Hillary lost the nomination, even with FL and MI she loses to Obama!

[IndianaGreen]

All she is doing now is helping the McCain campaign!

Total -

Obama 1626

Hillary 1494

Super Delegates - 795

Obama 213

Hillary 248

Pledged Delegates - 2687

Obama 1413

Hillary 1246

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Popular Vote Total -

Obama 13,281,132 49.5%

Hillary 12,577,409 46.9%

Spread Obama +703,723 +2.6%

Popular Vote (w/FL) -

Obama 13,857,346 48.5%

Hillary 13,448,395 47.1%

Spread Obama +408,951 +1.4%

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)* -

Obama 13,857,346 47.5%

Hillary 13,776,704 47.3%

Spread Obama +80,642 +0.2%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[C_U_L8R]

1. That Clinton Kitchen Sink is a dead weight on the Democratic Party

time to cut the cord.

[hueyshort]

8. So we should disenfranchise PA and the other states?

[pdxmom]

11. I'm in Oregon. One of the last states to vote in the primaries. I will

give up my opportunity to make my vote matter if it will just end this infighting and bickering and the Democratic Party can get to healing the rifts and fighting the Repukes.

By the way, I'll still get to vote. They don't cancel the primary if a nominee is presumed.

[ORDem]

42. Also from Oregon and I agree. I'd rather see us start walloping on McCain

full-time and starting the hard work to get fillibuster proof majorities in Congress. All this infighting and Hillary's Quixotic delusion is hurting the Dems badly.

:kick:

[quakerboy]

70. thirded by another oregonian

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Any state that voted after Super Tuesday was ALREADY disenfranchised.

I will never get a chance to vote for my candidate Kucinich in my PA primary, which won't happen until April 22. So that argument is specious.

I agree that this needs to end NOW. And let's get on with battling a very-weakend GOP and take this country back!

[C_U_L8R]

18. oh no those states are great

it's Clinton who needs to hang it up.
She cannot legitimately win the primary and
we've got a general election to run here.

[papau]

22. cannot legitimately win the primary?- can Obama win a must win large state other than his home state

[VADem11]

53. That argument is BS

Winning states in primaries does not translate to winning them in November. If that were the case, Bill Clinton would have lost NH, MD, CT, and CO and Reagan would have lost PA in 1980. And Obama has won more swing states and blue states than Clinton.

[wileedog]

48. PA gets disenfranchised almost every election

Its almost always decided by now. You think PA Republicans feel like their vote "counts" now that McCain is the nominee?

What a stupid argument.

[monmouth]

2. She's like that annoying guest who just doesn't "get" it's time to go home..

She has become the most annoying, phoney parasite on the political scene in a very long time. Go home Hill, it's OVER!

[havocmom]

28. more like an annoying DRUNK guest who is busting up the funriture

She needs to have the truth explained to her. She needs to get away from those idiots who are feeding her delusions.

[silverojo]

38. Both your posts say it all

She's so power-mad, she's become delusional. It makes me ashamed for having ever admired her, back in the days when she was First Lady and then a senator. :(

[Cha]

58. She wants her car keys back

and no one will cooperate 'cause she's been drinking the koolaid all night long.

[polichick]

3. She's still hoping to be crowned by insiders who are afraid of the boogeyman.

[Scurrilous]

4. Thanks for posting this!

:thumbsup:

[BOSSHOG]

5. Aren't there more votes to be counted??? More primarys to be held??

Gosh this democracy stuff really sucks huh??

[IndianaGreen]

7. She can't catch Obama even if she were to win all of the remaining primaries

All she is doing now is enabling the McCain campaign and harming Democratic unity. If she were a man, he would have been told a long time ago to quit playing Huckabee.

[Ravy]

9. She is 80k popular vote down (with MI and FL) by your own post.

She will far eclipse that in PA, if the polls hold or increase further in her favor.

[IndianaGreen]

Florida won't count because they didn't reach an agreement on a redo

The Florida Congressional delegation already shot that down, plus there are legal questions regarding verifying voters' signatures.

A Michigan do over is extremely plausible, and Obama will do well in that state on June 3 if everything goes according to plan.

A Hillary victory in PA will not win her enough delegates to make a dent in Obama's lead.

[Ravy]

51. Count? Anything the SDs want to count will count.

They don't have to be seated for a superdelegate to consider the popular vote in Florida.

[PADemD]

78. From Pennsylvania Democratic Party Online Poll

69% - Barack Obama
30% - Hillary Clinton
1% - Neither/Other

http://padems.com/

[Gore1FL]

32. However, most of the remaining states are Obama's

Where he will easily make that up. Additionally, the pop vote argument is a canard anyways as it disregards caucus states.

[Ravy]

50. I don't believe that to be the case.

Personally, if I was voting, and wanted to represent the people's will, I would vote with the popular vote of my constituency, be it congressional district, city, or state.

[Gore1FL]

54. That is certainly a consideration

that too leans towards Obama on the whole.

[Ravy]

56. I haven't seen the stats on that. It would be interesting.

Big blue states have the most superdelegates. But I wouldn't be surprised if it did go to Obama, too.

[Hawkeye-X]

69. Your argument is invalid.

You keep forgetting that MI gave Obama 0 votes, and Hillary was the *ONLY* one in the ballot. DNC sanctioned Michigan and Florida for moving up their primaries when their Hillary-supporting legislators decided to ignore the agreed-upon rules and passed the new date that violated the early state rules. Only IA, NH, NV and SC were allowed to compete before Feb 5th. Michigan would have voted on Feb 5th if they agreed to the rules, and FL last week (with MS and WY) which would have been very relevant, but since they fucked up, they are now irrelevant, and may *be* relevant again in June when MI does their redo (but everyone has to agree on the redo - including Justice Dept). FL is dead in the water, and will be because their legislature is so fucked up, they couldn't even agree to do a re-do when Dean offered it. Dean is not even to blame either. Harold Ickes (who is a Clinton supporter) actually voted to sanction both MI and FL, so your argument hold no water.

Hawkeye-X

[Ravy]

74. Gotta disagree. Here is why I think you are wrong.

This is politics. If people are inclined to vote for Clinton, then they just need supporting stats, and *they* get to decide what the supporting stats are.

If superdelegates want to count votes in Florida, or Michigan, or both, they are perfectly valid in doing so, and I can assure you, some will if it comes to that.

Look at how DUers stretch every little statistic almost to the breaking point (sometimes past). We are amateurs compared to politicians.

[UALRBSofL]

10. I think she will catch up

She gets 210 delegates from flroida and that shoud push her ahead of Obama.

[Zhade]

59. She won't get them. Sorry.

Nah, not sorry at all.

[Hawkeye-X]

71. What crack are you smoking?

Lay down that pipe. No delegates will be seated from FL at all.

Hawkeye-X

[BOSSHOG]

13. Thanks for the saturday evening chuckle

comparing Clinton to Huckabee. Those numbers certainly don't add up. The Dem will win in November regardless of the candidate. Besides, Obama may have to drop out if he can't stand the heat. Whats the next "Reverend Wright" to drop?

[Gore1FL]

33. Or the next Ferraro?

[davidinalameda]

65. or the next Bill

is he still campaigning for her?

[gristy]

20. Primaries are not "winner take all"

It doesn't matter how many she wins or loses. It matters how many delegates she wins, and delegates are awarded in proportion to the popular vote.

[dansolo]

12. Hillary was expecting it to be over on Super Tuesday

Would you care so much if Hillary was the one with the insurmountable delegate lead?

[BOSSHOG]

16. I don't understand your question

I CARE about democracy. Its the veteran thing in me. I'm having a hard time on the 15th of March understanding how Obama has an insurmountable lead. Wishful thinking and talking point forwarding by his cult?

By the Way (Thats BTW in computer speak) I am and always have been a General Clark supporter. Lordy wouldn't a brokered convention be great with a bonafide hero nominated by the Dems.

[Gore1FL]

35. Because he is over 150 delegates ahead

and she would have to win every contest including the remaining super delegates by 20 points to pull it off. She likley wonm;t even win PA by 20 pts, much less any of the others, except maybe WV.

Until someone articulates with a clear and realistic scenario on extactly how she makes up the delegate count, I'm goig to have to agree that she has only an unclear and unrealistic chance of getting the nomination.

[Hawkeye-X]

72. Sorry to inform you - but Clark is a Clinton supporter

and is now irrelevant. Sorry, your bona-fide hero is no longer a hero, but the enemy, at least until Hillary drops out. I still respect your 24 years in service, and defending democracy, but Hillary is shitting on it and I'm quite puzzled on why you would support her?

Hawkeye-X

[BOSSHOG]

79. I'm well aware of who General Clark supports

And how did you get the idea I'm supporting Clinton? I do disagree with your assessment about what she is doing to military service.

[femmocrat]

6. K & R

thanks for researching this

[billbuckhead]

14. Hillary's opponent can't win without superdelegates

[IndianaGreen]

19. Here's is what Nancy Pelosi said today about that

Hillary's Rovian plan to steal the nomination just ain't gonna happen!

Pelosi's Delegate Stance Boosts Obama

By DAVID ESPO – 4 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says it would be damaging to the Democratic party for its leaders to buck the will of national convention delegates picked in primaries and caucuses, a declaration that gives a boost to Sen. Barack Obama.

"If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic party," Pelosi said in an interview taped Friday for broadcast Sunday on ABC's "This Week."

The California Democrat did not mention either Obama or his rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, by name. But her remarks seemed to suggest she was prepared to cast her ballot at the convention in favor of the candidate who emerges from the primary season with the most pledged delegates.

Obama leads Clinton by 142 pledged delegates — those delegates picked in nomination contests to date, in The Associated Press' count.

Barring an unlikely string of landslide victories by the former first lady in the remaining states, he will end the primary season with a delegate lead, but short of the 2025 needed to win the nomination.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jbmaeGHPflyoZifK0IsXS9tCsWvwD8VE3FU00

[seriousstan]

24. I thought you threww Pelosi under the bus long ago, now you are waving her like a flag?

Any way the wind blows.

[IndianaGreen]

27. I am merely posting what she said

and she is not alone in thinking that superdelegates should not go against the voters.

[customerserviceguy]

43. Sounds like you could take that both ways

"...what's happened in the elections..." is two things, there have been delegates elected, and there has been a popular vote. Sounds like Pelosi is trying to say something that can be used to go either way.

This party's in trouble if Hillary ever does catch up in the popular vote total. And your math higher up this thread shows that it's quite possible for that to happen.

[Upton]

15. Good numbers

and I agree all she is doing is helping McCain.

[IndianaGreen]

21. Here's is why Hillary must accept defeat, key voting Democratic blocs are being alienated

DEMOCRATS' INFIGHTING RISKS ALIENATING KEY VOTING BLOCS

Sat Mar 15, 7:57 PM ET

How could this happen? How could the Democrats assemble two breakthrough contenders with luminous, inspiring resumes for an election in which they were prohibitive favorites, and by March be on the verge of bungling it so badly that at least five important political groups could be alienated from the Democrats for a generation? Nice job.

<snip>

A month ago, on Feb. 13, Mark Penn, the chief strategist for the Clinton campaign, wrote a memo saying that the nomination would be decided by delegate count, not by momentum. "Again and again," he wrote, "this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived 'momentum.'" That was February. You don't hear the Clintonistas arguing that in March.

That's how much the race has changed. And it keeps changing. The Penn memo isn't evidence of the perfidy of the Clinton campaign. It's merely evidence that in this campaign, the two sides are going to keep fighting, changing their arguments, doing anything they can to come out on top by Labor Day.

Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, isn't known for contemplative thinking, but he captured the difficulty the Democrats face when he said the other day that the goal was to find a solution that would allow the losing campaign to feel it had been treated fairly. Good phrase. Good luck with that.

Because whatever happens, someone is going to be really, really upset, and every time that happens the party is affected, and punished, long beyond Election Day.

Remember, for example, how the Democrats alienated party regulars when they nominated George S. McGovern at a 1972 convention stocked with wildly disproportionate numbers of delegates carrying graduate degrees, or how the Republicans expelled their liberals and moderates at the Barry Goldwater convention in 1964?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ucds/20080315/cm_ucds/democratsinfightingrisksalienatingkeyvotingblocs

[oasis]

23. Pastorgate has changed everything. Hillary will ride the Pennslyvania tsunami

into the White House.

Super delegates won't be able to ignore the drumbeat of public opinion caused by Rev. Wright's "perceived" hate speech. Couple that with the possible damaging revelations that will arise from the ongoing Rezko trial.

[IndianaGreen]

25. Hillary's blind ambition is more than matched by...

the blind faith of her followers.

[oasis]

30. "Nothing succeeds like success".

;-)

[ExtraGriz]

26. yep..super delegates arent going to rubber stamp anyone

they are going to choose the best candidate to win in november, and the candidate who can win the states that are needed to get the 270 electoral votes. i also think that all those red states obama had hoped to convert to blue this november are now no longer a reality ....wright probably screwed that up for him anyway.

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/03/15/hillary-won-44/

[oasis]

29. True dat (eom)

[Gore1FL]

37. What are Hillary's 270 states?

[eggman67]

73. Quite right

But, some folks seem to be convinced that superdelegates are just that - a rubber stamp. Of course, that begs the question why even have superdelegates. I think they may be in for a surprise.

[Gore1FL]

36. If we were in Vegas

I'd bet my IRA against Hillary winning the nomination.

[oasis]

40. Whoops there goes another pension kerplop!

:-)

[Gore1FL]

41. Whoever I bet against. would lose theirs

It is impossible to close a 150+ lead with the remaining contests. Even if it closes to 100, which is highly unlikely, she'd still have to win a ridiculous majority of the remaining super delegates wihthout a convincing argument to do so.

[oasis]

52. Hold on to your dough, Pastorgate has changed everything. You'll see.

;-)

[Gore1FL]

55. I doubt it.

No more than any of the other not ready for prime-time kitchen sink attacks.

[gristy]

45. I'm confused.

Can you show me the numbers for your prediction?

[Zhade]

60. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Yes, you are that funny. Thanks for the laugh!

Remind me to remind you of this when she finally gives up. It's going to RULE.

[IndianaGreen]

31. NY Times has been polling superdelegates, here is the latest and it looks bad for Hillary

For Democrats, Increased Fears of a Long Fight

By ADAM NAGOURNEY and JEFF ZELENY
Published: March 16, 2008

“If we get to the end and Senator Obama has won more states, has more delegates and more popular vote,” said Representative Jason Altmire, Democrat of Pennsylvania, who is undecided, “I would need some sort of rationale for why at that point any superdelegate would go the other way, seeing that the people have spoken.”

Mr. Altmire said he was repeating an argument that he made to Mrs. Clinton during a session at her house in Washington on Thursday night with uncommitted superdelegates.

The interviews were conducted at a time of rising displays of animosity between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama, with Mrs. Clinton repeatedly arguing that Mr. Obama did not have the foreign policy credentials to stand up to Senator John McCain of Arizona, the likely Republican nominee. Several superdelegates said they were concerned that this could hurt the Democratic Party in the fall elections and put pressure on some of them to endorse one of the candidates to bring the contest to a quicker conclusion.

“It would be nice to find a way to wrap it up,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who has not committed to either candidate. “If the current trajectory of the debate continues, the divisions will make it more difficult for many of our candidates.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/16/us/politics/16delegates.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

[Zhade]

61. Cool, her big mouth is sinking her with the SDs!

Nice!

[AZBlue]

34. She's fully aware: "All she is doing now is helping the McCain campaign!"

She's become pathetic.

[mdmc]

39. HRC will use dirty rat worm tricks to win

it ain't ever gonna be over. If she loses, we lose the Clintons and their "backing"

[Fredda Weinberg]

44. Others apparently disagree w/your arithmetic

If the Florida and Michigan contests end up counting, Clinton could win the delegates in those states and also be ahead in the popular vote by more than 40,000 votes.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87928819

[IndianaGreen]

46. Neither FL or MI will count. Michigan will have a redo in June

and Florida looks like they are just out of luck. This means that Michigan will get her delegates elected in June seated in Denver, while Florida is kept out of the convention altogether.

BTW, it isn't my arithmetic, but RCP's.

[Johnny__Motown]

62. Nothing in MI is settled, and I think Obama will win in a redo anyways

She only got 55% and ran virtually unopposed.


Also everyone here know that she and Grandholm were trying to game the system to benefit her, at the expense of our votes. I expect a serious backlash if we do get a chance to vote again.

[Ravy]

75. You can't keep the Florida election entirely out of the convention.

They might not have their delegates seated, but superdelegates know what the popular vote was, and are likely to take it into consideration when casting their votes.

[casus belli]

47. If she won every state 60/40 from now on...

And won a 50/50 split of the remaining supers, she would still not have enough to win the nomination.

[gristy]

49. My understanding is that counting MI and FL delegates

as they stand now is a non-starter, for many well publicized reasons. Is that your understanding?

[Zhade]

63. They won't count. She's done.

Done, done, done.

[Zhade]

57. kick

kick

[metalluk]

64. Hogwash!

You have no idea what will happen if there is a Florida redo. Hillary might win by a wider margin that in the original contest, with increasing polarization of the vote and the scandals damaging Obama.

You have no idea how wide Hillary's margin will be in PA, if she is going to win a MI redo, or how much her margin will be in IN, KY, WV, or Puerto Rico.

You have no idea whether delegates currently committed to Obama might withdraw that commitment if the Wright business continues to intensify rather than disappear.

I have done the math for all of the remaining primaries, filling in realistic (though admittedly best case) estimates based on the best projections available for each state. It is not unreasonable for Clinton to close to within 30-40 pledged delegates, even without dramatic changes due to new scandals or a major turn in public opinion. It is not unreasonable that Clinton could win the popular vote. If she wins all of the big states except IL, wins the popular vote, and trails by just 30-40 pledged delegates, the roughly 300 uncommitted superdelegates at the convention would have enough justification to give her the nomination if they are so inclined.

Add in some major turn in momentum and Clinton could still win more pledged delegates than Obama. It is unlikely and impossible without a major shift in public opinion, but it is clearly possible.

[AGirl]

66. yeah , all Hillary doing is helping McCain, and some of us Love McCain.

anything else? are you going to write more math ? Tell people to give up? what do you got? what are you selling?

[Eurobabe]

67. Hillary, please quit this race. NOW

So we can move on and fight the real enemy in November: McBushler!

[AGirl]

68. Write a letter to Hillary, maybe she will read it.

If you feel so strongly about it. But thank you for your concern. Keep asking tomorrow, make a topic about it, maybe , maybe it will work!! :D

[Perry Logan]

76. Poor Obamites, trying not to think about Pastorgate.

[cooolandrew]

77. I've said this for ages he won in the potomac the logical move was HRC to cut a deal then and

concede.

[IndianaGreen]

80. Hillary could have gone out on a high note after the "I'm proud to be here with Senator Obama" scene

and found herself as VP choice with everyone rallying around the presumptive ticket, and love and kisses everywhere. Instead, she chose to poison the entire process and gotten everyone mad at each other. No wonder Hillary is the great polarizer, she has succeeded in pushing McCain's poll numbers higher than those of either of the remaining Democratic candidates.