm sure she'll be there fanning the flames, if not providing the gas and a match if she gets the opportunity.