Zogby - McLame: 44%, Obama/Clinton: 39%, Nader: 5%

[NJSecularist]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1467

UTICA, New York – Riding high after locking up his party’s presidential nomination, Republican John McCain of Arizona has moved ahead of both of his potential Democratic Party rivals in a national general election test, the latest Zogby telephone survey shows.

Perhaps profiting from the continuing political battle across the aisle, McCain would defeat Hillary Clinton of New York by six points and Barack Obama of Illinois by 5 points, the survey shows. Clinton and Obama are locked in a tight battle to win the Democratic Party nomination, a fight that has grown nasty at times recently and threatens to continue on all summer long until the party’s national convention in Denver this August.

The telephone survey of 1,001 likely voters nationwide was conducted by live operators calling from Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York on March 13-14, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

You know, I don't think that Nader has any chance to get 5% of the voter. But I think due to our party's constant bickering and in-fighting, some voters will begin to feel disenfranchised and we are beginning to make Nader more of a factor in this year's election. I think he could come close to 2000 level support.

[depakid]

1. "our party's constant bickering"

Not that I give Zogby's poll an ounce of credibility, but considering the performance of Congress these past 15 months (actually- the Dem "leadership" in Congress for the past 15 years) it wouldn't surprise me that people would register their disgust in the form of a 3rd party vote (or in an opinion about who they'd rather vote for).

[NJSecularist]

3. Exactly.

I don't think 2% is out of the question for Nader. And that type of support for him will give us real problems in the general election.

Zogby isn't the most reliable poster, but I do think Nader's support is growing.

[LoZoccolo]

2. We need to constantly fight Nader, but don't despair about the 5% figure.

It was 6% at some point in 2004, and he ended up with much less come the general election.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4627958

[rocktivity]

4. The GOP has its nominee, the Dems do not

Get thee behind me, polls! UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[TheCowsCameHome]

5. 5%? Wow.

Are there really that many out on day passes?

[WCGreen]

21. He's not even going to get on the ballot in many states...

[UALRBSofL]

6. I don't trust these numbers at all

I would say Nader would get 0.5% at best. Isn't that what he got in 04? If anything his number would drop from 04.

[NJSecularist]

10. It will definitely go down.

But I think he could get closer to his 2000 numbers this year, especially given the infighting we are having within the party.

In 2000, he got 2.5% of the vote nationally.
In 2004, he got 0.4% of the vote nationally.

I think this year he could get 1.5% or 2%.

[joeybee12]

7. zogby is always wrong

no way nader gets 5%

[NJSecularist]

11. He won't get 5%, but he could get 2%

at that will have a real effect on the election.

[joeybee12]

16. I don't even see that this year...

...Nader is old news...only people who wouldn't vote otherwise will vote for him. I expect his 5% to go down very soon.

[Thepricebreaker]

33. I do with all the dems fighting with one another.. the republicans are now behind McCain

[Auntie Bush]

8. Without Nader it would probably be 44 to 44. Damn his hide!

[adoraz]

9. Is that idiot Nader really running again this year?

Was that a rumor or is it true?

[OmahaBlueDog]

12. Even if the numbers are to be believed

we are a long, long way away from November....a lot can (and will) happen.

I think no matter whom we nominate (even if we go with a unity ticket) we will have an uphill battle because mainstream America still has to get comfy with the woman/African American President concept.

McCain, OTOH, is likely to have to defend GOP economic policy against the backdrop of economic meltdown. He will have to defend continuation of a wildly unpopular war, he will have to appease the radical elements of his own party, and (most importantly) he has to get people excited about voting for him. I see maybe 1 of those 4 taking place, and it's not "getting folks excited.'

[TexasBushwhacker]

14. Nader will have a hard time getting on many state's ballots

In 2000, he was the Green Party's candidate. In 2004, he ran as an independent. There aren't many voters who vote for 3rd party candidates, and there are even fewer who will write someone in. The thing is, if Clinton and Obama continue to attack each other instead of McCain .... geez, I don't want to think about it.

[OmahaBlueDog]

24. Whoever wins our nomination will ...

battle tested, thoroughly vetted, organized, and ready for damn near anything the dirty tricksters can dish.

[earthlover]

13. I think the visciousness of the Dem campaign is hurting both Obama and Hillary

I would not be at all surprised to see McCain's lead gradually increase as the Dem fight continues. By Denver Time, it may be even larger just in time for a divided convention. I guess that is the scenario of a hillary "win".

[DuaneBidoux]

15. 5% Nader?! But then when was the last time Zogby called one right?

[papau]

17. I'm curious as to how McCain/Romney polls against Clinton/Obama and Obama/Clinton

[mdmc]

18. dems answer "Nader" in hopes that the triangulators will be more

progressive

[AndyTiedye]

39. And Instead They Write off the Progressive Vote and Move Even Further to the Right

[mdmc]

41. .. we continue to lose

and never learn

[Nitrogenica]

19. ANd this will encourage those on the rabid right to be crazier than ever.

Very very nice.

There's a long way to November.

So now can we start talking about issues that matter?

That's what the people want.

[JVS]

20. LOL!

Nader strikes again!

[Divine Discontent]

22. I fully blame Hillary Clinton - she is by no means as humble & graceful as John Edwards EOM

[Muttocracy]

23. problem is knowing the state-by-state effect

Since we're still stuck with the electoral college, national polls get less and less useful. Nader's support might be coming in states where the Dem % is still > Repub. % even with Nader pulling some votes away (e.g., 48% Dem, 45% Repub, 7% Nader)

I also think some of those are novelty responses who couldn't even explain who Nader is.

[OmahaBlueDog]

25. You're exactly right

"National polls" are meaningless -- ask Gore & Kerry (chicanery notwithstanding)

In a perfect works, you need all polls for all states. As a practical matter, you want the 13 or so swing states that usually decide this thing.

[Muttocracy]

27. Nader's support last time was in NY, CA, MA, MN, IL, etc. nt

[Divine Discontent]

28. good point, it may be inconsequential support

and btw, Edwards won every debate.... once Biden left. ;)

[Muttocracy]

29. and once Edwards left...

poof - what issues?

Foreign policy expertise is my main hangup, thus liked Biden, Dodd, Richardson the best. Also wish Edwards had more experience doing the progressive stuff he talks about. Hope he finds a way in or working with the next admin. to make it happen, and glad he has some delegates to work with.

Biden and Edwards both suffered from lack of media coverage - in Edwards' case, even after he finished 2nd in Iowa!!, so I have a ton of sympathy for Edwards supporters.

[Divine Discontent]

38. true...

you know how you'd feel if Biden finished 2nd in Iowa and they ignored him. John shone brightly in those debates, then suspended his campaign, sadly.

A great point is what you said to start with -

"once Edwards left... poof - what issues?"

the lack of attention on issues, and instead on scandal and slime is amazing. I would like John, Joe, and Bill R. to jump in and demand the focus on the issues be the focus and call out the press for giving too much time to scandal baloney.

[loveangelc]

26. zogby sucks.

[Oilwellian]

30. Hillary 2012 must be pleased n/t

[AndyTiedye]

31. In 2000 and 2004, We Were Way Ahead at This Point

and relentless Swift-boating by the mighty slime machine made it close enough to steal each time.

This time we are starting out behind. This Is Not Good. This Is Not Good At All.

[Thepricebreaker]

32. Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Ronald Reagan - take nothing for granted. n/t

[LisaL]

34. Well, dah.

And this time, those 527 commercials are practically writing themselves.

[high density]

35. Zogby is a total joke

I'd actually like to see posts about his polls banned from this site. His primary forecasts have been atrocious, as were his 2004 results.

[New Dawn]

36. Obama should offer Ralph Nader a cabinet position.

That is how you make a real political coalition. If Nader's voters are so important, then offer him a cabinet position!

[Doctor_J]

37. This is nonsense. They are just setting us up to swallow another election theft

Even the Cabal News GOPropaganda machine won't be able to stop Obama from getting >55% against Bush III - aka McSame.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

40. Weird Thing Is, Is That From Polls I've Seen We Still Win The Electoral College, Which Is

what matters.

We get so fixated here on the straight percentages sometimes, but we forget what really matters. The Rasmussen one, though having us losing to mccain with straight %'s, still has us winning the electoral college. Just wanted to share that, in case people forget what matters.

[Kahuna]

42. McCain: Thanks Hillary! I couldn't do it without you. nt