QC
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:43 PM
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Poll question: How Many States Will Obama Win This Fall? |
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Assuming that he is the nominee--a virtual certainty at this point--and that McCain remains the GOP nominee, how many states do you think Obama will carry?
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joeybee12
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:44 PM
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1. 10-25, on the low end, Dukakis re-do...n/t |
krawhitham
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Sun Mar-16-08 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
24. I think you are wrong, but only takes 11 |
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Once McCain is on the chopping block he will be lucky to get any states, multiple affairs, Keating Five, HIS crazy ass spiritual guide
anyway
California Texas New York Florida Illinois Pennsylvania Ohio Michigan Georgia New Jersey North Carolina
271
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Arugula Latte
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
28. No, that scenario is if we're stupid enough to nominate Hillary the Hated. nt |
meow mix
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:34 PM
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31. yeah, you'll all see when independently minded repubs cross over. |
meow mix
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #31 |
33. oops, i meant for that to go down under my MT, GA, IND, OH, TX, LA, SC, NV reply. |
justinsb
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:45 PM
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2. He's going to be the Nominee |
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The Clinton campaign is all over but the shouting.
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peace13
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
17. And there will be lots of that! n/t |
youknowmenotdlc
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:46 PM
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tekisui
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
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:thumbsup:
President Barack Obama.
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Zynx
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:46 PM
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shayes51
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:46 PM
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5. None because he will not be the nominee. |
Nitrogenica
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Sun Mar-16-08 06:00 PM
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MethuenProgressive
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:47 PM
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6. Doesn't matter how many. Matters which ones. |
Zynx
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
7. Our base is around 15 states. |
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Theirs is around 20 states. This could very well be a period like 1876-1896 where all the elections are pretty close.
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Demeter
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:49 PM
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McCain Will Do a McGovern |
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And with any luck, we won't have a Tricky Dick emulator in office.
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Kurt_and_Hunter
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:49 PM
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8. Reality check for those answering "40 or more"... How many states do you think Kerry won? |
slick8790
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
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But he was an extraordinarily weak candidate who ran a shoddy campaign. All signs point to Obama outperforming him by miles. My guess is Kerry would not have survived an extended primary like this.
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jackson_dem
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #32 |
36. No. Kerry led Bush by 8 points at this time in 2004. Obama leads McCain by 0.3 |
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As the "new" candidate in a change year Obama should be well ahead of McCain at this point. He once was. He once led McCain by over nine points but has steadily seen his electability decline as his unfavorable rating, which had only one place to go, have risen over the past year.
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slick8790
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Mon Mar-17-08 06:00 AM
Response to Reply #36 |
38. Obama has also been vetted far more than Kerry was at this time. |
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He's a much stronger candidate from this primary.
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cali
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:49 PM
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9. I don't have a crystal ball but I think he can win |
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the states that JK won plus some or all of the following: VA, IA, CO, NM.
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jlake
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
16. If he doesn't flame out in grand style (which I think is a very real possibility) |
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I would tend to agree. It would be really nice if we could get OH and/or FL as insurance... but I don't see it happening.
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cali
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Sun Mar-16-08 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
23. I don't see him flaming out |
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I'm beginning to suspect that he has a large component of teflon in his composition. I could be wrong, and we'll actually know that within the next few weeks. If he's going to flame out, it's going to happen in the near future.
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meow mix
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:50 PM
Response to Original message |
10. MT, GA, IND, OH, TX, LA, SC, NV i believe will go blue running Obama |
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Edited on Sun Mar-16-08 05:51 PM by meow mix
possibly more..
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jlake
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
12. NV maybe (would for Hill too) but OH, TX, LA, IN, - um, no. |
boston bean
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
13. Quick, get meow a glass of water she needs to take her reality pills right now! |
jlake
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
14. Get her a few gallons to wash down that barrel of meds she needs. |
Carrieyazel
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
26. Obama would lose all of those, most of them are basically impossible. |
okasha
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
27. You're the melamine flavor, right? |
jlake
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:51 PM
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11. I don't know - but I do know that anyone voting 40+ needs to wake up.... |
HCE SuiGeneris
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
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I can only surmise that answer comes from the racist/troll faction.
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Kurt_and_Hunter
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Sun Mar-16-08 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
20. Or the "people who were adults in 1984 faction" |
QC
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Sun Mar-16-08 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
21. That was my first election. |
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I'll never forget sitting up watching the returns and seeing my candidate carry *one* state (and D.C.).
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HCE SuiGeneris
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Sun Mar-16-08 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
22. McCain is NOT God Raygun, |
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Edited on Sun Mar-16-08 06:16 PM by BushDespiser12
and Obama's charisma and support can hardly be compared to Mondale's
A wildly popular incumbent vs. a nation disgusted at the current party and its "leader". Not a fair analogy.
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slick8790
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
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Obama has a movement behind him unlike any Dem Candidate I can remember. Mondale did not.
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Danger Mouse
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Sun Mar-16-08 05:59 PM
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18. probably all the states kerry won...and hopefully more than that... |
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i'm hoping people see through mccain and realize that this 'maverick' has had his lips planted firmly on bush's ass from day one
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Carrieyazel
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:00 PM
Response to Original message |
25. Obama will win about 20 states, which won't be enough. |
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Edited on Sun Mar-16-08 08:02 PM by Carrieyazel
The Democratic base is 17 states, (all the states Kerry won by 3+ points). I'll go ahead and give him the base, and add Wisconsin and Iowa. The 20th state would be Pennsylvania, and he could scrape by there in a general, the 21st could be New Hampshire, (but McCain is strong there).
I'll go ahead and say 19 states for now, PA and NH will be an uphill climb for him.
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jackson_dem
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
37. Obama would lose Florida and Pennsylvania and probably also Ohio |
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We need to take two of those three to win, assuming we hold onto Michigan. And this is assuming he somehow manages to survive the coming swiftboating of him as racist against whites in the fall...
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metalluk
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:17 PM
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Unless he decides to run as an independent.
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XemaSab
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Sun Mar-16-08 08:22 PM
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30. The view from NorCal: |
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