National polls don't tell the story

[Nicholas_J]

By Dan Payne | April 24, 2004

BIG KAHUNA. President Bush surfs waves of bad publicity from 9/11 hearings, runaway death and disorder in Iraq, and three books on his obsession with Iraq. Result: Jumps into lead in national polls. But national polls like average national temperature. US mean for April is 67 degrees. But Thursday it was 80 degrees in Boston, 54 in Chicago, 43 in Denver. National numbers don't show local conditions in swing states. But national polls do drive conventional wisdom. CW went from John Kerry cruising to George Bush rallying.


ABCs of swing states. Proving national temperature theory, ABC/Washington Post poll showed much tighter race in swing states than rest of country. Kerry leads Bush 46-44 percent in 17 battleground states. Bush leads 48-43 nationally with Mr. Consumer swiping 6 points. In new state polls, Kerry leads by one in Iowa and trails by one in Florida.


http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/04/24/national_polls_dont_tell_the_story/