The biggest fear of the Obama camp is a total blow out in Pennsylvania

[Herman Munster]

In Ohio, Hillary won white democrats about 70-30 and they should be about 85% of Pennsylvania likely voters. It's a closed primary so no independent or republican support and while Obama is registering new voters, so is Hillary in Scranton and her other strongholds.

Given the fact that Pennsylvania has the 3rd oldest population in the country, the wright stuff has been breaking and is a turn off to many whites, there are less black people in Pennsylvania than Ohio, Hillary has every politico in the state in her corner to get out the vote with their machines, and Hillary and Bill have been campaigning almost non-stop in Pennsylvania for a week while Obama has started to write the state off by going to Indiana instead, it's not hard to imagine Obama winning only 25% of the white vote in a closed primary.

I'll give Obama a 90-10 split with the 15% black vote.

When you do the math, Hillary wins Pennsylvania 65-35 under this scenario and picks up 47 delegates and approximately 400,000-500,000 popular votes.

I believe this is what the Hillary team is shooting for. A total knockout in Pennsylvania that will change the race just like South Carolina did for Obama.

And if they pull this off, it's a jump ball and all the superdelegates that are supporting Obama or are undecided will have a serious gut check.

[jlake]

1. I agree & I think 65-70% for Hillary is achievable.

[onenote]

94. there you go again .. elsewhere you've claimed she'll get 80% plus

why is she sliding backwards in your estimates?

[PaDem]

99. not a chance she wins by more than twenty...........

I personally will be very, very surprised if she wins by more than twelve.

[jillan]

2. She picked up 2 major endorsements from PA today too

Yep - two more Superdelegates for Hillary :)

[Hawkeye-X]

5. Net +1

She lost one in Iowa yesterday.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Not bloody likely - I call bullshit on you.

It'll be 55-45 Clinton, not a blowout at all.

And SD is not going to jump bail at all - Clinton just lost one on Saturday. Got anything new to report?

Hawkeye-X

[roguevalley]

74. she needs 64%+ in every single remaining contest to stay viable

anything less and she's out.

[AGirl]

4. well don't tell them. Psst.

[Bok_Tukalo]

6. If it is a jump ball after Penn

How do the other races shape up? It is not the last one and then comes down to the Supers.

[pointsoflight]

79. Hillary can pick up 170 delegates in PA?

Really?!?

[ossman]

7. Obama has won the last 10 by 65/35 margins. wishful thinking hillbots.

Whats the most she's won by this year.

"Bitch is the new black, but black is the new president" Tracy Morgan

[Bake]

95. I find nothing either funny or inspiring about Tracy Morgan's line from SNL

I think it encapsulates everything that's wrong with this primary season. And you put it in your sig line.

Says a lot about you.

Bake

[ThatBozGuy]

8. Registration for voting is still open, New democrats are added every day...

Pennsylvania will end up like Ohio a squeaker. 8-12% difference, delegates within a few spread.

Changes nothing for Ms Clinton and then is off set in the following weeks.

[maximusveritas]

9. Yeah, I think a 30 point win is a realistic goal for her

Still, even with that kind of win, Hillary will have work to do. She'd still be behind, but at least have a chance to catch him in the popular vote with a tie in NC and a similar win in Florida.

[bluestateguy]

10. Establishment voters

People who vote however their union boss, or their party's governor, senator or mayor tells them to vote.

I don't doubt that there are a lot of those in Pennsylvania. There is a history of bossed politics in the state.

Anyway, if Hillary could only get 57& in her own state (Obama got 69%, BTW), what makes you think she would do better than than in PA?

[jackson_dem]

17. Obama benefitted from rethugs and indies in NY and got 37% of the white vote there

In PA he can only rely on a few rethug and indie ringers who are "Democrats for a day" but it won't be enough to affect the outcome. He was at 29% with PA whites--before pastorgate...There is also the buyer's remorse factor now.

[bread_and_roses]

53. New York is not an open Primary

So exactly how did Obama benefit from Rs and Is? Only registered Democrats can vote in Dem primary in NY. And you can't change registration same day - I forget when cut-off is, but is long enough to make last minute change impossible.

[Herman Munster]

32. demographics are destiny

NY is 17.4% black.

PA is 10.7% black.

[Liberal Gramma]

80. And Idaho is 0.1% black

Demographics are not the whole story

[bilgewaterbill]

11. All the advantage she got in Ohio was wiped out by the final Iowa count.

Any advantage she gains in PA will be negated by his gains in NC. Bottom line comes down to the suoerdelegates. Are they gonna go with the popular vote/delegate lead? Or are they gonna vote for continuing the status quo?

[jackson_dem]

15. He won't win NC if he loses PA

NC isn't SC. Many Obama supporters are mistakenly thinking it is.

If Clinton wins the popular vote superdelegates should go with her like the people did.

[bilgewaterbill]

22. Still sippin' the JD, huh JD? NC goes BO. PA is tight.

When BO wins the PV then I'll recall your statement re: the SD's.

[better tomorrow]

26. ABCD

JD, NC, BO, PA, PV, SD.....is this some kind of code, heh heh. :silly:

[bilgewaterbill]

28. It'll all be clear PDQ. Keep that on the QT.

[better tomorrow]

30. OK 2U

[loveangelc]

27. Obama will win NC. He will probably be campaigning there on and off during now and PA's primary.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

36. The two Dem Candidates for GOV in NC have endorsed Obama already

People here are sick of how the Clinton campaign has acted.

Oh, and we won't have Rush Limbaugh syndrome here, because you can't party switch the day
of the election.

[musicblind]

44. I'm from NC, and the fact that it's a closed primary here

is going to help Clinton a lot more than it does Obama. Not saying she'll win, but she MIGHT.

[musicblind]

45. douple post oops

double post

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hersheygirl]

54. Please don't come back

We don't want you either. You don't have to insult PA, and we're not all idiots either. Remember, we were one of the original 13 colonies and we have more history here than the majority of states in this union. If that makes us backwoods, so be it.

I like the way most of you posting in this thread think Hillary has it all sewn up. Well think again, because most of you don't live here, I do. I see what is happening and I hear what is going on, so, don't get overconfident. Remember, there's 6 weeks till the primary and a lot can change in that time. Obama has lots of support and is gaining momentum as I type this.

Remember the saying "people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones."

Thank you.

[Lucinda]

13. I think their biggest fear is Wright coverage continuing.

But PA can't be a very bright spot on the horizon.

[ossman]

14. Just wait. Before you know it, the Clinton jedi mind tricks will have Obama favored in PA.

[rodeodance]

61. Too bad BO has used poor judgment and continues to associate himself with Wright

[Bok_Tukalo]

19. It could be the Dean Scream ... The Swiftboat of 2008

It all depends on how far the Media is willing to take it.

Take it far enough, and Clinton gets the nomination because of it, and it will be a wedge driven straight in between the African-American voter and the Democratic Party that Karl Rove himself didn't envision in his wildest wet dreams.

[rodeodance]

59. and BO has only himself to blame.

[Lucinda]

67. I don't know. People are people. I see no reason to think that

the black community will react much differently than the white community. Some will agree, some will see it as not a big deal, and others will have a problem with the extremity of Wrights message.

Obama and Hillary have both been walking an extremely fine line. They both have to work harder to prove that they should be where they are. That may not be fair, but it is what it is.

A lot of us, though we fully support our candidate, are waiting to see who survives the trial by fire. That person will have our full support in the general.

I do agree that a lot will depend on how the media handles this.

[cooolandrew]

16. Best of luck to you and bless you.

[aquarius dawning]

18. If Obama is counting on regaining the momentum in Indiana

he is delerious as Indiana is basically a KKK stronghold.

[ossman]

23. are you retarded?

[aquarius dawning]

24. No, I live right next door to Indiana and have lots of family in Indiana.

Indiana actually elected the Klan President as governor not so long ago and there is still a high degree of Klan activity within the state which frequently spills out to surrounding states. Indianapolis and Fort Wayne are the only two areas where Obama will find significant support and that will be insufficient to win the state in a primary or a general election. Furthermore, Indiana is in no way a purple or blue state, it is red through and through. He will not win in indiana.

[better tomorrow]

29. I wonder what the Klan will do when....

Hillary's Hispanics outnumber all of them.....

That is too bad that ignorance still exists in Indiana, then, if what you say is true. God Bless us all....

[JVS]

35. No showing fir Obama in Gary?

[Leopolds Ghost]

41. Of course not -- aquarius dawning lives right next door, he should know n/t

[Sadie5]

48. It's the truth you speak

O will bomb out in Indiana. Where he spoke yesterday in a totally Repub county, 99% rebub 95% White. There is no way he will take Indiana.

[Kittycat]

81. Please don't use that word.

I already spoke out yesterday in my own post on people not using the Klan reference... However, as a mother of a disabled child - your cavelier use of the word "retarded" is wrong - and nothing better than what Neil Boortz is doing right now to a 9yo mentally disabled child. There's never an excuse for it - ever.

[ossman]

20. Wait until TAX DAY Hillbots. Do PA residents like shady dealings?

Tax returns, tax returns, tax returns

[Major Hogwash]

21. Naw, not really. My biggest fear is that Hillary will only give Obama nominal support.

Like she did Kerry in 2004.

[JoFerret]

52. After the divisive campaign he is running

he would be lucky to get a bumper sticker.

But Clinton is a good democrat and she will get out there stumping for him. She knows how important this election is for all of us. Obama - it's about him, all about him.
He will need all the help he can get. he is another Dukakis in the making although unlike Dukakis he goes into the ge process weak and wounded.

[Warren Stupidity]

73. Yeah he needs to stop throwing all that mud at Clinton!

For example:

[CarbonDate]

96. Projection. n/t

.

[Spider Jerusalem]

25. I think you're cracked.

No way in hell Hillary wins PA 65-35. 55-45 or 60-40, maybe. She's only broken 60% in her home state of Arkansas. There's no reason based on past performance to expect she will in Pennsylvania. And you totally discount the efforts of the Obama campaign in new voter registration. The ground game is all Obama's. If his campaign succeeds in registering a hundred to a hundred and fifty thousand new voters, and those new voters go to the polls, then he'll definitely succeed in holding Hillary under sixty percent.

And in case you didn't notice, the remaining superdelegates have said they're inclined to back the winner of the most pledged delegates (because getting delegates is what primaries are all about). And that isn't going to be Hillary. The odds, at this point, of her taking a delegate lead, are extremely slim. And even 65% in PA and much closer races in every other state, with Obama likely to win Oregon, South Dakota, and several other remaining states, won't do it for her.

[metalluk]

31. Sixty-five percent

might be optimistic. I think she can get 58-60% and possibly more if the Wright business grows rather than receding. I think that she needs to shoot for at least 58% to retain a realistic shot at the nomination. More than that would be fantastic!

[Herman Munster]

34. that's why I picked 65%

she needs a number that not only beats expectations but shatters them and calls into question Obama's ability to win big states.

I think she needs to go for broke here. They said Texas was her Alamo but I think ultimately it's Pennsylvania. It's her last real shot to change the dynamic in the race.

[Sadie5]

50. Os luck can't hold out

So far he has only won small repub states, no big states.

[CarbonDate]

97. That's a good number.

It's what she needs in every remaining state from here on in to tie Obama's pledged delegate total.

Every. Single. One.

Think she can do it?

[PseudoIntellect]

33. You're right; that's a scary thought for Obama.

But if PA goes heavily for Hillary, it will be her SECOND 60% blowout, which is an enormous number next to Obama's only SIXTEEN. The media would go crazy about it.

[greyghost]

37. Hillary will win big in PA. 65% is VERY possible.

[importDavid]

38. Ain't gonna happen!

Tax return scandal / getting her clock cleaned at the debates will knock her ass out of contention for good - without Barrack having to go negative.

The MSM is just drooling over themselves waiting for this...

She'll probably still eek out a win but it will be closer to 52/48 than 65/35.

[grantcart]

39. gee Hermie I thought South Carolina was some kind of fantastic

strategic victory for Clinton like Wyoming.

[misanthrope]

40. Correction...

...you misspelled "...and the Clintons will be using every method in the book on superdelegates" as "...and all the superdelegates that are supporting Obama or are undecided will have a serious gut check."

[cali]

42. It's exceedingly unlikely that she can pull off anything close to that

That's a Hermie fantasy. It's possible if Obama implodes completely over the Wright thing, and we'll know that within a couple of weeks. Barring that it'll be more like Ohio or California- in other words, not nearly enough of a winning margin to change the dynamics of the race. She has to win PA by that kind of a margin to have a chance.

[the other one]

43. The superdelegates just need an excuse to go Clinton

Pennsylvania will be that excuse.

Sorry Obamanation, but the Democratic Party leadership does not want Obama. If they did he would already have locked up the nomination. No facts, just a gut feeling, so either you agree or don't.

I think I am un-biased. I think both Clinton and Obama equal the weakest excuse for candidates that the Dems could find. Welcome back to 1968. Congrats to McCain...America RIP

[cali]

47. Not true. You need to pay attention

Nancy Pelosi, who is inarguably the most powerful democrat, made more comments yesterday that made it clear where she stands, and where she stands, dozens of House SDs stand behind her. It's that simple, dear. Gut feelings are notoriously unreliable. I'm biased, alright but I prefer to base my opinions on FACTS. What you said, can easily be turned around: The Democratic Party Leadership does not want Clinton. If they did she would already have locked up the nomination.

WASHINGTON — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says it would be damaging to the Democratic party for its leaders to buck the will of national convention delegates picked in primaries and caucuses, a declaration that gives a boost to Sen. Barack Obama. “If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what’s happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic party,” Pelosi said in an interview taped Friday for broadcast Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/15/pelosi-says-superdelegates-should-not-overturn-primary-results/

[C_U_L8R]

46. Even with an unlikely PA blowout,

there is zero possibility that the Clintons can win the primary honestly.
The numbers don't lie and at this point, the Clinton Financiers are just
throwing good money after bad. The should consider putting their support
where it will do the most good in the general election. Many already are.

[BeyondGeography]

Hillary lost more net delegates yesterday (13) than she will pick up in Pennsylvania

It won't be a blowout; Obama has plenty of time to keep it respectable, and she will end up wearing out a lot of people there with her duplicity and her negativity.

[BeyondGeography]

49. Hillary lost more net delegates yesterday (13) than she will pick up in Pennsylvania

It won't be a blowout; Obama has plenty of time to keep it respectable, and she will end up wearing out a lot of people there with her duplicity and her negativity.

[phrigndumass]

51. Here's THE MATH in your scenario

Provided just for you, I ran these calculations this morning.

Pennsylvania results:
Clinton - 103 pledged delegates (+48)
Obama - 55 pledged delegates

Total results in (87% of 100%):
Clinton - 1,354.5 total pledged delegates (47%)
Obama - 1,474.5 total pledged delegates (53%)

Additional superdelegates needed to win nomination:
Clinton - 217 needed of 333 remaining, or 65.2%
Obama - 133 needed of 333 remaining, or 39.9%

(IMHO, jump balls offer a 50/50 chance unless one player is taller. Senator Obama is taller in pledged delegates.)

Feel free to download the spreadsheet at this link and add your own scenarios:
http://www.box.net/shared/xnx7q7hk0o

You can see more calculations and scenarios at:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5079171

:D

[moondust]

55. Tweety says he can win PA.

And Tweety's a PA boy.

[Drachasor]

60. Why does everyone call him "Tweety"?

[Warren Stupidity]

70. Tweety Bird

The origiins are explained in this thread here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2826864&mesg_id=2826864

[alphafemale]

102. The big ol' yeller heads. The annoying strangled-sounded voices.

I think the resemblance is uncanny.

[rodeodance]

63. Tweety is a twit. You believe him. What a joke

[Forkboy]

83. Ummm...YOU fell for the Newsmax shit. What a joke!

:rofl:

[geek tragedy]

71. Tweety is engaging in wishful thinking.

Sorry to say, but it's true.

[Warren Stupidity]

56. Clue: Clinton lost the nomination on super tuesday.

Her decision to pointlessly and destructively continue her campaign to the bitter end was not in the best interests of our party. A big win in Pennsylvania will float the delusion-mobile for a few more weeks, but she just does not have the delegates to win.

[rodeodance]

62. BO is to blame for associating himself with Wright. no one else

[Warren Stupidity]

65. Whatever.

Your candidate lost the race a long time ago. Get used to it.

[rodeodance]

68. Odd thing-----she is still is the race. tsk tsk

[Warren Stupidity]

69. Odd and destructive. Somebody should whack her with a clue stick.

[rodeodance]

57. It will certainly change the dynamics of this race.

[rodeodance]

58. and Pastorgate will now play a role--

[Blarch]

64. you are talking about ONE STATE.

It's over. get over it.

Do you really think she will achieve a 'total knockout' in every state left ?

[Forkboy]

66. If nothing else works, a total pigheaded unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through

[mdmc]

72. That is my biggest fear.

But I really don't care. Let them destroy the DLC for all I care...

[Scriptor Ignotus]

75. the audacity of hope....nt

[milkyway]

76. Um, Herm...South Carolina was the fourth contest with almost the entire country to follow, meaning

it was important as a momentum builder. PA is near the end of the schedule, making it far less important in terms of affecting contests to follow, and Hillary is behind by 170 pledged delegates.

Yep, Hillary should do very well in PA. Unfortunately for her, most, if not all, of her gains will be negated by the subsequent contests in NC and IND. Likewise, her probable gains in Kentucky will be negated by Oregon on the same day, and her gains in West Virginia will be negated by Montana and South Dakota.

The faster she trys to run, the more she seems to be running in place. Oh, the pain of running a fifteen-state strategy.

[milkyway]

77. And Obama won more yesterday in Iowa than Clinton did in Ohio, where she took a confetti shower

to celebrate her monumental victory.

[adoraz]

78. can't rely on a 30% win

The highest poll I have seen has had her at 20% up. The average is about 16%. she will win, but I'm guessing about half of what you think.

See, there are 2 huge problems if she wins big...

1. This is the end, it isn't going to make enough of an impact. SC was right before Super Tuesday.
2. People are all EXPECTING a huge win from her in PA. I don't know anyone who thinks Obama will win PA. For this to happen she would need a HUGE win (like you say), and I don't think that is possible.

[jackson_dem]

88. The latest poll has hur up 26 with 14% undecided

Assuming the undecideds break like everyone else that would bring her to 65-35--just as Herman predicted.

[joshcryer]

90. Undecideds always break for Hillary at the last minute.

This was testified in all the states she was going to "lose" but somehow managed to win. Exit polls always show Hillary picking up the last day deciders.

Most of the kids and independents want to vote for Obama already, they aren't undecided.

[CarbonDate]

100. Except Wisconsin, where they all broke for Obama.

I'm sure I could find other examples that disprove your BS, but... nah.

[PaDem]

98. better look for some updated polls then.........

26??

[mdmc]

82. lets all pray for a BO Blowout

so we can send HRC back to NY and the Bigdog can start prowling with the Gov...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

84. Way To Shit On The Legally Blind Guy

~

[mdmc]

86. they call that a "HOT LUNCH"

I doubt Paterson is in to it, but the Big Dog most likely both give and take

[DemocratSinceBirth]

89. Dirty Sanchez Fan I Presume

Wow

[SoCalDem]

92. Legally blind people in public office get a free :"Cheat on your wife pass"?

whodathunkit

[DemocratSinceBirth]

93. Is David Paterson The First Pol To Cheat On His Spouse?

~

[uponit7771]

85. They'll make up the blow out in NC, who cares? Obama with pledge delegates by 100+ points

[AX10]

87. kick

[SoCalDem]

91. Her numbers are up 5% from last Nov.. His are up 25

She's not "closing the sale".

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?Releas

[harun]

101. Results in Ohio have as much relevance to PA as they do to WI

Different state and no way Hillary wins by more than 10% here. I still think Obama is going to take it. Ohio was a fluke.