James Carville says 3.75% of voters will swing the election....

[chiburb]

Carville & Matalin were keynote speakers at a conference I attended over the weekend. They were funny, but the one point that hit home was by Carville:

If you live in Illinois, New York, or any other already 'decided' state, your vote WILL NOT MATTER. Yes, it will feel good to vote for Kerry, but it WON'T matter!
This election will be decided by the 12 or so 'swing states', that almost all of the money will be spent there, almost all the campaign appearances will be there, and that 'there' consists of 3.75% of the total votes to be cast.

I know there have been many threads about this over the last year, but it explains why I saw so many Kerry-bashing ads at the conference (in Arizona), but haven't seen one at home (Illinois).

He also predicts that 2008 will see a true 3rd party movement that will change politics as we know it in this country.

(Don't know if I'll make it back here later, but I'll try... work is calling.)

[NMDemDist2]

1. was Arizona one of the states he mentioned? n/t

[w13rd0]

2. It's damned unfortunate...

...that the 3.75% he is referring to are as stupid as bags of shit. And if our vote doesn't matter, why should we bother? Isn't it a betrayal of the purpose of a representative democracy to make the votes of the other 96.25% irrelevant?

[deminflorida]

3. FLASH - FLORIDA could change this!!!

Carville is correct, but it's currently very close here in Florida and that is why what I posted last night is so very important.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=509673&mesg_id=509715

Screw the Cubans, they're going to vote Republican anyway.

If anyone on this board has any connections to the Kerry Campaign, then tell him to start courting the Polish Americans in this state...
Convince them they will get a fair-shake on this Visa issue and Florida is extremly winnable.

There are 429,691 Polish Americans in Florida as of 2000. Roughly 2.7% of Florida's population....The Majority have voted in the past conservative....

It's 27 electoral votes and this one issue would put the GOP into a panic mode. They lose Florida and that's it they're cooked.

Poland is an EU country now, Kerry says they go into the Visa Waiver Pilot program and that's it...that's all he has to do...

[beyurslf]

4. I live in KS so I know full well what it feels like to think your vote

doesn't matter. Here is what I tell friends who say that:

Being elected in the electoral college gets you in the White House. But winning the vote gives you a mandate. And getting more than 50% an even stronger mandate. Bush didn't. Clinton didn't.

Every vote matters if we want Kerry to win the college AND have more than 50% of the vote.

[Kukesa]

5. Battleground Ohio?

I'm assuming Ohio is one of those states. We're ready to help and many of us have emailed Kerry's campaign to beg for paid, professional campaign staff and a real headquarters.

We'll battle but we need support, too.

Kukesa

[democratreformed]

6. Well, my primary vote has not even been cast yet, so it

certainly does not count. Our state's Democratic chair says we are one of those swing states. I may not be a "swing" voter, but it sure feels good to know we can actually work to make a difference with other voters in our state.

[zbdent]

7. I would suggest that Carville not encourage Dem voters to "not vote"

for Kerry. Wouldn't send a good message, and it still could matter.

[zbdent]

8. I wouldn't mind a true 3rd party in 2008

if it would drive a stake through the heart of the Republican party in 2010.

1929 nearly killed the Repubs, Nixon dealt a telling blow, and the Ayatollah Khomeni was Reagan's secret running mate in 1980.

If Iraq can hit the Repukes hard, this might just scatter them to 3rd party status again.