THE MATH – Friday, March 14 – Superdelegate Statistics (HOLY CRAP!)

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Friday, March 14 – Superdelegate Statistics (HOLY CRAP!)

3:30 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Updates and additions today:
- Colorado, Texas pledged delegates updated
- Updated superdelegates and expanded superdelegate section
- Numbers of additional superdelegates needed to win the nomination, multiple scenarios

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,661.0 of 3,227.0 – 82.5%

**********************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 14:
Hillary Clinton – 1,499.5 (525.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,622.5 (402.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 900.0
(Sources: AP, Wikipedia 3/14/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

**********************

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 14:
Hillary Clinton – 1,250.5
Barack Obama – 1,410.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/14/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,816.5 (208.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,976.5 (48.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 14: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,090.0
Barack Obama – 1,107.0
(Source: Countdown with Keith Olbermann, 3/10/08, plus MS)

“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 14: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 160.5
Barack Obama – 303.5
(based on source for “primary only” pledged delegates above)

**********************

SUPERDELEGATES (EXPANDED INFORMATION)

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 249 (Source: AP 3/14/08)
Barack Obama – 212 (Source: AP 3/14/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 334

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan):
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,533.5 Pledged, 249 Super, 242 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,693.5 Pledged, 212 Super, 119 more superdelegates needed
There would be 334 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 242 of 334 – 72.5% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 119 of 334 – 35.6% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,690.0 Pledged, 264 Super, 254 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,850.0 Pledged, 217 Super, 141 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 254 of 348 – 73.0% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 141 of 348 – 40.5% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,712.5 Pledged, 264 Super, 232 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,760.5 Pledged, 217 Super, 231 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 232 of 348 – 66.5% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 231 of 348 – 66.2% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,597.5 Pledged, 256 Super, 249 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,757.5 Pledged, 213 Super, 132 more superdelegates needed
There would be 346 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 249 of 346 – 72.0% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 132 of 346 – 38.2% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,626.0 Pledged, 257 Super, 247 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,786.0 Pledged, 216 Super, 128 more superdelegates needed
There would be 336 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 247 of 336 – 73.5% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 128 of 336 – 38.1% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,638.5 Pledged, 257 Super, 235 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,760.5 Pledged, 216 Super, 154 more superdelegates needed
There would be 336 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 235 of 336 – 69.8% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 154 of 336 – 45.7% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,702.5 Pledged, 264 Super, 242 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,824.5 Pledged, 217 Super, 167 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 242 of 348 – 69.4% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 167 of 348 – 47.8% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,607.5 Pledged, 256 Super, 239 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,693.5 Pledged, 213 Super, 196 more superdelegates needed
There would be 346 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 239 of 346 – 69.1% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 196 of 346 – 56.6% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,700.0 Pledged, 264 Super, 244 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,786.0 Pledged, 217 Super, 205 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 244 of 348 – 70.1% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 205 of 348 – 58.9% of remaining superdelegates needed

To summarize it a different way:

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 242 of 334, or 72.5% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 254 of 348, or 73.0% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 232 of 348, or 66.5% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 249 of 346, or 72.0% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 247 of 336, or 73.5% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 235 of 336, or 69.8% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 242 of 348, or 69.4% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 239 of 346, or 69.1% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 244 of 348, or 70.1% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 119 of 334, or 35.6% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 141 of 348, or 40.5% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 231 of 348, or 66.2% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 132 of 346, or 38.2% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 128 of 336, or 38.1% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 154 of 336, or 45.7% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 167 of 348, or 47.8% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 196 of 346, or 56.6% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 205 of 348, or 58.9% of remaining SDs

Going 50/50 here on out, in Senator Clinton’s best case scenario, she would still need two-thirds of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

On the other hand, Senator Obama’s superdelegate needs cross the “over half” mark ONLY if the Michigan delegation is seated as is, from the January results, in a 50/50 scenario.

**********************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan):
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,562.5 Pledged, 249 Super, 213 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,664.5 Pledged, 212 Super, 148 more superdelegates needed
There would be 334 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 213 of 334 – 63.8% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 148 of 334 – 44.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,734.5 Pledged, 264 Super, 210 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,805.5 Pledged, 217 Super, 186 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 210 of 348 – 60.2% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 186 of 348 – 53.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,741.5 Pledged, 264 Super, 203 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,731.5 Pledged, 217 Super, 260 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 203 of 348 – 58.2% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 260 of 348 – 74.6% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,632.5 Pledged, 256 Super, 214 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,722.5 Pledged, 213 Super, 167 more superdelegates needed
There would be 346 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 214 of 346 – 61.8% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 167 of 346 – 48.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,664.5 Pledged, 257 Super, 209 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,747.5 Pledged, 216 Super, 167 more superdelegates needed
There would be 336 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 209 of 336 – 62.1% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 167 of 336 – 49.6% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,667.5 Pledged, 257 Super, 206 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,731.5 Pledged, 216 Super, 183 more superdelegates needed
There would be 336 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 206 of 336 – 61.2% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 183 of 336 – 54.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,737.5 Pledged, 264 Super, 207 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,789.5 Pledged, 217 Super, 202 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 207 of 348 – 59.3% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 202 of 348 – 57.9% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,636.5 Pledged, 256 Super, 210 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,664.5 Pledged, 213 Super, 225 more superdelegates needed
There would be 346 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 210 of 346 – 60.7% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 225 of 346 – 65.0% of remaining superdelegates needed

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida:
Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 55/45:
Hillary Clinton – 1,738.5 Pledged, 264 Super, 206 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,747.5 Pledged, 217 Super, 244 more superdelegates needed
There would be 348 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 206 of 348 – 59.1% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 244 of 348 – 70.0% of remaining superdelegates needed

To summarize it a different way:

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 213 of 334, or 63.8% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 210 of 348, or 60.2% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 203 of 348, or 58.2% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 214 of 346, or 61.8% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 209 of 336, or 62.1% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 206 of 336, or 61.2% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 207 of 348, or 59.3% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 210 of 346, or 60.7% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 206 of 348, or 59.1% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 148 of 334, or 44.3% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 186 of 348, or 53.3% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 260 of 348, or 74.6% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 167 of 346, or 48.3% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 167 of 336, or 49.6% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 183 of 336, or 54.3% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 202 of 348, or 57.9% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 225 of 346, or 65.0% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 244 of 348, or 70.0% of remaining SDs

Giving Senator Clinton a 55/45 edge in pledged delegates from here on out will still require her campaign to pick up more than half of the remaining superdelegates IN EVERY SCENARIO.

The 55/45 disadvantage in pledged delegates from here on out for Senator Obama’s campaign would still put forth three scenarios where they would need less than half of the remaining superdelegates to clinch the nomination.

***********************

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 14 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 12,903,848
(Source: Wikipedia 3/14/08 plus states listed above)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 14 (includes WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 13,173,496
Hillary Clinton – 12,639,549

Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 14:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, as of March 14 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 13,774,834

With Michigan only added, as of March 14* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 13,232,157
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 14* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 14,103,143
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

**********************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,661.0 of 3,540.0, or 75.2%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 64.1%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.9%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.1%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.9%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 54.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 45.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 61.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.5%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 60.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.2%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.2%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 57.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 42.4%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.3%, in all remaining contests

**********************

THE NEW ELECTIONS SCENARIO

Looking at Scenario 2 above, if both Florida and Michigan hold new primaries, Senator Clinton will need to win an average of 59.1% in all the remaining contests, including Florida and Michigan. That’s considerably higher than the 54.2% she would need on average in every remaining contest if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were seated based on the January primary results. Senator Clinton has achieved 59% in only one state during this primary season.

On the other side of the coin, if new elections are held in Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will need to win an average of 40.9% in all the remaining primaries, including Florida and Michigan. Even though that’s higher than the 35.9% he would need under status quo in all the remaining contests, it’s still highly probable to achieve.

Clinton’s wins over 59%: (1)
Arkansas – 70%

Obama’s wins over 59%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Mississippi – 61%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%

**********************

MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.php

(emphasis mine)

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PENNSYLVANIA

There are 158 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Winning with 70% here would require Senator Clinton to pick up 111 of those delegates to Senator Obama's 47.

If she does this, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 73.5% in all the remaining contests, under status quo, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates.

If new elections are held in both Michigan and Florida, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 63.5% in all the remaining contests including Florida and Michigan, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates.

Only if Michigan and Florida are BOTH seated as is, from the January elections, AND Senator Clinton takes Pennsylvania with 70.0%, would she catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. That's a very tall order, everything considered.

**********************

BROKERED CONVENTION

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.

Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

**********************

OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season. I’m still looking for actual rules or guidelines for the convention balloting process. Any links will be greatly appreciated!

Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/3e5b3bfa1c1718d07f_6rm6bhyc4.pdf



**********************



Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Granting permission to use the information in this thread

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

:dunce:

[LordJFT]

21. Thanks! Hopefully I won't get accused of plagiarism then

[XemaSab]

2. dig the math

:patriot:

[caledesi]

24. Wish HC would..she is doing MCCain's dirty work for him! nT

[JPZenger]

3. An amazing amount of info - 83% of pledged delegates decided so far nt

[mod mom]

4. Thank you again for these informative updates! rec'd

[grantcart]

5. Obama gains one superdelegate today and Clinton loses one on Monday

Great job as always

[phrigndumass]

8. LOL That's good, but ...

Imagine having to re-do all of this work again today! LOL ... I'll save it for the weekend edition.

It seems the moment you publish, something in the statistics changes and it's outdated. Such is the nature of numbers.

Thanks grantcart!!!

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

32. lol I don't even know if your numbers are out of date because I prefer DCW

and they are a lot more conservative in their numbers and provide a link to every superdelegate endorsement.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

Their magic number for Obama is 426 and Clinton 532

[phrigndumass]

33. DCW site has been a very good source for finding some of this info

Their links are where I find a lot of the data here, particularly the highest reported superdelegates for each candidate (usually AP, but sometimes CBSnews). Great site! Awesome job on the details of the endorsing superdelegates, too. I could never do that! (That's too much work for me.)

The magic numbers require a mix of pledged delegates and superdelegates. I just go a step further and work out scenarios using pledged delegates, because pledged delegates are less of a "variable" than superdelegates are. I'm always stuck wanting to know the "how" and "why."

Ain't OCD fun? LOL ...

[grantcart]

42. Yes and you have done such a really great job I hate to make the following

observation:

Delegates are not distributed on a state basis, but by districts. So it is really meaningless if Hillary gets 51% or 57% because it may mean that she will not generate any additional delegates. Because of this your numbers may actually be significantly understating the challenge that Hillary is facing.

I have looked for a really good explanation of how delegates are distributed by district by percentage, i.e. 3 delegate district, 4 delegate district is split 3-1 when you get such and such percent etc.

Have you seen any clear explanation because a lot of Clinton supporters still think that there is a slim possibility that Hillary could come back and win this fairly.

Again I love what you are doing - and look forward to it every day.

[phrigndumass]

46. I'm very intrigued!

I offer that I'm doing these calculations on pure integers. It has occurred to me that there are possible groupings of delegates that will change the percentages, but I haven't "gone there" yet. I do know, however, that the most it could change is up to the next level of 5's or 7's. The real numbers would change, but I am imagining at this point that the percentages themselves wouldn't change all that much. After reading your post, I just ran a few calculations with variables up to 5 delegates higher in different scenarios for each candidate. The biggest difference from the OP numbers is 0.45%. I'm wondering if I should notate this now.

Thank you for bringing it to light. I definitely want to know more about this! For the sake of accuracy.

There "is" a very slim chance that Senator Clinton could win, although it would be extremely improbable. You need to give them that small leeway, and then clobber them with the math. Without a significant amount of manipulation on the part of Senator Clinton's campaign (e.g., seating Michigan as is, or a kitchen sink atomic bomb), Senator Obama is poised to win the nomination, simply because most of the voting has already taken place and his campaign's lead is too significant.

:thumbsup:

[JPZenger]

6. Hillary said Obama told his voters to vote uncommitted

The worse scenarios in the above choices involve seating all of Hillary's delegates from Michigan as is, without any for Obama.

Hillary has justified the Michigan election by saying that Obama told his supporters to vote uncommitted. That is about 45% of the vote, so by Hillary's logic, Obama should get 45% of Michigan's delegates. There were no other major candidates on the ballot, similar to a Stalin-era election.

Also, in Michigan, the violation of the party rules was clearly the fault of the local Dems, vs. Florida Dems have some valid arguments for blaming the mess on the GOP.

Any Michigan official who voted for or signed the bill violating the rules should not be voting as a superdelegate. But let the voters have a new election.

[phrigndumass]

10. I wouldn't mind seeing new elections in MIchigan and Florida

But seating those delegations, as is, would not only be unfair to the voters of Michigan, but also unfair to all of the other states and territories who followed the rules agreed to by both campaigns.

IMHO

[phrigndumass]

7. Why I wrote "Holy Crap!"

Here's why I wrote HOLY CRAP:

"Giving Senator Clinton a 55/45 edge in pledged delegates from here on out will still require her campaign to pick up more than half of the remaining superdelegates IN EVERY SCENARIO."

More like: at least 60% of the remaining superdelegates needed, every single scenario.

Does anyone here think that Senator Clinton will fare better than an average of 55% of the pledged delegates in all the remaining races combined?

:wow:

[caledesi]

26. Do the math HC....don't split the party for your "gain;" NT

[adoraz]

27. No way she will

great post BTW!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

66. It's totally unrealistic to think that Obama could get 40%.

Wait a second. That's totally reasonable.

[Scurrilous]

9. K & R

:thumbsup:

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

11. kickers

[housewolf]

12. Wow! What an amazing piece of work!

Thanks so much for all your efforts to keep us all informed.

Wow! That's all I can say, just Wow!

:yourock:

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks housewolf

Fun to do!

I found a place to store the spreadsheet, and I'll let everyone download it when it's ready.

[phrigndumass]

13. Go to my journal to compare today's report to previous daily reports

Link to journal:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

- Phrig

[ozone_man]

14. Edwards 26 delegates start to look important.

Also, if they seat FL delegates as is, didn't Edwards get some there too?

If they seat MI, then that provides a short fall of delegates. Most of those uncommitted delegates should probably be Obama's. This is why he has to push for a revote or not seating them at all.

[TheDoorbellRang]

68. Things may change in IA, too. Their county convention is today

Iowa will go through a county convention today, then their district convention on April 26th, then their state convention on June 14th, when we'll finally have the results of the Iowa caucus. Here are some snippets of info from The Green Papers:

Saturday 15 March 2008: Democratic Party County Conventions convene in each county. Each County Convention chooses the county's delegates to both Congressional District Conventions and the Iowa State Convention based on presidential preference. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be viable. Delegates assigned to a non-viable candidate will realign themselves to another candidate.

Only as of Saturday 14 June 2008 will ALL of Iowa's 57 Democratic National Convention delegates have been allocated: the estimates made re: delegate allocation as a result of the Iowa caucuses will likely not match the presidential preferences and pledges of the National Convention delegates as actually chosen because it is rather probable that the field of Democratic presidential contenders on Saturday 14 June 2008 will very well be quite different from the way that same field looked at the time the Iowa Precinct Caucuses had taken place way back in January!

Here's how they ended up back in 2004, when Kerry was the presumptive nominee:

Iowa caucus in January: Kerry 21; Edwards 17; Dean 7
Iowa goes to the national convention with: Kerry 39; Edwards 4; Dean 2
(Their 12 super delegates went to the national convention as officially "uncommitted.")

[RichardRay]

15. As one quant to another - my hat is off to you!!!

Wow, way to slice and dice. I'm copying that to a text file for easy reference.

[phrigndumass]

17. Feel free to copy it

The truth is good to share!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

18. LINK TO THE SPREADSHEET ... Download it and play play play

Here's the link to the spreadsheet:

http://www.box.net/shared/xnx7q7hk0o

Let me know if it doesn't work. Enjoy!

- Phrig

[phrigndumass]

29. Has anyone fiddled with the spreadsheet yet?

Whatcha think?

Can you find a reasonable scenario where Senator Clinton could win the nomination?

I couldn't find one, but then again I wouldn't call seating Michigan as is "reasonable."

[TheDoorbellRang]

70. I actually heard a talking head on TV last night say that

the super delegates should ignore the pledged delegate count AND the popular vote and base their choice on national polls. Now there's a straw to grasp!

[elixir]

19. This is great but could you do a condensed or a "to the point" version. My head hurts.

[phrigndumass]

20. "Your" head hurts, LOL!

I'll be glad to work on a condensed version.

:hi:

[elixir]

23. Thanks!!

:hi:

[AlinPA]

22. This is an excellent post - in keeping with the high quality posts on DU over the years.

Thank you very much.

[phrigndumass]

28. What a terrific compliment!

Thanks so much!

:blush:

[phrigndumass]

25. Link to Condensed Version

Here's the link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5080420

It cuts out all those tedious sources and calculations.

- Phrig

[phrigndumass]

31. bump

[phrigndumass]

52. bump

[phrigndumass]

63. bump

[jazzjunkysue]

30. Bottomline: HRC needs to keep Obama shut out of Michigan, and that's not gonna happen.

No way will they seat Michigan with 0 votes for Obama.

No way can she win.

Thanks, so much! :loveya:

[phrigndumass]

34. Thanks for the "love" ...

I agree about Michigan. It would be irresponsible, at best, to seat the Michigan delegation based on the January results.

At worst, it would be an outright crime.

Back atcha ...
:loveya:

[immoderate]

35. Awesome!

I am a spreadsheet person. I'd love to see the worksheet. Mind blowing that you worked out all the scenarios. :applause: :applause: :applause:

--IMM

[phrigndumass]

37. Your wish is my command ...

Here's the link to the spreadsheet:

http://www.box.net/shared/xnx7q7hk0o

:dunce:

[Swamp Rat]

44. It wouldn't let me download it.

[immoderate]

54. Got it.

That's one beautiful spreadsheet.

--IMM

[phrigndumass]

56. Great!

It's a bit messy for my liking, but it gets the job done. Let me know if you have a question.

:dunce:

[backscatter712]

36. In short, Obama's almost clinched it.

Short of Obama eating a baby live on CNN, there's no way he can lose - even in the worst case scenario, Hillary cannot catch up in delegates.

[phrigndumass]

38. That's true

Campaigns have this kind of information available to them. I used to do this kind of thing as a consultant for local democratic candidates, so I know for a fact that it's out there.

The difficulty is in helping someone see the bad news for their campaign when it's apparent they don't have a chance anymore, and allow them time to let it go. They've spent a huge amount of time and energy toward one goal, and they're extremely attached to that goal. Going through the stages is necessary, but Senator Clinton seems to be spending a disproportionate amount of time on the stage of Denial.

I like my babies with soy sauce. How 'bout you?

- Phrig

[SwampG8r]

62. never with soy too salty

i take mine and let them air dry then i use


4 virgin island bay leaves
1/4 c of ginger root
3 garlic cloves
1 whole nutmeg
4 sprigs fresh thyme
1 1/2 tsp fresh cinnamon
2 Tbspns sesame oil
1/2 tsp allspice
and the juice of 2 limes about 1/4 cup
2 cleaned habanero peppers medium sized (clean wearing gloves for your protection)
put into a food processor and liquify

now completely coat the baby with the mixture inside and out
and slow roast over a small wood fire

now thats some good baby

[phrigndumass]

75. ahh, but bay leaves can be poisonous ...

... so you gotta make sure the baby is good and dead before you add the bay leaves. And instead of coating the baby with the sauce mixture, why not put the baby in the food processor with the ingredients? It'll make for an even taste throughout.

How about baby burgoo?

[SwampG8r]

81. no you are missing the point

the babys already cleaned
i just left that out
i didnt want to offend the pro baby folks

its a play on a virgin islands jerk style bbq
its the bay leaf they grow there that makes this work so well
it has almost a mace flavor and smell

[phrigndumass]

82. That definitely sounds like some great baby!

:rofl:

[DeadElephant_ORG]

39. SUMMARY: in Clinton’s best case scenario, she would still need 2/3 of all remaining superdelegates

Summary:
in Clinton’s best case scenario, she would still need 2/3 of all remaining superdelegates to be nominated.

...ain't no way in hell.

[phrigndumass]

40. New primary in Michigan on June 3?

The state of Michigan is wanting to hold the re-do primary on June 3. Let's look closer at this "what if" ... (I've been sooooo waiting for these scenarios to see some light so I could do this!)

This is SCENARIO 4 in the OP.

Regarding Pledged Delegates:
Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 61.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.5%, in all remaining contests

This means Senator Clinton would need to amass 61.5% of all the remaining pledged delegates in every state, including Michigan, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. Her campaign has done this in only one state so far. Senator Obama would need 38.5% of all the remaining pledged delegates to maintain his pledged delegate lead.

Regarding Superdelegates based on 50/50 pledged delegates from here on out:
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 249 of 346, or 72.0% of remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 132 of 346, or 38.2% of remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

Regarding Superdelegates based on 55/45 (advantage Clinton) pledged delegates from here on out:
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 214 of 346, or 61.8% of remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 167 of 346, or 48.3% of remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

Discuss :D

[VenusRising]

41. I'm in awe of the Math-iness in this thread!

:thumbsup:

:yourock:

:applause:

:toast:

:kick:

Rec'd!

[phrigndumass]

49. I officially rock! (LOL)

Hope you are seeing the truthiness behind it all!

:toast:

[cliffordu]

43. SHHEESHHH

BUMP!!!!!!!

:yourock:

:kick:

[MzShellG]

45. Thank you, phrigndumass. You did an awesome job.

I feel better after looking at the numbers. It's been a tough week for my guy. This makes me rememeber that the delegates are what really counts. I know Barack can turn this negativity around.

[phrigndumass]

47. YW and thank you!

All the negativity is really bad for both candidates and the entire party.

:hi:

[HCE SuiGeneris]

48. Next time, could you please be a little bit more thorough in your research?

:evilgrin:

K & R

[phrigndumass]

50. Don't you think it's BS-proof enough?

LOL ...

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

51. The O's are on ...

Good night!

[AzDar]

53. K & R...

:kick:

[mmonk]

55. I'm glad someone else is doing the math.

I'm a delegate to my county convention in NC and haven't even looked past the district level.

[phrigndumass]

57. Have you seen any polls from NC?

I've only seen one poll from NC, from about a month ago. It showed Obama +8.

:hi:

[mmonk]

58. Not recently but my feel is that one is about right.

[phrigndumass]

60. Thanks!

I've also been digging around for polls for other upcoming contests. Not much out there yet, except for Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

[PylesMalfunction]

59. This is great!

I really appreciate the work you've done!

[phrigndumass]

61. Thanks! Great handle ...

Is your handle a reference to Full Metal Jacket?

:hi:

[PylesMalfunction]

74. Holy Jesus!

You better believe it! :7

[grantcart]

64. are you going to be updating as each of the 99 Iowa county conventions results come in?

(kick camoflauged as a smartass comment)

[phrigndumass]

65. LOL ... I'm watching as YOU do that!

Thanks for all you do, grantcart!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5094080

[Kablooie]

67. So are you saying that Hillary's got it in the bag?

Or is the phrase "she should bag it?"

I get mixed up about these things.

[grantcart]

69. ever wonder how they are able to get 50/50 gender at the convention

Here is how they do it in Iowa

http://www.iowademocrats.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/1012213

[Spazito]

71. Wow! Excellent work!

It certainly tells the real story of where each candidate is and the mathematical probabilities of where they will end up.

Thank you for doing this, I wish the Democratic party would acknowledge these statistical probabilities and the super-delegates do what they need to do soon instead of allowing the damage to both candidates AND the party to deepen even more than it has to this point.

[phrigndumass]

72. Thanks Spazito!

Trust me, the Democratic party has these statistics, as do each candidate's campaign. They'll work the angles that best benefit their candidates. Senator Clinton's options have dwindled down to only one angle left: popular votes. And they're down almost a million votes there. They're grasping, trying to cling to this angle, to avoid the ultimate truth that their campaign this time around just wasn't good enough to win. Once it sinks in and they are able to accept this truth, they should do the responsible thing to the party and concede.

[Major Hogwash]

73. When Obama came to Boise, a 60 year old Republican who had voted for Nixon twice said he was going

to vote for Obama because he liked his message of hope, his clear stance against the Iraq War - before it started, and he wanted to be a part of making history.


They even quoted him in the local newspaper.

[grantcart]

76. Looks like you can add 7 to Obama and take one from Clinton

[phrigndumass]

77. Sunday a.m. - Looks like Obama +9, Clinton +1, Edwards -10

Looking at DCW's last post at 10:45 p.m. last night.

This means Senator Obama will need to gain nine less superdelegates to win the nomination.

Thanks for tracking this, grantcart!

:woohoo:

[phrigndumass]

78. bump for exposure for this last bit of info

[BumRushDaShow]

79. Thanks for the detailed analysis! Alot of work!!

:thumbsup:

Also I am :rofl: at your screen name once I sounded it out. LOL

[phrigndumass]

80. A freeper gave me that name

I was arguing a point with statistics to back it up, and he called me a friggin' dumbass. That was the gist of his argument.

If arguing with logic is what a friggin' dumbass does, I'll wear that name proudly!

:dunce:

[IndianaGreen]

83. As Hillary would say, who cares about the math?

What's left for her to do after the kitchen sink failed to work? Now, that's what I am really worried about, how much damage can she cause to prevent Obama from winning the nomination and the Presidency?

[Spazito]

84. At this point, given the facts inherent in these statistics....

it seems to me the question is how much more damage is the Democratic party willing to sustain before this is ended. The super-delegates WILL be the ones to end this, they should do it soon, imo, by stating who they support. Waiting until the convention only serves the republicans and further damages the successful Democratic candidate making it harder to win the general election.

[120cars]

85. Obama supporters used to hate superdelegates

Now that they are on their side, they are Gods and Godesses.

Go figure.

[phrigndumass]

86. Who did you used to be before you got tombstoned?

:rofl: