Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 09:53 PM
Original message |
New Hampshire poll: Clark 3 points shy of Kerry |
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From http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/This is a rolling poll that's been running since 12/26. In that time, Kerry has dropped 4 points, while Clark has gone up 1. It now stands at: Dean 37 Kerry 16 Clark 13 Lieberman 6 Gephardt 6 Edwards 4 Kucinich 2
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giantrobot_2000
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Thu Jan-01-04 09:56 PM
Response to Original message |
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Fuck it, I'm going to fly out and volunteer for a week. Good news, go Wes!
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MariaS
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
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confirmed my flight to NH. Can't wait to help the General.
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giantrobot_2000
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:00 PM
Original message |
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Hey MariaS, when are you getting in?
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MariaS
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Fri Jan-02-04 12:15 AM
Response to Original message |
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I'm flying in next thursday the 8th. I'm excited to be with all you great people. It's gonna be a blast.
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Dookus
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Fri Jan-02-04 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #45 |
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I'm jealous. But NH is a LONG ways from California...
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lancdem
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Thu Jan-01-04 09:56 PM
Response to Original message |
2. I would love to see Clark pass Kerry and finish no worse |
jeter
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Fri Jan-02-04 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
47. If Clark finishes second in NH |
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He will get a boost nationally.
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shivaji
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Fri Jan-02-04 01:57 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
50. If Clark finishes anywhere close to Dean, he is then electable.... |
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otherwise if he finishes a distant 2nd or 3rd to Dean in NH, IA, AZ & SC, then I am afraid it only means one thing....Clark can't excite the democratic base. So, if he loses a significant portion of the base, it is extremely unlikely that he can make up the deficit from republican votes.
If Clark finishes way behind Dean and still is nominated, I will stay at home in the GE totally discouraged, and save on gas and wear and tear on my car.
We will soon find out. My expectations are that Dean wins the nomination, and there will be much excitement on our side in November.
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KittyWampus
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Thu Jan-01-04 09:57 PM
Response to Original message |
3. There's Something Torturous About Following A Poll Daily |
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but thanks for posting! :)
Happy New Year Fellow DU'ers... we're going to kick Junior out on his :kick:
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
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nah, it's easy. Just click a link and the numbers are right there.
I'm mostly curious, naturally, to see how Clark's doing. I'm happy to see he's rising.
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Kathleen04
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:02 PM
Response to Original message |
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Dean is holding steady at 37.
Kerry has been dropping one point each time the poll is conducted.
The number of undecideds is also on the decline.
I'm glad Clark is inching towards 2nd..Go Clark!
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Cheswick2.0
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:03 PM
Response to Original message |
6. Kerry is not playing it very smart here |
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It is obvious he needs to go after Clark not Dean. Clark is the one who makes him irrelevant.
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
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maybe he shouldn't go after anybody at all.
But I agree with you that if Kerry doesn't come in 2nd in NH, he's probably out of the race.
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Kathleen04
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
12. I don't see a scenario where.. |
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Kerry can remain in the race for long.
He looks like he may come in 3rd in Iowa, possibly still retain 2nd in NH. But, his organization in the February 3rd states doesn't seem good..he's polling 4th in many of them.
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IndianaGreen
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
10. I have been saying for some time that Clark made Kerry irrelevant |
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Unlike Kerry, Clark is not tainted by the IWR vote and he is a true hero all the way around.
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JI7
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
19. he isn't irrelevant to me |
IndianaGreen
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #19 |
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I will defend your right to stand by your candidate. I will even come to Kerry's defense if that scumbag Ted Koppel starts talking about Kerry's "vanity campaign" as he did Kucinich.
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IndianaGreen
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:45 PM
Response to Original message |
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Go back to Georgetown and meditate on your IWR vote, and on the 10,000 dead and wounded that resulted from that vote.
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Brian_Expat
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Thu Jan-01-04 10:58 PM
Response to Original message |
11. Look for Kerry to hit Clark with attacks |
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Similar to what Kerry did to Dean last week.
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IndianaGreen
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
13. If Kerry does that, he will sink further in the polls |
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Heck, Kerry is polling behind Sharpton in a nationwide poll!
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dae
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Fri Jan-02-04 02:47 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
54. Kerry, Gephardt, and Leiberman still don't understand that the average |
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Democrat is PO'd, not over it, and wants to take it to the neoCONS, not molly coddle the twits. :kick:
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Kathleen04
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
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I hope he comes up with something creative. ;)
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gulliver
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
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Kerry's best bet is to pry voters from Dean and undecideds. Kerry knows he has to erase the current Dean plurality or no one else has a chance.
Also, it's really hard to attack Clark legitimately. Clark is espousing exactly the values that Kerry stands for. If I had to bet, I would say Kerry and Clark probably respect each other a great deal.
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Turkw
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
20. I think all the candidates like each other for the most part, that's good |
Northwind
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:10 PM
Response to Original message |
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Clark only 3 points behind the guy that is gettinbg beat 2-1! Miraculous!
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
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don't understand the pleasure you derive in doing this.
Clearly, the 2nd place finish in NH is desired by both Clark and Kerry, and will have a strong impact on the rest of the race. What's wrong with discussing that here? Why do you have to crap on every thread? Do you think it helps your candidate? Clue: It doesn't!
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WillyBrandt
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
23. Amen, brother (sister?)! |
Northwind
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
25. And I do not understand |
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That you guys get so excited about your semi-democratic candidate battling it out for the place of first loser. :shrug:
And my candidate? He does not need any help. In case you had not noticed, he's that guy at the very top of the list. The one with more than a third of the support in a field of 9 people.
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
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that the game's over now and we should all go home and wait for Dean's coronation. That's not going to happen. We're going to have primaries. Most political observers agree that if Kerry doesn't place 2nd in NH, he's in very serious trouble.
And YOUR candidate has lost 8 points in NH in the last two weeks. Things are fluid... things are changing... keep an open mind ;)
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Northwind
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #26 |
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Dean is the only possible option. Anyone else gets nominated, the Dean people stay home and watch all of you cringe in horror while Bush gets another 4 years.
Nominate Dean or give Bush the White House.
Your choice.
NBD '04
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #28 |
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a handful of spiteful, petulant people will stay home. I'm not too concerned about them, to be totally honest. If Clark gets the nomination, he'll bring in 1000x the voters that stay home in a fit of pique.
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Northwind
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #30 |
32. The number of Clark supporters |
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Does not even come close to the number of us "petulent, spiteful people."
This race is ours. You support Dean or you get Bush. Period.
NBD '04
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #32 |
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election by fiat now. We tried that last time - I wasn't wild about the results.
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Name removed
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #33 |
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Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #34 |
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urge you to put me on ignore.
You spend a lot of time following me around threads for someone who thinks my opinion is irrelevant.
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Northwind
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #36 |
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I do not recall even speaking to you before.
But then all Clark supporters do is rehash the same tired drivel over and over, so who can tell them apart?
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #39 |
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your thought-provoking posts. :eyes:
This is a new poll, with new data. Hardly re-hashed.
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Kool Kitty
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Fri Jan-02-04 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
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Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 03:00 AM by Kool Kitty
Yes, I've have noticed that your candidate is at the very top of the list. I have just chosen not to support him. (If he gets the nomination, then he gets my vote, though.) And until he gets the nomination (if and when), I'll vote for whoever I choose to. I know that your reply wasn't to me, but as a Clark supporter, I just wanted to let you know. Your candidate may not need our help now, but he may just need us later. Maybe a little less condescension would be better? It's just a thought.
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Dookus
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Fri Jan-02-04 02:54 AM
Response to Reply #53 |
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don't you understand it's a one-way thing? If we don't support Dean AS OF TODAY, they'll take their ball and go home!
Oh wait... I think we can afford the couple dozen lost votes of the Nobody-But-Dean contingent.
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Walt Starr
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:12 PM
Response to Original message |
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I'm routing for Kerry to take second in New Hampshire.
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0rganism
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:14 PM
Response to Original message |
21. Looks like Kerry's been dropping like a stone. |
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while Kucinich support doubled! (hehe, don't I wish it meant something)
CMB and Sharpton are dropping off the map, which is kind of a shame.
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Kathleen04
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:21 PM
Response to Original message |
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Interesting info about the Gephardt campaign in 1988 underneath the NH poll in the link:
"At an equivalent point in time in 1988, Dick Gephardt was at 3% in the New Hampshire Poll daily tracking. After his win in Iowa on February 8, 1988, Gephardt jumped 8 percentage points in 2 days in New Hampshire to 11%. (If those with a favorable opinion of Gephardt but undecided in the 2004 race were to vote for Gephardt, he would pick up 8 percentage points.) Over the final weekend of the 1988 campaign, Gephardt picked up another 6 percentage points to end the final day of tracking at 17%. He finished second in New Hampshire with 20% of the vote (Michael Dukakis came in first with 36% of the vote - his ballot preference stayed at 35% in the week after Iowa - and Paul Simon came in third with 17% of the vote)."
I wonder how far a Gephardt win in Iowa could propell him in NH in 2004.
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #24 |
35. That's a good point... |
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The downside to Clark not competing in Iowa is that he can't get a boost from it. Kerry and Gephardt can.
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DemDogs
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:28 PM
Response to Original message |
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THE single most unreliable poll. Surprised that Braun is not winning.
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
29. Why is it unreliable? |
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Are the trends it indicates wrong? Are they making up answers? Do you have anything to offer other than this?
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Clark4VotingRights
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:38 PM
Response to Original message |
31. How long has Kerry been in the race? He's refusing federal matching funds |
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How long as Clark been in the race?
Clark's standing, and fund raising, is nothing short of extraordinary. He's a great and brilliant man, with a good heart, a moral core, and the most impressive resume I've ever seen.
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Northwind
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #31 |
37. If his fund raising is so great |
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Why is he stealing money from people who have no desire to support him?
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Dookus
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #37 |
38. I saw you make this assertion elsewhere... |
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what do you mean by it? How is he stealing money? From whom? Should we call the FBI?
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Northwind
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #38 |
40. He is taking federal funds |
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Edited on Thu Jan-01-04 11:46 PM by Northwind
Tax money. From people that do not support him. That is stealing. It is not like taxes going towards good cause or public works, it is nothing more than stealing from the mouths of children in order for him to excercise his vanity.
Even Kerry did not stoop so low. He may be tanking, but at least he used his own money rather than stealing others.
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Name removed
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Thu Jan-01-04 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #40 |
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Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
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LuminousX
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Fri Jan-02-04 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #40 |
43. I disagree with this argument |
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Yes, by taking federal money, Clark is taking MY money and I don't support him, BUT I support public financed elections. I don't have a problem with this.
Just means I have to give Dean just a bit extra.
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Dookus
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Fri Jan-02-04 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #43 |
44. No he's not taking YOUR money... |
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unless you specifically CHOSE to contribute to the fund.
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SahaleArm
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Fri Jan-02-04 01:12 AM
Response to Reply #44 |
48. Yep, just don't check the three dollar box... |
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If you support public financing - check the box. If everyone was funded equally with only public financing, who would win? It won't happen but it is an interesting question.
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Nashyra
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Fri Jan-02-04 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #48 |
49. I'm going to NH on the 23 |
Dookus
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Fri Jan-02-04 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #49 |
democratreformed
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Fri Jan-02-04 02:36 AM
Response to Reply #49 |
52. Hope you have fun, Nashyra |
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I went Dec 5. It was a great experience.
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moz4prez
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Fri Jan-02-04 07:01 AM
Response to Reply #52 |
57. what's a democratreformed, anyway? |
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is that like a reformed Jew? :)
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democratreformed
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Fri Jan-02-04 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #57 |
58. I'm no good with nicknames |
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so I decided to steal my sisters :). Hers was ladyreformed (don't know what that means either). I put in the wrong e-mail so that account is floating out in cyberspace somewhere and I had to come up with a new one. This was the best I could do :).
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stickdog
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Fri Jan-02-04 05:49 AM
Response to Original message |
56. The moral to the story. |
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Attacking Dean of basically nothing hurts you a lot more than it hurts Dean.
The only ones it helps are the candidates who aren't constantly attacking.
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Padraig18
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Fri Jan-02-04 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #56 |
61. Kerry is sinking like a stone. |
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The wagon's in the ditch, Senator...
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Sean Reynolds
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Fri Jan-02-04 03:48 PM
Response to Original message |
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Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 03:49 PM by Sean Reynolds
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Kathleen04
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Fri Jan-02-04 06:20 PM
Response to Original message |
60. 2 points shy of Kerry now |
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New poll today: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/Kerry, Edwards, and Gephardt have all lost 1 point--those points went straight into the undecided column. Everyone else is holding steady.
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