My Research on April Polling in Last 6 Elections w/ Incumbents

[tritsofme]

I don't know about all of you, but I always find polls to be very interesting.

That's why I've gone through Gallup data going back to 1972 to try to get a snap shot of where we are now in context to past presidential elections.

I will include the incumbent's approval rating, and head to head matchups.

I hope you all enjoy.


In a poll conducted April 16-18, George W. Bush's approval rating was 52%, and in a trial heat with Senator John Kerry, he lead by a margin of 52-46.

In a poll conducted April 25-28 1996, Bill Clinton's approval rating was 56%, when placed in a trial heat with Bob Dole, Clinton lead by a margin of 56-34.

In a poll conducted April 20-22 1992, George HW Bush's approval rating was 42%, and in a trial heat including Bush, Clinton, and Perot, Bush lead 37-23-23.

April data for 1984 was a little more sketchy, and it was necesary to use two seperate poll dates. In a poll conducted April 25-26 1984, Ronald Reagan's approval rating was 48%. The only other poll close to this time that included a trial heat with Mondale was a poll conducted April 6-9 1984, in which Reagan lead Mondale by a margin of 52-38. It is also prudent to note that when this poll was conducted, Reagan's approval rating was 54%. His approval numbers seemed to have sagged throughout April and May, and gradually rebounded.

In a poll conducted on April 29, 1980, Jimmy Carter's approval rating was 42%. In a trial heat including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and John Anderson, Carter lead 39-29-19.

There was not very much relavent data for April in 1976, so I deffered to a poll conducted on May 17, 1976, in which Gerald Ford's approval rating was 47%. In a trial heat including Carter, Carter lead Ford by a margin of 54-33.

In a poll conducted on April 25, 1972, Richard Nixon's approval rating was 53%. In a trial heat including Richard Nixon, George McGovern, and George Wallace, Nixon led the pack 41-32-15.

[freetobegay]

1. So according to this data

We can assume Bush will be elected?

[tritsofme]

2. Not at all

His approval rating is at the low end of presidents that get reelection.

Also, I wish I had more data available from 1976, as I think it could be the most comparable, what with both incumbents being accidental.

I really wanted to post this to bring some folks back down to earth, I've seen people here claim in the past few days that it might be possible for Kerry to receive 60% of the vote. This is just highly unlikely, and everyone needs to remember that we are in a very polarized nation, and it could swing either way. We must remember that this election will be close, no matter what, and we need to work our asses off for Kerry to see that he gets in the White House.

[mdguss]

3. It's 1980:

Same set of issues, same dynamics (Ralph goes along the John Anderson side), and same general feeling of stagnation. I've thought this one is going to be a reverse of 1980 for about a year and a half, the more I see, the more I think it's 1980 all over again (except this time, the Republican is going to get the boot). Kerry, like Reagan, will be belittled in the media as out of his league and aloof. But when it comes down to it, he's a helluva speaker and a very, very good debater.

[Mz Pip]

4. I heard a pundit

on Hardball last week pretty much say the same thing. She thought it would be much more like 1980 when it came November people decided it was time for a change and Reagan won big.

I sure hope so. I would love to see Kerry win in a landslide. Close will do but I really want to see Bush humiliated.

MzPip
:dem:

[tritsofme]

5. Wasn't Anderson a breakaway Republican?

I really don't remember.

I think the absence of a third party candidate this year that will even get 5% of the vote, and will only hurt us, makes this election different.

Carter's approval rating was in the tank quite early, as opposed to Bush who is still keeping his head above water.

My best predicition is that this election will most closely resemble 2000, and the sheer division and polarization of the electorate is nearly unprecedented.

[yardwork]

6. Anderson was a progressive candidate - he took votes from Carter.

That helped Reagan win in 1980.

This doesn't remind me of 1980. At that time, everybody thought Carter had done a poor job. People weren't surprised when Reagan won. (In retrospect, after learning about Poppy Bush's machinations and Iran-Contra, Carter was set up, but that's a different thread.)

This is very different. This time, we've got about one-third of the country strongly pro-Bush and nothing will change their minds.

It reminds me a little more of 1972. At that time, a lot of people were very angry with Nixon over the war in Vietnam and information about dirty deals that was starting to emerge. Nixon was reelected anyway, but ended up impeached over things he had done prior to the election (and the subsequent cover-up).

I think that this election could go that way. Chimpy could be reelected, but if he is, the dirt will continue to trickle out, even if Congress is still controlled by Republicans.

Every election is different, though. It's difficult to predict based on the past.

[mdguss]

7. Anderson was a Republican:

Who couldn't stomach Reagan because he was a fiscal conservative and social liberal. I'd say he probably took more votes away from Reagan than Carter--remember that 1980 was the year of the "Reagan Democrat." I'd guess a fair number of Republicans left to vote for Anderson--those that left, were old line moderates. This year, there will be Democrats that go vote for Ralph. They'll be old line liberals. Anderson recieved 6 percent of the vote.

[Nicholas_J]

11. However

Given Kerry's current lead in the 17 battleggoud states, he is securely ahead in 11 of these states giving him a secure 186 electoral votes to Bush's secure 183. With the other 6 battleground states that Kerry is ahead in, if the election were held today, Kerry would win the presidency in the elctoral college, even if he did not win the popular vote.

[tritsofme]

14. Wouldn't that be a glorious irony! nt

[TheStateChief]

8. Not to drop a bomb on your research

which was very good and very much appreciated, but do you know which of the challengers had locked up the nomination in April? I had heard that this is the first time a challenger had been selected so early. I say this because the polls before the nominee is selected are pretty meaningless. Do you have access to the poll results at the time the people you reference had locked up the nomination?

[tritsofme]

9. If someone could tell me when

each of the challengers locked up their respective nominations, I'd be more than happy to post a snapshot of those elections at those times.

[Nicholas_J]

13. Someone posted the charts from gallop

For the polls for all of the past campaigns from January-November and in those charts, the incumbents were always head throught most of the campaign cycle, usually ten points or more ahead of the opposition, so Kerry being within 5 points of the president in national polls makes this an unusual election cycle. The fact that Kerry leads in 17 battleground staes and has a significant solid lead in 8 states with some of the largest numbers of electoral votes gives Kerry a very winning strategy. He is ahead of Bush in the electoral college with 11 states while Bush has had to fight in 18 states in order to be 3 electoral votes behind Kerry. If Kerry focuses on the other six battleground states and bring them securely under his wing, Kerry wins the electoral college hands down.

[tritsofme]

10. bump

[GOPBasher]

12. Wow, Bush is in much worse shape than any of those incumbents.

The only exception being Ford in '76. So, I think we're in good shape.

[tritsofme]

15. The strange thing to me,

is that Bush keeps a reasonably high approval rating, while his head to head is bad for an incumbent.

Because by now, Bush41 and Carter's approval ratings were in the toilet.

Maybe this is just the calm before the storm...

[cindyw]

16. Anyone notice that no candidate has ever been in the 40% range

like Kerry is now. And not to mention beating him in some polls.