Caucus Delegates + Buyers Remorse + Caucus Paradigm = Why Saturday’s Iowa County Conventions have a greater impact on the campaign than Ohio and could mean even worse news ahead for the Clinton campaign.
Something very significant happened in Iowa Saturday that was ignored by most of the country but followed very closely at DU.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5100160and
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5094080&mesg_id=5094080Iowa took the second step in the Caucus process and had their County Nominating Conventions.
What is at stake:
The caucuses are only the first step in the process – this is how the system will work towards completion:
• Mar 15, 2008 County Convention Iowa's 99 counties are holding their county conventions on March 15th. Contact your local party to find out more!
• Apr 26, 2008 District Conventions The five district conventions will take place April 26th.
• Jun 14, 2008 State Convention The Democratic State Convention will be held June 14th in Des Moines.
The results on Saturday will have a dramatic impact on the national nominating process for three separate reasons:
1) Delegates Obama gains +7
2) The issue of Buyers Remorse - Hillary's numbers drop after the caucuses
3)Paradigm for understanding other Caucus process and other states - 14 more states are still in caucus mode
Conclusion: Soon the Clinton campaign will go on full court spin with their sights set on Pennsylvania and promoting the idea that the only important thing for determining the nominee are Big States and their Primaries they are only undermining support they have in caucus states – who are still determining who to support for President.
Question: How will such a strategy play on the 14 states still in the decision making process? Is it possible that short term Clinton spin will so antagonize small states who are still deciding who they want for President that Hillary could lose some of the 155 projected caucus delegates she now theoretically has but continues to denigrate and insult?
Today Iowa gave us a clue it could be quite a few.
Discussion of the details for the points above
1) In terms of numbers:
a)Barack Obama significantly increased his support in the process by increasing his percent by 40%. Typically County Convention results closely mirror caucus results. Not so here:
Comparison between Caucus and County Convention
. . . . Caucus . . . County Conventions
Obama 37.5% . . . . . .52.33%
Edwards 29.75% . . . . .15.64%
Clinton 29.47% . . . . . 31.68%
http://www.iowademocrats.us/draftconventionresults.pdf These reflect about 90% returns from the 99 county conventions
b)Obama received his support from a huge split in Edwards delegates going for him and also for some slippage of Clinton supporters. The reason that Clinton had even the marginal 2% increase above is because she gained percentage in some counties where Edwards was not able to maintain the 15% threshold minimum.
c) What is very striking about these numbers, and has not been observed in the press at all, is that the 15% minimum threshold has to be maintained at each of the steps of the process. While there may be some districts he maintains 15%, it is logical to assume that since he is so close to the 15% threshold statewide that he will lose some districts on April 26th and that will mean that he will not be able to maintain the threshold thru to the statewide convention in June.
d) Based on Obama’s performance on Saturday it is logical to assume that he will continue to get support from Edwards delegates later on in the process and continue to add even more delegates.
e) Obama gained between 7-9 delegates Saturday in Iowa – Clinton’s huge win in Ohio accounted for 9 delegates
2) The Issue of Buyers Remorse has been raised by the Clinton campaign
a) The Clinton Charge:
Mark Penn -- who had predicted Clinton and Obama would be "virtually tied" after Tuesday -- wouldn't say if Clinton would remain in the race if she lost either state. But he suggested her chances improve each day as voters experience "buyer's remorse" over Obama.
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/ny-ushill0302,0,1884500.storyb) The problem with this spin is that each new primary or caucus is a first vote for that particular state.
Iowa is the first state in which the process allows the participants to vote a second time. And there is clear buyers remorse – that on Hillary Rodham Clinton.
c) The Clinton campaign apparently thinking that once the caucuses were over that the decision making was also over made very conflicting remarks about the process heaping insults on the caucus process
-Before the caucuses there was the pre spin to take out the sting of defeat:
Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland told The Columbus Dispatch it "makes no sense" to grant Iowa the right to hold the first presidential contest.
He called the GOP and Democratic caucuses "hugely undemocratic," because the process "excludes so many people."
-Then Senator Clinton had to reverse that and before the Primary state what a good thing it was . . .
"As she has said many times she is glad Iowans are entrusted with this responsibility because they take it so seriously. On this issue Hillary and Gov. Strickland strongly disagree."
Then afterwards the Clinton campaign made numerous negative statements about caucus states everytime they lost in one – here is a selection:
My opinion is that the Iowa caucus system should not be any kind of litmus test for our nominee. Unfortunately it is one. The campaign always knew Iowa would be tough for us – they thought it would be one of our toughest states. We have our work cut out for us, that's for sure. From my friend:
I wish there were time for the real story of Iowa to emerge.
The Iowa caucus process is a broken and flawed process. It was designed to allow for the active party Dems generally known to one another to assign delegates and was not designed to handle a flood of students and independents.
(and again after Texas)
A Clinton spokesman denied rumors of a pending legal challenge, but made no secret of Clinton's displeasure with caucuses in general.
d) After the caucuses were over Iowans had a chance for real buyers remorse:
This little spin is unlikely to be offered by the Clinton campaign again.
3) Paradigm for future states?
There are 14 other caucus states who are still going thru the process of selecting delegates, eventually to a state convention where the national delegates will be selected. None of the other states have a sizeable number of delegates pledged to a 3rd candidate like Iowa. But if there is any further buyers remorse in these states then it is possible that Clinton delegate defections could cause delegates to be lost in a particular state.
In most years of course it makes no difference as by the time this many primaries have taken place a winner is acknowledged as a winner and the losing candidates endorse the leader gracefully before state conventions take place.
The bad news for the Clinton campaign is that their incompetent handling of the caucus process can now be replicated in the
following caucus states. :
a) Washington . . . State Convention 5/17
b) Alaska . . . . . . .State 5/24
c) Am Samoa . . . . .?
d) Colorado . . . . . .State 5/17
e) Idaho . . . . . . . . .State 6/14
f) Kansas . .District 4/12 . . . .State 5/17
g) Minnesota . . .District 5/17 . .State 6/6
h) N Dakota . . . District May State April
i) Nebraska . . . . . .County June State 6/28
j) Washington . . . County 4/19 Dist 5/17 State 6/15
k) Maine . . . . . . .State 5/31
l) Hawaii . . . . . . State 5/25
m) Texas . . . . . . State 6/6