Delegate, popular vote scenarios just got a lot worse for Hillary

[ProSense]

Obama expands delegate lead over Clinton

By MIKE GLOVER, Associated Press Writer Sun Mar 16, 5:10 AM ET

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat Barack Obama expanded his fragile lead in delegates over rival Hillary Rodham Clinton on Saturday, picking up nine delegates as Iowa activists took the next step in picking delegates to the national convention.

More than half the 14 delegates allocated to John Edwards on the basis of caucus night projections switched Saturday to Obama.

Iowa Democratic Party officials said that with all of the delegates picked, Obama claimed 52 percent of the delegates elected at county conventions on Saturday, compared with 32 percent for Clinton. Some of the delegates picked at Saturday's conventions were sticking with Edwards, even though he's dropped from the race since Iowa held its caucuses in January.

Democratic Party projections said the results mean Obama increased by nine the number of delegates he collects from the state, getting a total of 25 compared with 14 for Clinton and six for Edwards.

Twelve automatic delegates bring the state's total to 57. Obama has been endorsed by four of those and Clinton three, with the remainder uncommitted.

link

Pledged Delegates
Obama 1415
Clinton 1245
Obama + 170

Total Delegates
Obama 1628
Clinton 1493
Obama + 135

link

Summary of tables (recalculated with new delegate counts) show Obama's delegate lead in every scenario:

Total Delegates: 4048 ** W/o FL & MI - Current Status ** Needed: 2024.5
Pledged Delegates Obama 1415, Clinton 1245
Superdelegates Obama 213, Clinton 248

Total Delegates: 4415 ** With FL & MI included - Results upheld** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1482, Clinton 1423
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Total Delegates:4415 ** With FL & MI (Obama gets MI 55) ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1537, Clinton 1423
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Total Delegates: 4415 ** With MI & FL 50/50 ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1565, Clinton 1395
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Total Delegates: 4309.5 ** MI 50/50 FL 1/2 Vote ** Needed: 2155
Pledged Delegates Obama 1415, Clinton 1245
Superdelegates Obama 213, Clinton 248

Total Delegates: 4415 ** FL & MI will Re-Vote ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1415, Clinton 1245
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Source: Total and needed delegates

Popular Vote Total
13,281,132 (49.5%)
12,577,409 (46.9%)
Obama +703,523 (+2.6%)

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*
13,615,217 49.5%
12,801,470 46.6%
Obama +813,747 (+2.9%)

Popular Vote (w/FL)
13,857,346 (48.5%)
13,448,395 (47.1%)
Obama +408,951 (+1.4%)

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*
14,191,431 (48.5%)
13,672,256 46.8%
Obama +519,175 (+1.8%)

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)**
13,857,346 (47.5%)
13,776,704 (47.3%)
Obama +80,642 (+0.2%)

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*
14,191,431 (47.6%)
14,000,565 (46.9%)
Obama +190,866 (+0.6)

link

Previous assessment

[ProSense]

1. While everyone is talking PA (where Obama will do well) there's the other big state: NC n/t

[XemaSab]

2. I think NC is VERY favorable to Obama

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

6. Last poll shows NC as +8.2% Obama

Looking good!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

[XemaSab]

8. It's going to be 60/40

if not 65/35. Or even 70/30.

Hillary got 27% in South Carolina and 35% in Virginia.

I'm figuring North Carolina's going to fall right in line.

[phrigndumass]

3. Thanks ProSense!

Big thumbs up for the work.

:thumbsup:

[Scurrilous]

4. K & R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

5. Real Clear Politics link has tons of info

Also like how they are weighting and averaging the polls for Pennsylvania. It's worth it to add that site to our daily news round.

[IndianaGreen]

7. And they have links to good articles as well

The math doesn't lie, the only way for Hillary to win is by doing a Katherine Harris.

[Voice for Peace]

9. Thanks! k&r

[RiverStone]

10. kicked

Thanks :hi:

[donheld]

11. K & R

[grantcart]

12. Chuck Todd also projecting 1 delegate loss by Hillary

Chuck Todd: "The Clinton and Obama campaigns just got done fighting over Iowa... again! The state's 99 county Democratic parties held conventions today and the two campaigns were actively fighting to gain even more pledged delegates. At stake: the 14 pledged delegates John Edwards earned during the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses."

"Tonight, the Obama campaign claimed a gain of 7 pledged delegates, added to the 16 they earned on Jan. 3. Obama's manager, David Plouffe, also said their math had Clinton actually losing one of her 15 delegates that she garnered on Jan. 3. BTW, if the 7 number is accurate, it would be two short of what Clinton netted out of Ohio."

The Clinton campaign disputes losing any delegates but admits Obama gained.

Update: Todd confirms Obama won 7 new delegates and says Clinton also gained one. There are still six Edwards delegates up for grabs at the convention.

Update II: Todd notes revised numbers today: Obama +9, Clinton -1