Prediction: Kerry wins by 7

[liberalpragmatist]

Final popular vote results:
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 1%

Electoral college results:
Kerry: 314
Bush: 224

* Kerry wins all the Gore states exc. Wisconsin and Iowa, which he narrowly loses. Picks up Arizona, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Missouri (bellwether: gone with winner every election since 1904 exc. 1956). Narrowly fails to win in Nevada or West Virginia.

The relatively lopsided 7-pt margin is a reflection of how most presidential re-election bids wind up. Although they're often quite close for much of the race, someone pulls ahead by election day and usually the winner winds up with a comfortable margin. These are elections that reflect on the current occupant - for many people, it's a straight up-or-down vote on the person at head. That's why so few presidential reelection bids have ended in a close race. The only examples in modern political history are Truman and Ford, and neither was elected to their first terms. Before then, this century, only Woodrow Wilson won a narrow 2nd term victory. S

So I think that Kerry will pull away with it in the end. I believe it will be relatively even until the final 2 or 3 weeks, when there will be a slow movement towards Kerry. Final polls will have Kerry 3 or 4 pts ahead, but within the margin of error.

As for the House: Republican control, but we'll pick up a few seats.
Senate: 52 Democrats + Jeffords, 48 Republicans

UPDATE: People might say a 7 pt margin is too great. But remember, Gore won the popular vote by abt .5%. The final margin was something like Bush 48, Gore, 48.5, Nader, 2.5 - that's a 51% center-left victory. A gain of 3% in the center-left is not that unlikely. Likewise, a decline of Bush by 2% is not a huge margin either. A 7-pt victory (by either side, mind you) is very possible.

[cheezus]

1. as it gets closer to nov we should have a EV pool

[cally]

2. I agree

I don't think it will be a razor thin margin in the final vote. I think folks will start paying attention in the fall and will break for Kerry. As long as he keeps it close through the summer, I think he will win.

Also, if there is not violence during the protests during the Republican convention. No matter who is at fault, Dems will be blamed and it may swing voters to the incumbent. I suspect that there will be infiltrators at the protests trying to stir things up.

[Gman]

3. Unless there's something I'm totally missing...

I think you're pretty much right on the money and I agree with your analysis.

Someone posted a Dick Morris column the other they where he cited a statistic that the undecideds usually break 85-15 against the incumbent. This is a well known, standard rule of thumb. Bush's problem right now is after spending almost $50 million in ads he hasn't moved things one iota away from Kerry. Reasons for the lack of movement include the developments in Iraq. Rove et al know as well as anyone they need to move those decideds now or else its over.

Kerry's doing the right thing right now with his "rope-a-dope" (as someone described it the other day). There's no sense in Kerry pushing too hard now, more than 6 months before the election. Kerry needs to, and I think will, surge right after the convention when people will finally get to really know him and then peak just before the election.

Of course, the GOP convention, coming as late as it will, gives Bush a boost into late September when things will pull close again. That assumes Bush gets a 15-18% boost. If Bush doesn't get significantly more than a 10% boost, we'll know then he's toast and you can maybe increase your 7% to 10% or even 11%.

[eumesmo]

4. 7% would be a very large win

which would correspond to a wider victory in the elctoral college.

[BlueCollar]

5. you like Kerry to take Arizona?

I'm not sure we'll be able to hold on to New Mexico...

[NMDemDist2]

17. i am walking my shoes off over here

and i think we really have a shot at getting AZ back in the blue :)

[onehandle]

6. Pessimist.

I predict Kerry wins by 97.

Kerry: 97%
Bush: 2%
Nader: 1%

Electoral college results:
Kerry: 538

January 21, 2005. Bush, his Cabinet, Rove, and all of their relatives are deported to Saudi Arabia.

Or maybe France.

[59millionmorons]

7. No

No 6%, definitly only 6%.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

8. I see Kerry winning in Iowa but not Arizona.

Kerry: 51%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 2%
Moore: 1%

Kerry gets: 293 Electoral Votes.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sangha]

11. Have you got a point?

Even better, do you have an opinion?

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Nicholas_J]

10. I am predicting

That this election will be far closer than the 2000 election, but a Kerry win will be by somewhere between 2 and 4 percent. There is also a likelihood that Kerry may win by an electoral college win as well without the popular vote, as his strategy seems to be to try to sew up that possibility first before going on to attempt to win the popular vote, ask Kerry has a sure lead in the majority of the large states that you must win to get them most electoral votes.

Right now we have sold Blue in 8 states giving Kerry 155 electoral votes, more than half way to a win with ponly 8 states. Kerry has maintained major leads over Bush in Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Michigan, Minnesota, and California. Kerry heads in two of the 3 largest states for EV count, California and New York, with BUsh leading in one of those Texas.
Bush on the other hand has solid red states in 13 states giving him 122 electoral votes.

Kerry has only 2 states that are leaining Democratic for 31 Electoral votes.

Bush has 5 states leaning Republican for 61 electoral votes.

It is taking Bush 18 states to get his current 183 electoral votes in Rep or leaning Rep states,

While Kerry has 186 in 11 states, with fewer of those states "leaning states".

Illinois is listed as "leaning" towards Kerry, though in all polls Kerry has maintained leads well beyond the margin of error forthose polls. Illinois will likely be a state that becomes solid blue very soon. Maryland is another "leaning state" but is a bit closer.

Washington has been considered leaning towards Kerry until the last few weeks, but a recent poll has made it too close to tell, even though Kerry has been ahead of Bush by more than the margin of error in every poll in that state so far.


I think Kerry may actually be attempting to make certain of an electoral win by stringly focusing on the 11 states that are either strongly leaning towards him, and those just leaning, and attempting wins in the highest electoral vote count states that are still too close to tell. In Ohiom the economy, and in particular, jobs is the only issue of impoartnace for this election, and Kerry does better in that area than Bush in every poll. Kerry is also focusing heeavily in Florida, and polls have him neck and neck with Bush in this state.

If he can win both Ohio and Florida, that gives Kerry 60 percent of electoral votes he needs on top of the 186 he currently holds in order to win. After that all he would need is 22 electoral votes to win in the electoral college, and Kerry has been ahead of Bush in Washington State in every poll taken in that state, by more than the margin of error in all but the latest Elway Poll in that state.
A win in Washington brings Kerry 11 electoral votes, or half of the the 22 needed if he can win Ohio and FLorida.

Iowa is another state in which Kerry has been far ahead of Bush until one recent poll, In the most recent poll in that state, Kerry is still ahead of Bush, but only by one point. But Iowa gives Kerry another 7 electoral votes. Kerry now also leads Bush in New Hampshire. And that is a state that may likely stay in his corner. That gives the 4 electoral votes he needs to finally have enough electoral votes to win in the electoral college.

So with the states that Kerry is now leading in, and has been leading in for the last several months, winning Florida, Ohio, Washington,Iowa and New Hampshire will give Kerry a win with the electoral college, without even winning the popular vote.

His campaign strategy seems to be leaning heavilt in this direction.

[eumesmo]

21. I had trouble following your post

You wrote, "this election will be far closer than the 2000 election". Given that that 2000 election was perhaps the closest in history (certainly one of the closest), that this election would be "far closer" is impossible.

7 states were very close last time: OR, NM, MN, IA, WI, FL and NH. Of these, all but FL and NH went to Gore. Kerry needs to keep all the Gore states and add either OH or FL to win. This is the most likely scenario for Kerry to win. Winning other states would be gravy.

Given the margin of error was so small in the 5 states listed above that Gore won, for Kerry to win the election without winning the popular vote is unlikely, as the close states are likely to move to Bush if the popular vote moves that way. What makes an EV win without winning the popular vote even more difficult for Kerry is the redistricting which has resulted in an 8 EV swing for Bush.

Kerry's best bet to win, IMO, is to win OH and keep the Gore states, including PN of course.

[fujiyama]

13. My guess

Kerry gets 49% of the poular vote, to Bush's 47. Nader will get 1.5% or so, and the libertarians will have a stronger showing than usual at 1%. At this point I'm pretty certain that Kerry will win the popular vote. He's going to rack up huge totals in NY, CA, and IL. I say this because these states have a very vibrant liberal activist base and they will come out in droves.

I'm also going to give Kerry the edge for the EC, but it's too close. Of the states Gore won, I'm mostly worried about PA, but hey if Gore could do it...

The thing is, I honestly never believed Gore would win the 2000 election since he was trailing behind Bush in so many polls for a very long time. I was amazed it was as close as it was. Infortunately, it was so close, the GOP was able to steal it.

[TruthIsAll]

14. Kerry will get at least 54%. For all the reasons you mentioned.

But it will be a near landslide as all the Bush scandals come home to roost in the public consciousness.

Don't forget:

Energized Dems + Defecting Repubs + Muslims + Military + VFW + Single women + 9/11 + Iraq fiasco + No WMD + $150B Medicare scandal + $700M Iraq contra scandal + Treasonous WH Plame outing + JOBLESS + Massive deficit + Unified Dems + Kerry vs. Bush AWOL + Fahrenheeit 9/11 + Woodward + Wilson + Clarke + overtime pay cuts + casualties in Iraq + Bring 'em on + Mission accomplished + Diebold Fraudsters + Kerry fundraising juggernaut + The Day After Tommorrow (new Global Warming flick) + Lies Lies Lies =

BUSH IS TOAST

[PROGRESSIVE1]

16. KICK!

:kick:

[NMDemDist2]

18. and don't forget Michael Moore Fahrenheit 911 due out this summer n/t

[quinnox]

15. I think Kerry will win Florida

And the election will come down to Ohio. Whoever wins that will be the president.

I think Bush still has a slight edge from an odds standpoint, but it is close and can go either way depending upon many factors that can't be foreseen at this point.

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Maybe the 7 pt. Margain is possible but not all of those states...

New Hampshire will probably go to Kerry and maybe Missouri, but Arizona, Florida, and Ohio all lean to the right.

[shivaji]

20. I would love to get into an election pool...

which can also generate some revenue for DU.

It should be run by and administered by DU.

It could be similar to a baseball pool where you
select a square(s) based on how many states would
be won by Kerry and Bush. The winning square gets
all of the designated proceeds minus cut by DU.
The winning dollars can be divided equally amongst
all holding that square.

[IronLionZion]

22. I certainly hope so

there is still a lot of uncalculated risk out there such as BBV and the October surprise. There is definitely going to be some cheating on both sides but it won't happen in Florida - everyone will be watching it like a hawk. I'm worried about them cheating in Ohio and PA.

Philly claims to have ridiculously high voter turnouts because their citizens care, but most of us know the real reason and turn a blind eye since it helps the Dems. What do we do if the Republicans do that on a much wider scale to cinch the win?

I wouldn't be too confident but I'm still optimistic.