Toomey/Specter primary

[ButterflyBlood]

has there been any results yet?

[ewagner]

1. Test of my theory

I think this race will be a great test of my theory that the insurgents are more motivated than the status quo . IOW Toomey's forces are more motivated than Spectre's. The whole race will be determined by the level of turnout. One news agency (NBC ,I think) said that they expected less than 1/3 of the State's registered Republican voters to turn out. That would be bad news for Spectre.

[dolstein]

2. Typically, results aren't reported until AFTER the polls close

Perhaps you're thinking about exit polls. We probably won't see the first of those until early afternoon, if at all.

[flpoljunkie]

3. From the National Review's The Corner: No exit polls

Tuesday, April 27, 2004

TOOMEY UPDATE
The campaign staff is upbeat. "I really like our chances," says press secretary Joe Sterns. Adds campaign manager Mark Dion: "Everything has been pointing in our direction for a few weeks. Tomorrow we'll be planning for the general election." There are no exit polls in the Pennsylvania Senate primary, so nobody will know the result until the precincts close at 8 pm tonight and the returns begin to come in. Pat Toomey is spending much of today on talk radio and travelling around the central part of the state. He will vote at 3 pm and then prepare for what he hopes will be a victory celebration in Fogelsville, just a bit west of Allentown. "I don't think we're going to be up late," says Dion. "We're going to win this surprisingly early." Cross your fingers!
Posted at 11:36 AM

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

[JI7]

4. I hope Specter wins

while many say toomey will be easier to beat in november, i still don't want to risk him actually winning and getting in the Senate. with rick santorum being elected in that state i don't entirely trust them to vote against and not elect toomey for being a right wing extremist.

[lovedems]

5. I hate to be excited for an ultra conservative republican, it just

doesn't feel natural! This would be a huge blow the * team if Spectre takes a fall! Democrats would vote in force if they thought they had a shot at a senate seat! I think team chimp are sweating this one alot!

[JHBowden]

6. I'm rooting for Toomey.

Specter is almost impossible to beat. We can use Specter's own ads against Toomey however in the regular election.

[napi21]

7. I know there aren't exit polls, but isn't the media saying anything

about "turnout looks high (low) or something? I can't believe, even in Pgh., that the media isn't paying any attention to at least the turnout.

[JI7]

10. when the democartic pres nomination primary was still competitive

there were some with inside info posting exit poll results on kerry's site blog. we had to wait until real results came in to see if they were accurate or not, but turned out to be accurate . i'm sure most exit polls were over for the pres primary. but with the specter toomey thing being a big race, i assume there are some who are doing exit polls in pa. maybe there is a website somewhere listing the exit poll results as they come in.

[Lugnut]

15. It was dead

At my polling place. My daughter said the same thing about hers. We're in two different locations in Luzerne Co.

When I went to vote my polling place had been moved. It was no big deal but I thought that was worth mentioning.

[WI_DEM]

8. any chance Arlen will run as an Independent if he loses the primary?

that could hurt the democrats because the rightwing will stick with Toomey while moderates would be split between Hoeffel and Specter.

[ButterflyBlood]

9. I don't think that's even possible

since the filing date is past.

[AP]

12. If the filing date is past, then Specter must have filed since he's

running in the primary and plans to win it.

[NewJerseyDem]

23. Filing deadline is August 2nd

Dcpoliticalreport.com says that August 2nd is the filing deadline for independents. The filing deadline that occurred was for the primary not the general. A lot of states make the independent's filing deadline be the day of the primary but that doesn't appear to be the case for Pennsylvania.

[Mattforclark]

11. when do polls close?

anyone know?

[CityDem]

13. Polls close at 8 PM Eastern

I hoping for a Toomey victory - he will be easy pickings in the general election.

[Vote Democratic2004]

14. I see Specter going down (too bad, really)

[frank frankly]

16. don't know...but i voted for DK today!

boo-yah!

[Finch]

17. Spectre was a "good" GOP senator...

...he was hardly a liberal as Toomey a ledges, but he cared and was principled and that was good, I hope that Spectre somehow wins this contest as I prefer him over Hoeffel, simply because Hoeffel seems uninteresting and lacklusta, were it Toomey v Hoeffel I’d go for Hoeffel in a heart beat but in this case I'd go for Spectre because he has generally served his state very well in the past and would probably continue to... that said I dearly want to retake the senate but I want it to be won on the issues not because we have the least weak candidate... it will be a sad day if the GOP can't even tolerate "moderates" such as Spectre as, as with both party’s, it is only by appearing moderate that either party wins nationally and these conservatives in PA don’t seem to realise this...

[goobergunch]

18. Nothing yet

http://web.dos.state.pa.us/perl/elections/elec_results/dsf/statewide1.cgi?choice=USS&eyear=2004&etype=P
http://www.kywonline.com/election/race1.htm

[TakebackAmerica]

19. Specter is the last of a dying breed.

He was one of the few non wingnut Republican.

[dolstein]

20. No he isn't

There's still Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe and Lincoln Chafee. Of course, they're next on the Club for Growth's hit list. And once they've been knocked off, they'll go after McCain.

Still, the attitude of the Club for Growth isn't all that different from the attitude of many DU'ers, who would like to kick Joe Lieberman and Evan Bayh out of the party because they vote the liberal position "only" 85% of the time.

[TakebackAmerica]

22. Yep.

Rep. Flake (R) was gonna take on McCain, that at the last minute, he was bowed out.

Stephen Moore(Club for Growth) is close to having bagged a huge RINO.

[Hippo_Tron]

25. Well, Zell Miller deserves a swift kick in the balls

And with the exception of the fact that he has yet to back Kerry, Lincoln Chafee is basically the GOP's Zell Miller. Collins and Snowe are thier equivalents of John Breaux, and Joe Lieberman. Vonovich is sorta like their Bayh/Nelson.

[mndemocrat_29]

26. Collins and Snowe are much more liberal than Voinovich

And Bayh is more liberal than Breaux-and which Nelson are you referring to?

[Hippo_Tron]

60. The one who voted for the tax cuts (n/t)

[dolstein]

34. Stop grouping Lieberman with Breaux

Lieberman's a flaming liberal compared to John Breaux. On the other hand, your comparison of Collins and Snowe with Breaux is a fair one.

[Finch]

81. True...

...its strange how many DU'ers howl at the moon over how extreme and intolerant of moderates the GOP is, when they are just as intolerant of democratic moderates themselves...

[Hippo_Tron]

24. Specter Sucks

I'll admit that he's cast a few votes that I like and I'd rather him as Judiciary Committee Chair than Kyl but he is not nearly as liberal as Chafee, Snowe, or Collins and by in large he's still a Republican. The only reason there's a serious challenge against him is because he voted against the tax cuts. I'd much rather senator Hoeffel than senator Specter personally.

[NewJerseyDem]

28. He didn't even vote against the tax cuts

He just voted to make them smaller. Specter is willing to change his votes on issues to help him win elections. My guess is that he will become more liberal for his last 6 years in office if he wins reelection. Still, Hoeffel would be a better senator and we definitely need this this seat because there is a real possibility that we will take back the Senate. Then, the chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee will be a democrat which would a lot better than Specter.

[mndemocrat_29]

30. It would be the great Pat Leahy of Vermont

[goobergunch]

21. 3 Of 9416 (0%) Precincts Reporting

Winner Candidate Votes Vote %
Arlen SPECTER 110 55%
Pat TOOMEY 89 45%

http://abclocal.go.com/three/wpvi/election/race2.htm

[mndemocrat_29]

27. Anyone hear about the Schwartz/Torsella primary

That's going on in PA-13?

[NewJerseyDem]

31. 6% of precincts reporting

Torsella 56%
Schwartz 44%

That is according to Ourcampaigns.com.

[mndemocrat_29]

33. I hope Schwartz wins this

I really like her.

[NewJerseyDem]

35. Here's the link to those results

This website has the most updated results I can find.

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3026855/detail.html

[goobergunch]

41. This works better, I find

http://www.kywonline.com/election/race4.htm

[ButterflyBlood]

72. Torsella is good too though

but either one would have the edge over the Repuke candidate.

[mndemocrat_29]

29. Specter leads in Early Returns

Here's a link:http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040428/ap_on_el_se/pennsylvania_senate&cid=683&ncid=1963&sid=96378798

Sen. Arlen Specter, one of the Republican Party's leading moderates, tried to beat back a surprisingly stiff challenge in Pennsylvania's GOP primary Tuesday from a conservative congressman who branded him a RINO — Republican In Name Only.

With 8 percent of precincts reporting, Specter led with 16,761 votes, or 56 percent, to Rep. Pat Toomey's 13,047 votes, or 44 percent.

[ithacan]

32. If Specter wins will the freepers stay home?

Will all the pro-Toomey crazies stay home, depriving Specter of votes?

[NewJerseyDem]

36. 25% reporting

Arlen Specter 55,678 53%
Pat Toomey 49,430 47%

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3242632/detail.html

[NewJerseyDem]

37. PA-13 democratic primary 60% reporting

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3242585/detail.html

Allyson Y. Schwartz 4,999 46%
Joe Torsella 5,987 54%

[NewJerseyDem]

38. PA-GOP-House-District 9 12% reporting

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3242645/detail.html

Bill Shuster 2,960 46%
Michael DelGrosso 3,471 54%

[ButterflyBlood]

53. Interesting, isn't Shuster the incumbent?

Unfortunately I think this is a safely Republican district so it will stay in GOP hands regardless of who wins the primary.

[NewJerseyDem]

39. PA-GOP-House-District 13 60% reporting

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3242645/detail.html

Al Taubenberger 2,728 42%
Ellen Bard 803 12%
Melissa Brown 2,972 46%

[NewJerseyDem]

40. Precincts Reporting - 2980 out of 9416 - 32%

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3242632/detail.html

Arlen Specter 88,312 53%
Pat Toomey 79,865 47%

[NewJerseyDem]

42. Precincts Reporting - 4035 out of 9416 - 43%

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/3242632/detail.html

Arlen Specter 141,627 52%
Pat Toomey 132,074 48%

[IronLionZion]

44. Precincts Reporting - 4798 out of 9416 - 51% Specter increasing lead

Specter 285,055 60%
Toomey 187,437 40%
Precincts Reporting - 4798 out of 9416 - 51%

[NewJerseyDem]

46. Numbers are coming in very weird

One minute the race is 60-40 then it is 52-48. It doesn't really make any sense.

[IronLionZion]

47. Well as long as it adds up to 100

eh whatever. It's definitely exciting.

[IronLionZion]

43. Precincts Reporting - 4035 out of 9416 - 43%

Specter 141,627 52%
Toomey 132,074 48%
Precincts Reporting - 4035 out of 9416 - 43%

This is so exciting.

oh and check out the PA forum for results from other PA races. District 9 looks like a takeover by Michael DelGrosso and the Sanitation referendum has passed.

[IronLionZion]

45. Precincts Reporting - 5380 out of 9416 - 57% Specter 58%

Specter 317,983 58%
Toomey 226,068 42%
Precincts Reporting - 5380 out of 9416 - 57%


This is so exciting! I think I may have a cardiac arrest soon! :bounce:

[Zynx]

48. 64% 55 to 45 Specter leading

[Zynx]

49. Off NRO:

Bucks County Reporting Error Bucks County has erroneously reported 95,000 votes for Arlen Specter... stay tuned as the numbers are adjusted.

[NewJerseyDem]

50. Bucks County accidentally put in too many votes for Specter

According to politicspa.com the vote totals have to be readjusted because of this error.

[IronLionZion]

51. yeah I bet it was an accident

hmm...interesting

[NewJerseyDem]

54. I'm sure it was an accident

It isn't very easy to just add 95,000 votes and get away with it. Someone would notice that Specter did so well in one county and that voter turnout was amazingly high. However you would think that they would make sure the numbers were right before reporting them.

[IronLionZion]

52. 68% reporting 54 %Specter

Specter 317,983 54%
Toomey 276,123 46%
Precincts Reporting - 6395 out of 9416 - 68%

[NewJerseyDem]

56. I wonder if those include corrected numbers from Bucks County n/t

[confusionisnext]

55. 73% reporting, Toomey 47.8 Specter 52.2

HOEFFEL, JOSEPH M. (DEM)
234,481

TOOMEY, PAT (REP)
137,035

SPECTER, ARLEN (REP)
149,876

[IronLionZion]

58. It's nice to see Republicans divided

Whatever happens today, I hope we have a Kerry Hoeffel sweep in November.

[Township75]

57. 77% Reporting-51 Spec - 49 Toomey

[Zynx]

59. Now that's CLOSE.

[IronLionZion]

61. so is this: District 9 house

Dist. 9 U.S. House - Rep.
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Shuster 25,082 49%
DelGrosso 25,750 51%
Precincts Reporting - 369 out of 508 - 73%

Be still my beating heart!

[IronLionZion]

62. razor thin

I'm on the edge of my seat. my district's race is extremely close too!

yeargh!

[chikin]

63. Web site for updates?

Anyone got a Web site to check for updates?

[IronLionZion]

65. try this one

http://www.wjactv.com/politics/3031281/detail.html

[Township75]

64. AHHHHH! WTF is taking so long, count the F'en votes!!!

!!!!

[confusionisnext]

66. 11:20pm, 49.3% Toomey, 50.7% Specter

(obviously, the Department of State's % reporting is f-ed up)

263.90% of the statewide voting districts currently reporting***
*** Election results were last updated at 11:20:01 PM on 04/27/2004 ***

HOEFFEL, JOSEPH M. (DEM)
391,099



TOOMEY, PAT (REP)
289,401



SPECTER, ARLEN (REP)
297,866

[IronLionZion]

67. What kind of voting was it? electronic?

cause that's supposed to have fast counting.

I voted by absentee because I'm in Rochester.

[Township75]

68. Knowing PA, it is mouse-in-an-excercise-wheel technology counting...

as much as I love PA, this state is soo much in the dark ages.

[Mattforclark]

69. 81% reporting, 50/50 Specter up by 6000 votes

Arlen Specter* 356,554 50%
Pat Toomey 350,140 50%

[IronLionZion]

70. OMG!

I don't think I can handle this much excitement. :bounce:

[Mattforclark]

71. 85% in, Specter by 5000 votes...

[chikin]

73. Did * or any other high-ranking Republican campaign for Specter?

I was just wondering about that. I haven't followed the race closely, but it seems to me like Toomey is definitely beatable in November. That could turn the extremely close Senate over to the Democrats. On the other hand, Specter has voted against the Administration's wishes in the past. So what's * to do? Stump for Specter, who may win in November and try to preserve the Republican majority in the Senate, or campaign for Toomey and get a * lapdog but risk losing to a Democrat in the November election?

[IronLionZion]

74. Bush, Giuliani, Santorum, et all

the machine was out in full force behind Specter. So much money.

It's sad really. The party has to prop up the sensible guy while the radical extremist has massive grass-roots support.

The Republican party HATES Specter and only props him up because they don't want to lose his seat. Patrick Leahy will take over in the Senate Judiciary commitee.

[IronLionZion]

75. If only I was a Republican again

then my vote would make the difference. Not that I care who wins. I just love close elections.

[IronLionZion]

76. Independent429 predicts: Specter's got this

Specter 434,398 50%
Toomey 426,087 50%
Precincts Reporting - 8343 out of 9416 - 89%

It was an exciting race guys, but I expect Specter pulls a squeaker of a win.

That ass-clown Shuster seems to have one my district.
Dist. 9 U.S. House - Rep.
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Shuster 37,460 51%
DelGrosso 36,658 49%
Precincts Reporting - 474 out of 508 - 93%

the damn incumbent shitheads remain

[elperromagico]

77. I believe Specter's being projected as the winner now. n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

78. I think a Toomey win would've been better, but a divided GOP...

Is still good. If Toomey had won, moderate Republicans would've stayed home on election day, thus making PA safer for Kerry. But now the conservatives are pissed and might be staying home as well, or supporting Hoeffel.

[elperromagico]

79. It's usually easier to beat an ideological extremist

than it is to beat an ideological moderate. But I think, if Hoeffel is strong enough, he could topple Specter.

[IronLionZion]

80. Conservative will be there for King George

They worship that guy even if he and the Republican machine screwed their boy Toomey.

[rmjohnston]

82. I Wish Toomey Had Won - Specter Would Have Turned on Bush

If Toomey had won, Specter would have turned around and stabbed * in the back -- possibly costing him the election. Plus, the press would have had a field day with it.

Also, we could have picked up a now-safe GOP Senate seat in PA -- Toomey couldn't have won statewide.

Just my opinion.