THE MATH – Sunday, March 16 – Polls and “The Magic Number”

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Sunday, March 16 – Polls and “The Magic Number”

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NOTE: The calculations in this post are taken from Friday’s THE MATH and adjusted for Iowa’s delegate revisions from Saturday. For more information and to see the calculations and sources for yourself, visit this link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5079171

And for the link to the spreadsheet:
http://www.box.net/shared/xnx7q7hk0o

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With about 87% of the pledged delegates chosen, I’ve been wanting to look at polls for upcoming races to determine what the race might look like with 100% of the pledged delegates in, and use that information to come up with a “magic number” of remaining superdelegates needed for each candidate to win the nomination.

Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.

Here’s what we have after taking the polls below this section into consideration:

Obama’s Magic Number – 119 of 333 remaining superdelegates needed, or 35.7%
Clinton’s Magic Number – 231 of 333 remaining superdelegates needed, or 69.4%

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Taken from these polls:

Pennsylvania (April 22)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Clinton as +16.0%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Guam (May 3)
No Poll

Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls shows Senator Obama with +15.0%
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html

North Carolina (May 6)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Obama as +8.2%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

West Virginia (May 13)
Mark Blankenship Enterprises (as reported in the Charleston Daily Mail) shows Senator Clinton with +21.0%
http://www.dailymail.com/News/election08/200802260192

Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll

Oregon (May 20)
Riley Research Polls have Senator Clinton as +8.0%
http://www.rileyresearch.com/polls/2008_1_31_riley_report.pdf

Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll

Montana (June 3)
Mason-Dixon shows Senator Clinton with +12.0%
http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/01/02/news/state/16-polls.txt

South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll

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If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!


(On Edit: Add the word "needed" to the magic numbers, for clarification)

[leftofcool]

1. I hope your math is this good in the GE

I really do

[phrigndumass]

4. I'll be here for the GE with the math

Wouldn't dream of being anywhere else ... thanks!

:hi:

[adoraz]

2. A lot of those polls

are very outdated, so I highly doubt some like Oregon or Montana will go that way.

[phrigndumass]

3. I agree - we need updated polls

I'm hoping others can share links.

:hi:

[adoraz]

15. yeah sadly I haven't seen any

which is surprising that polling places keep doing nation wide and polls of PA. why not do polls of places like Oregon??? they could be the first to do post Super Tuesday polls of these places.

[phrigndumass]

5. bump

[phrigndumass]

12. bump

[phrigndumass]

14. bump

[stahbrett]

6. K & R (nt)

[AlinPA]

7. Your information is very much appreciated. Thank you for your time and effort.

[Scurrilous]

8. Thanks phrigndumass.

:thumbsup:

[1776Forever]

9. Link for latest polls from Real Clear Politics - You might have this one.....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[phrigndumass]

11. What I like about RCP ...

... is the way they average and weight the different polls, all in one place. Thanks!

[FogerRox]

13. What I dont like about RCP is they mix polls with different methodology

[phrigndumass]

10. ProSense has updated current statistics today

in this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5107645

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

16. Nice work. Thanks!